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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Variables and Their Effects on The Development of Bank Credit and Productive Sectors in Iraq Using a Path Analysis Model
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This study aims to measure and analyze the direct and indirect effects of the financial variables, namely (public spending, public revenues, internal debt, and external debt), on the non-oil productive sectors with and without bank credit as an intermediate variable, using quarterly data for the period (2004Q1–2021Q4), converted using Eviews 12. To measure the objective of the study, the path analysis method was used using IBM SPSS-AMOS. The study concluded that the direct and indirect effects of financial variables have a weak role in directing bank credit towards the productive sectors in Iraq, which amounted to (0.18), as a result of market risks or unstable expectations in the economy. In addition to the weak credit ratings of borr

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Performance Evaluation of a Triple Concentric Tube Heat Exchanger Using Deionized Water and Oil-40
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This study examines experimentally the performance of a horizontal triple concentric tube heat exchanger TCTHE made of copper metal using water as cooling fluid and oil-40 as hot fluid. Hot fluid enters the inner annular tube of the TCTHE in a direction at a temperature of 50, 60 and 70 oC and a flow rate of 20 l/hr. On the other hand, the cooling fluid enters the inner tube and the outer annular tube in the reverse direction (counter current flow) at a temperature of 25 oC and flow rates of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35 l/hr. The TCTHE is composed of three copper tubes with outer diameters of 34.925 mm, 22.25 mm, and 9.525 mm, and thicknesses of 1.27 mm, 1.143 mm, and 0.762 mm, respectively. TCTHE tube's length was 670

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 13 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization of Cutting Parameters for Milling Process of (4032) Al-Alloy using Taguchi-Based Grey Relational Analysis
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The objective of this work is to study the influence of end milling cutting process parameters, tool material and geometry on multi-response outputs for 4032 Al-alloy. This can be done by proposing an approach that combines Taguchi method with grey relational analysis. Three cutting parameters have been selected (spindle speed, feed rate and cut depth) with three levels for each parameter. Three tools with different materials and geometry have been also used to design the experimental tests and runs based on matrix L9. The end milling process with several output characteristics is solved using a grey relational analysis. The results of analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the major influencing parameters on multi-objective response w

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of tax techniques on the quality of services provided to income taxpayers: An exploratory study in a sample of the branches of the General Tax Authority / Baghdad Governorate
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The research aims to demonstrate the impact of tax techniques on the quality of services provided to income taxpayers by studying the correlational and influencing relationships between the exploited variable (tax techniques) and the dependent variable (the quality of services provided to income taxpayers), and in line with the research objectives, the main hypothesis of the research was formulated (there is a relationship Significance between tax techniques and the quality of services provided to income taxpayers) a number of sub-hypotheses emerged from this hypothesis that were stated in the research methodology, and a number of conclusions were reached, the most important of which were (through the use of the correlation coeff

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Wireless Propagation Multipaths using Spectral Clustering and Three-Constraint Affinity Matrix Spectral Clustering
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This study focused on spectral clustering (SC) and three-constraint affinity matrix spectral clustering (3CAM-SC) to determine the number of clusters and the membership of the clusters of the COST 2100 channel model (C2CM) multipath dataset simultaneously. Various multipath clustering approaches solve only the number of clusters without taking into consideration the membership of clusters. The problem of giving only the number of clusters is that there is no assurance that the membership of the multipath clusters is accurate even though the number of clusters is correct. SC and 3CAM-SC aimed to solve this problem by determining the membership of the clusters. The cluster and the cluster count were then computed through the cluster-wise J

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Robot Arm Path Planning Using Modified Particle Swarm Optimization based on D* algorithm
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Abstract

Much attention has been paid for the use of robot arm in various applications. Therefore, the optimal path finding has a significant role to upgrade and guide the arm movement. The essential function of path planning is to create a path that satisfies the aims of motion including, averting obstacles collision, reducing time interval, decreasing the path traveling cost and satisfying the kinematics constraints. In this paper, the free Cartesian space map of 2-DOF arm is constructed to attain the joints variable at each point without collision. The D*algorithm and Euclidean distance are applied to obtain the exact and estimated distances to the goal respectively. The modified Particle Swarm Optimization al

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Environment Friendly Eco - City
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The World witnessed over the past few decades a clear change in the urban existence map, where the number of cities' residents has increased and the cities geographic area expanded, also networks of roads and electric power stations were spread. This extraordinary events caused the drawing of a different identity to the world, race with itself in the field of energy and raw materials consumption. Therefore, the research issue individualizes in the lack of available knowledge concerning the subject of environment friendly ecological urban desiging and planning.So the research aims to define the environmentally friendly eco-city' structural elements and to clarify their most important planning and design foundations. To In

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational spirituality and its implications for organizational performance: A survey of the opinions of employees of the General Company for Food Industries in Abu Ghraib (Baghdad)
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The research discusses with organizational spirituality and its implications on the organizational performance in the General Company for Food Industries in Abu Ghraib (Baghdad). The aim of the research was to determine the contribution of organizational spirituality in the organizational performance of the surveyed company. In order to achieve the objectives of the research، two main hypotheses were adopted. Several sub-hypotheses centered on the relationship between organizational spirituality and organizational performance in terms of its dimensions (Meaning work، self-esteem، community affiliation،

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use some probability amputated models to study the characteristics of health payments in the Iraqi Insurance Company
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Abstract

Due to the lack of previous statistical study of the behavior of payments, specifically health insurance, which represents the largest proportion of payments in the general insurance companies in Iraq, this study was selected and applied in the Iraqi insurance company.

In order to find the convenient model representing the health insurance payments, we initially detected two probability models by using (Easy Fit) software:

First, a single Lognormal for the whole sample and the other is a Compound Weibull  for the two Sub samples (small payments and large payments), and we focused on the compoun

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 13 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Serum Level of TNF-α and IL-17 in Patient Have Chronic Periodontitis Associated Rheumatoid Arthritis
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ABSTRACT Background: chronic periodontitis and rheumatoid arthritis are widely prevalent diseases and are characterized by tissue destruction due to chronic inflammation. Recently, there is growing evidence that the two diseases share many pathological features the aims of the study To determine the periodontal health status in patient have chronic periodontitis with rheumatoid arthritis and compare it with those having chronic periodontitis without Rheumatoid arthritis and determine the serum levels of interleukin -17(IL-17), tumor necrosis factor- alpha (TNF-α ) in both groups and compare with the control group (subject samples neither have periodontitis nor arthritis ) and correlate these immunological markers with the periodontal p

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