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jeasiq-567
التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Nature of a holy book in the poetry of Ibn Arabi Mohi
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The paper discusses the lack of a uniform definition of politeness due to the constant tension between its universality and language specificity, and argues that some of the theoretical debate could be resolved if the distinction between politeness as a commonsense notion and politeness as a theoretical construct were clearly addressed and acknowledged in the research.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تأثير خصائص السلوك الأخلاقي الجامعي في مستوى الأداء الجامعي "دراسة في عينة من كليات الإدارة والاقتصاد في المنطقة الجنوبية"
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يهدف البحث إلى الكشف عن تأثير الممارسات الأخلاقية الجامعية (السلبية والإيجابية) في تحديد مستوى جودة الأداء الجامعي، اختار الباحثان عينة من كليات الإدارة والاقتصاد في جامعات المنطقة الجنوبية مجالا للدراسة، واعتمد فرضية مفادها (يعتمد مستوى الأداء الجامعي على تجنب الممارسات السلبية في السلوك الأخلاقي الجامعي والالتزام بالممارسات الإيجابية).  توصل البحث إلى مجموعة من الاستنتاجات من

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ATTRACTIONS ELEMENTS OF TELEVISION ADVERTISING AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO CONSUMER PREFERENCE: THE ATTRACTIONS ELEMENTS OF TELEVISION ADVERTISING AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO CONSUMER PREFERENCE
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The research aims to study the elements of attraction in television advertising and determine their relationship to consumer preferences, the extent to which the sample (250) watches television advertisements, and the motives for viewing. Males and females, and the statistical program spss was used to analyze the results using percentages, arithmetic mean, correlation coefficients ch2, Pearson’s coefficient and Alpha Cronbach for the stability of the test, and the research came to the conclusion that the percentage of watching television advertisements is good motivated by the identification of new goods and services in the market, as advertisements sometimes achieve consumer preferences, and the most prominent The forms that a

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Poetics of Transition in T. S. Eliot's "Ash-Wednesday"
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  1. S. Eliot is one of the important founders of the modernist movement in literature, a cutting-edge poet of the first order. After his 1927 conversion to Anglicanism, he began calling himself a conservative, royal, and a classicist.
  2. "Ash Wednesday" is the first long poem written by him after his conversion. It deals with the struggle that ensues when one who has lacked faith acquires it. It is richly but ambiguously allusive, and deals with the aspiration to move from spiritual barrenness to hope for human salvation.

    "Ash Wednesday" not only struggles with an approach to faith but with an approach to a language capable of expressing it. Eliot's style is different from that that predates his conve

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
استخدام المحاكاة للمفاضلة بين بعض الطرائق الحديثة لنموذج GM(1,1) لايجاد القيم المفقودة و تقدير المعلمات مع تطبيق عملي
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The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to conf

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A linguistic analysis of the speech act of advice in american English proverbs
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
الادارة البيئية المستدامة للمدينة: فن وسياسة مدينة السليمانية: منطقة كندة سورة
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
(دراسة تحليلية): ( A field study )
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The research aimed to identify the effects of the modern of technology on translating the media term from English language to Arabic. and try to identify the use of the impact of foreign media terminologies on the Arabic media term, and to know the effect of the translation process on Arabic media terminologies.

This research is considered an analytical study by using survey study for 111 items and the results for the study as following:

1.High percentage of the (use of foreign terms work to low the level of production) was (68.13%) and average 3.55

2.The percentage of (The multiplicity of translation of the foreign term into Arabic effects on the opinions and cognitive ideas of the Arab researcher and affects the

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
استخدام البرمجة الديناميكية في حل انموذج المعاينة الدورية الثابته لمشكلة الخزين مع تطبيق عملي في شركة الاقصى التجارية لاستيراد المولدات
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The purpose of this paper is use the Dynamic Programming to solve a deterministic periodic review model for inventory problem and then to find the optimal policies that the company must uses in the purchase or production  (in the practical application example the Al Aksa company purchase the generators from out side country).

 

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