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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
PDF Sensing and differentiation between normal flora and pathogenic of E.coli Bacteria using 410 nm diode laser
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Abstract: Background: Optical biosensors offer excellent properties and methods for detecting bacteria when compared to traditional analytical techniques.  It allows direct detection of many biological and chemical materials.  Bacteria are found in the human body naturally non-pathogenic and pathologically, as they are found in other living organisms.  One of these bacteria is Escherichia coli (E. coli) which are found in the human body in its natural and pathogenic form. E.coli bacteria cause many diseases, including Stomach, intestines, urinary system infections, and others. The aim of this study: is sensing and differentiation between normal flora and pathogenic E.coli. Material and method:

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
A careful study of the effect of the infectious diseases and refuge on the dynamical behavior of prey-scavenger modeling
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In this paper, the dynamics of scavenger species predation of both susceptible and infected prey at different rates with prey refuge is mathematically proposed and studied. It is supposed that the disease was spread by direct contact between susceptible prey with infected prey described by Holling type-II infection function. The existence, uniqueness, and boundedness of the solution are investigated. The stability constraints of all equilibrium points are determined. In addition to establishing some sufficient conditions for global stability of them by using suitable Lyapunov functions. Finally, these theoretical results are shown and verified with numerical simulations.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Sentiment Analysis on Roman Urdu Students’ Feedback Using Enhanced Word Embedding Technique
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Students’ feedback is crucial for educational institutions to assess the performance of their teachers, most opinions are expressed in their native language, especially for people in south Asian regions. In Pakistan, people use Roman Urdu to express their reviews, and this applied in the education domain where students used Roman Urdu to express their feedback. It is very time-consuming and labor-intensive process to handle qualitative opinions manually. Additionally, it can be difficult to determine sentence semantics in a text that is written in a colloquial style like Roman Urdu. This study proposes an enhanced word embedding technique and investigates the neural word Embedding (Word2Vec and Glove) to determine which perfo

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
PDF Tunable Optical filters Using Etched Polarization Maintaining Fiber Hybrid Sagnac Interferometer
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: In modern optical communication system, noise rejection multiple access interference (MAI) must be rejected in dense access network (DAN). This paper will study the dual optical band pass and notch filters. They will be extracted with tunable FWHM using 10cm (PMF) with different cladding diameters formed with etching 125μm PMF after immersing it with 40% of hydrofluoric acid (HF). This fiber acts as assessing fiber to perform Sagnac interferometer with splicing regions that placed 12cm (SMF) for performing hybrid Sagnac interferometer that consists of Mach-Zehnder instead of Sagnac loop which is illuminated by using laser source with centroid wavelength of 1546.7nm and FWHM of 286 pm or 9 ns in the time domain. . Firs

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring the Use of Social Media Networks (SMNs) in Knowledge Sharing, by Using Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) A Study Conducted in Some of Iraqi Universities
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   SMNs like Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, WhatsApp,..etc. are among the most popular sites on the Internet. These sites can provide a powerful means of sharing, organizing, finding information and knowledge. The popularity of these sites provides an opportunity to measure the use them in knowledge sharing, which needs a special scale, but unfortunately, there is no special scale for that. Thus, this study supposes to use SCT as a scale to measure the use of SMNs in electronic knowledge sharing due to it has been used to measure knowledge sharing with its traditional form. This study can help the decision-makers to use these SMNs to share the academics’ knowledge in educational institutes to the communi

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Two Educational Models in Acquiring Historical Concepts and Orientation of Fourth Grade Students in History
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The study focuses on Kamez model and the Claus Meyer model of instructional design, which are models that provide the learner with educational experiences to suit the logical information of the learner and the variety of instructional models. Research Objective: The present research aims to identify Limitations of the study. The current research is determined by ((fourth grade preparatory students, the book of the date of the fourth preparatory course)) Chapter II includes Arabic and foreign studies on the model of Kemp and Claus Mayer in the acquisition of concepts and direction towards the material. Chapter III Experimental Design: The researcher adopted an experimental design with two experimental groups and a control group. The resea

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Measurement of Indoor Radon Gas Concentration in same Region of Baghdad Governorate Using CR-39 Nuclear Track Detector
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In this research the activity of radon gas in air in Baghad governorate,Iraq, using “alpha-emitters track registration (CR-39) track detector were measured. This measurement was done for selected areas from Baghdad Governorate, The results obtained shows that the highest average concentrations for Rn-222 is (179.077 Bq/m^3) which was recorded within Al-Shaaib city and less average concentrations was (15.79 Bq/m^3) in the nearby residential area of Baghdad International Airport and the overall average concentrations is (86.508 Bq/m^3) for these regions. Then the radon concentration was measured annual effective dose calculated from radon concentration and found in range from 0.4031 mSv/y to 4.5179 mSv /y with an average value of 2.1824 m

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
World Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences
Detection of JAK2V617F Mutation and Serum Levels of Alkaline Phosphatase and Lactate Dehydrogenase in Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia.
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Chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative neoplasm arises from Bcr-Abl gene translocation (called Ph chromosome) in hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). This genetic abnormality results in constitutive activation of tyrosine kinase and subsequent uncontrol growth and multiplication of granulocytes. The cornerstone in treatment of CML are tyrosine kinase inhibitors, of which imatinib is the most effectively used. JAK2V617F mutation is an acquired single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) occurs in JAK2 gene and is associated with many hematological malignancy other than CML. It was thought that the two genetic abnormalities (Bcr-Abl and JAK2V617F) occur mutually; however, growing body of evidences suggested the reverse. This study a

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectrophotometric and Reverse Flow Injection Method Determination of Nitrazepam in Pharmaceuticals Using O-Coumaric Acid as a New Chromogenic Reagent
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            A spectrophotometric- reverse flow injection analysis (rFIA) method has been proposed for the   determination of Nitrazepam (NIT) in pure and pharmaceutical preparations. The method is based upon the coupling reaction of NIT with a new reagent O-Coumaric acid (OCA) in the presence of sodium periodate in an aqueous solution. The blue color product was measured at 632 nm. The variation (chemical and physical parameters) related with reverse flow system were estimated. The linearity was over the range 15 - 450 µg/mL of NIT with detection limits and limit of quantification of 3.425 and 11.417 µg mL-1 NIT,respectively. The sample throughput of 28 samples

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The archaeological and religious sites on the city of Babylon
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The archaeological and religious sites play a prominent role in the rest of the other tourist activities as cultural and spiritual needs that can not be dispensed with. Archaeological sites represent cultural origins of the nation. Religious sites represent the state of man's orientation to God in places of worship . The focus was on the city of Babylon because it is an ancient city and tourist because of its characteristics and elements. The importance of the city of Babylon is illustrated by highlighting its archeological and religious status through its geographical distribution. This gives the subject special importance for the purpose of knowing the city's important sites. And come out with a number of results and a set of recommend

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