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التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Traffic Simulation of Urban Street to Estimate Capacity
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This research aimed to develop a simulation traffic model for an urban street with heterogeneous traffic capable of analyzing different types of vehicles of static and dynamic characteristics based on trajectory analysis that demonstrated psychophysical driver behavior. The base developed model for urban traffic was performed based on the collected field data for the major urban street in Baghdad city. The parameter; CC1 minimum headway (represented the speed-dependent of the safety distance from stop line that the driver desired) justified in the range from (2.86sec) to (2.17 sec) indicated a good match to reflect the actual traffic behavior for urban traffic streets. A good indication of the convergence between simulat

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
On Shrunken Estimation of Generalized Exponential Distribution
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This paper deal with the estimation of the shape parameter (a) of Generalized Exponential (GE) distribution when the scale parameter (l) is known via preliminary test single stage shrinkage estimator (SSSE) when a prior knowledge (a0) a vailable about the shape parameter as initial value due past experiences as well as suitable region (R) for testing this prior knowledge.

The Expression for the Bias, Mean squared error [MSE] and Relative Efficiency [R.Eff(×)] for the proposed estimator are derived. Numerical results about beha

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series
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        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Multi-Sites Multi-Variables Forecasting Model for Hydrological Data using Genetic Algorithm Modeling
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A two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Multi-variables Multi -sites Model for Forecasting Hydrological Data Series
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A multivariate multisite hydrological data forecasting model was derived and checked using a case study. The philosophy is to use simultaneously the cross-variable correlations, cross-site correlations and the time lag correlations. The case study is of two variables, three sites, the variables are the monthly rainfall and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Dokan, and Darbandikhan.. The model form is similar to the first order auto regressive model, but in matrices form. A matrix for the different relative correlations mentioned above and another for their relative residuals were derived and used as the model parameters. A mathematical filter was used for both matrices to obtain the elements. The application of this model indicates i

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 24 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Accounting For Investments In Joint Projects Accounting to the International Accounting Standard: An applied Study at the General Company for food Stuff Trading
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   As a result of the entry of  multinationals companies in Iraq for investing in the joint projects through conducting agreements and contracts for work on important and strategic projects to get the necessary funds and various experiences which characterize the foreign participant sides that Iraq currently needs them and because of the non-applying the accounting processing stipulated in the unified accounting system in addition to the absence of a local accounting bases as well as the default of the participant contracts on indicating the accounting methods about those projects which are considered one of the bases that enables auditors in the public sector to depend on it, thus the research paper deals with studying an

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Al-manhaj Library
Multivariate Analysis - Second Edition
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This Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 15 2024
Journal Name
Al-manhaj Library
Multivariate Analysis (Second Edition)
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This Book is intended to be textbook studied for undergraduate course in multivariate analysis. This book is designed to be used in semester system. In order to achieve the goals of the book, it is divided into the following chapters (as done in the first edition 2019). Chapter One introduces matrix algebra. Chapter Two devotes to Linear Equation System Solution with quadratic forms, Characteristic roots & vectors. Chapter Three discusses Partitioned Matrices and how to get Inverse, Jacobi and Hessian matrices. Chapter Four deals with Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). Chapter Five concern with Joint, Marginal and Conditional Normal Distribution, independency and correlations. While the revised new chapters have been added (as the curr

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تقدير معلمتي التوزيع الاسي العام باستخدام اسلوب المحاكاة
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The main aim of this paper is to study how the different estimators of the two unknown parameters (shape and scale parameter) of a generalized exponential distribution behave for different sample sizes and for different parameter values. In particular, 

. Maximum Likelihood, Percentile and Ordinary Least Square estimators had been implemented for different sample sizes (small, medium, and large) and assumed several contrasts initial values for the two parameters. Two indicators of performance Mean Square Error and Mean Percentile Error were used and the comparisons were carried out between different methods of estimation  by using monte carlo simulation techniq

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