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Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar

Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison with the estimation and forecasting based on criteria ,MAE,MSE , mean absolute error and mean Square error ,  respectively  Compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that CCC is better than DCC

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Enhancement of a Power System Transient Stability Using Static Synchronous Series Compensator SSSC

Static Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) is a well known device for effectively regulating the active power flow in a power system. In this paper, the SSSC linearized power flow equations are incorporated into Newton-Raphson algorithm in a MATLAB written program to investigate the control of active poweer flow and the transient stability of a five bus and a thirty bus IEEE test systems, during abnormal conduction (three phase fault near buses). A comparison of the results obtained for the base case without SSSC and with it to investigate the effectiveness of the device on both of the active power flow and the transient stability.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 17 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
A Study of the electronic structure of CdS Nanocrystals using density functional theory

Density Functional Theory at the generalized-gradient approximation level coupled with large unit cell method is used to simulate the electronic structure of (II-VI) zinc-blende cadmium sulfide nanocrystals that have dimensions 2-2.5 nm. The calculated properties include lattice constant, conduction and valence bands width, energy of the highest occupied orbital, energy of the lowest unoccupied orbital, energy gap, density of states etc. Results show that lattice constant and energy gap converge to definite values. However, highest occupied orbital, lowest unoccupied orbital fluctuates indefinitely depending on the shape of the nanocrystal.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Preparation of Vaccine against Diabetic Foot Pathogenic Bacteria Using Low Level Diode Laser

Background: Since the invention of laser in 1960, lasers have been developed and approved in many fields. Lasers can now be regarded as practical tools with unique properties that have been utilized effectively in several applications in fields of medical and biological sciences.Objectives: The aim of the current study was to preparation of vaccines (live attenuated and killed) by irradiation of the bacteria by the low level diode laser.Methods: six bacterial isolates were isolated from human samples of diabetic foot infections, which used for preparation of vaccines. The experiment was conducted on fifteen adult male rabbits; they were divided into three groups with 5 rabbits each. Blood samples were collected from the marginal ear vein

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 12 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimation of Suaeda aegyptiaca Plant distribution regions at Iraq using RS & GIS Applications

For ecosystem functions factors monitored the natural changing of environmental systems, and the managing ability expectation or prediction the plantation regions, (e.g. desert decreasing, air pollution reducing and weather wet stabilization). How, depends on the ability to understand how a particular ecosystem functions and the automation that control the elements distribution, such as (Suaeda aegyptiaca) plant in this study. Which recognized plants Iraq native, and, that are widely found in some regions of Iraq finding randomly. Amplitude plantations regions and automation wealth can be observed diffusion and growth this plantation, as well as estimated the far-reaching and unknown locations to form control and improve environmental an

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Strong Triple Data Encryption Standard Algorithm using Nth Degree Truncated Polynomial Ring Unit

Cryptography is the process of transforming message to avoid an unauthorized access of data. One of the main problems and an important part in cryptography with secret key algorithms is key. For higher level of secure communication key plays an important role. For increasing the level of security in any communication, both parties must have a copy of the secret key which, unfortunately, is not that easy to achieve. Triple Data Encryption Standard algorithm is weak due to its weak key generation, so that key must be reconfigured to make this algorithm more secure, effective, and strong. Encryption key enhances the Triple Data Encryption Standard algorithm securities. This paper proposed a combination of two efficient encryption algorithms

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Control of Propagation of Salt Wedge by using Roughness Blocks having Different Inclination

The hydraulic conditions of a flow previously proved to be changed when placing large-scale geometric roughness elements on the bed of an open channel. These elements impose more resistance to the flow.  The geometry of the roughness elements, the numbers used, and the configuration are parameters that can affect the hydraulic flow characteristics. The target is to use inclined block elements to control the salt wedge propagation pointed in most estuaries to prevent its negative effects. The Computational Fluid Dynamics CFD Software was used to simulate the two-phase flow in an estuary model. In this model, the used block elements are 2 cm by 3 cm cross-sections with an inclined face in the flow direction, with a length

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Effect of Velocity on Dissolved Oxygen Cathodic Polarization using a Rotating Cylinder Electrode

The aim of the present work to study the effect of changing velocity (Reynold's number) on oxygen cathodic polarization using brass rotating cylinder electrode in 0.1, 0.3 and 0.5N NaCl solutions (PH = 7) at temperatures 40, 50 and 600 C. Cathodic polarization experiments were conducted as a function of electrode rotational speed and concentration.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 24 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimate AR(3) by Using Levinson-Durbin Recurrence & Weighted Least Squares Error Methods

In this study, we investigate about the estimation improvement for Autoregressive model of the third order, by using Levinson-Durbin Recurrence (LDR) and Weighted Least Squares Error ( WLSE ).By generating time series from AR(3) model when the error term for AR(3) is normally and Non normally distributed and when the error term has ARCH(q) model with order q=1,2.We used different samples sizes and the results are obtained by using simulation. In general, we concluded that the estimation improvement for Autoregressive model for both estimation methods (LDR&WLSE), would be by increasing sample size, for all distributions which are considered for the error term , except the lognormal distribution. Also we see that the estimation improve

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 11 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Control on a 2-D Wing Flutter Using an Adaptive Nonlinear Neural Controller

An adaptive nonlinear neural controller to reduce the nonlinear flutter in 2-D wing is proposed in the paper. The nonlinearities in the system come from the quasi steady aerodynamic model and torsional spring in pitch direction. Time domain simulations are used to examine the dynamic aero elastic instabilities of the system (e.g. the onset of flutter and limit cycle oscillation, LCO). The structure of the controller consists of two models :the modified Elman neural network (MENN) and the feed forward multi-layer Perceptron (MLP). The MENN model is trained with off-line and on-line stages to guarantee that the outputs of the model accurately represent the plunge and pitch motion of the wing and this neural model acts as the identifier. Th

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Thermal Buckling of Laminated Composite Plates Using a Simple Four Variable Plate Theory

In this study, the thermal buckling behavior of composite laminate plates cross-ply and angle-ply all edged simply supported subjected to a uniform temperature field is investigated, using a simple trigonometric shear deformation theory. Four unknown variables are involved in the theory, and satisfied the zero traction boundary condition on the surface without using shear correction factors, Hamilton's principle is used to derive equations of  motion depending on a Simple Four Variable Plate Theory for cross-ply and angle-ply, and then solved through Navier's double trigonometric sequence, to obtain critical buckling temperature for laminated composite plates. Effect of changing some design parameters such as, ortho

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