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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Effect of the Pulsed Laser Energy on the Properties of CdO: NiO Composite Thin Films for Solar Cell Applications
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     In this work, thin films of cadmium oxide: nickel oxide (CdO: NiO) were prepared by pulsed laser deposition at different pulse energies of Nd: YAG laser. The thin films' properties were determined by various techniques to study the effect of pulse laser energy on thin films' properties. X-ray diffraction measurements showed a mixture of both phases. The degree of crystallinity and the lattice constant increase with the laser energy increase, while the lattice strain decreases. FE-SEM images show that the substrates' entire surface is uniformly covered, without any cracks, with a well-connected structure consisting of small spherical particles ranging in size from 15 to 120 nm. Increasing the laser power causes to increase the pa

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
Impediments to the use of the Iraqi musical instruments in the orchestra: احسان شاكر محسن زلزلة
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The diversity of ideas and freedom of expression among the authors, who are looking for what's new serve the goals of musical expression and aesthetic, which calls for the use of traditional instruments with the formation of the great instrumental music and well-known orchestra, is a major challenge from several quarters, the failure of some of those musical instruments or limited potential or method performed by costly sometimes prevents the use of a permanent in this great configuration, had to be the emergence of some of the problems faced by the author and musician on the one hand and the receiver on the other hand, which must be looking for the perfect, some of these musical instrument are used systematically follows the work of the

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 24 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Relationship Between Solar Indices and Electron Density of D- Region over Baghdad City During the Ascending and the Descending Phases of Solar Cycle 23
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This research dedicated to make an investigation for the variation of electron density concentration of D- region(NmD), at a characteristic height of 81 km throughout solar cycle 23, with solar activity(represented by sunspot number indices: international sunspot number(Ri), Northern hemisphere sunspot number(Rn) and Southern hemisphere sunspot number(Rs), as well as, the correlation between these indices for Baghdad city(lat.: 33.3o N, long.: 44.4o E) at local noon time during the ascending and the descending phases of solar cycle 23. A very strong directly relationship were found between Ri, Rn and Rs with NmD, as well as, the correlation coefficient between these parameters have been calculated and it has been found it is equal, i.e.,

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Impact of D.B.M. Best practices on Community Rehabilitation Projects
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
((The impact of strategic Orientation in the performance of banks private sector Iraqi / compared to the entrance.))
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             bjective researcher through this research to Put a theoretical framework to strategic orientation the center on the market in the business and the diagnosis and interpretation of the nature of the link between relationships and influencing strategic orientation dimensions Almtmthelh organizations (Entrepreneurial Orientation, market Orientation, Interaction Orientation) and  the performance of the Iraqi Private Banks The research community and the  level of dimensional and through the use of scale (Balanced Scorecard) Bmnzawradtha the four, the test of this research in the Iraqi banking sector (Gulf Commercial Bank

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 10 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Composition of design according to norm renovation in the interior design space
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The interior spaces represent a true reflection of the concepts and values ​​of humanity and requirements; were interested in current research ongoing changes that have occurred in those human values ​​and requirements over time, even pat each time warp its values ​​and its own requirements. Those changes, which receive Bdilalha the spaces linked by a renewal which guarantees the interior design of the spaces of sustainability and bio-coordinated. Launched search from an initial perception that those associated with the changes of the spaces through time that have not been subject to examination and supervision, they will constitute a continuing threat of losing the ties with the past under the pretext of modernization and mo

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Design requirements according to the formal integration in the design of interior spaces
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The formal integration of the interior spaces in general and the commercial spaces of the watch shops in the large commercial centers in particular is the goal that the designers aim to reach in order for the interior space to become successful in terms of the design idea and its characteristics. Implementation mechanism. One of the reasons for achieving formal integration in the interior spaces of watch shops is the requirements of the design that must be available in these spaces to reach a state of formal integration between the interior and the exterior so that the space becomes fully integrated in all respects. Because of the aforementioned reasons for dealing with the research, through four chapters: The first chapter included the

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
The effectiveness of the constructivist learning model in acquiring the Institute of Fine Arts' students of artistic analysis skills: اخلاص عبد القادر طاهر
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The constructivist learning model is one of the models of constructivist theory in learning, as it generally emphasizes the active role of the learner during learning, in addition to that the intellectual and actual participation in the various activities to help students gain the skills of analyzing artistic works. The current research aims to know the effectiveness of the constructivist learning model in the acquisition of the skills of the Institute of Fine Arts for the skills of (technical work analysis). To achieve the goal, the researcher formulated the following hypothesis: There are no statistically significant differences between the average scores of the experimental group students in the skill test for analyzing artworks befor

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
AYĀT AL-HUJJAH FĪ SŪRAT AL-ANĀM RIWĀIAH WA DERĀIAH ( a model in three verses from Surat Al-An’am 108-110)
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The current research discusses the jurisprudence of the argumentative meaning in the Qur’an, and it is one of the general methods of responses in the Qur’an, as well as the argumentative approach to the recitations of the readers and directing their meanings. I have chosen a model for three verses from Surat Al-An’am, in which there are seven frequent recitations and seven odd ones, on a topic related to theology and faith; It forms the centerpiece of the argument verses in Surat Al-An'am; It contains the jurisprudence of dealing with infidels and dissenters, turning away and forbidding insulting what they claim besides God in the event of corruption, and God Almighty’s decree and wisdom in the occurrence of unbeli

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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