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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Study on the Effect of Using Metallic Brushes on the Charging and Discharging Time of Thermal Energy Storage Unit
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Phase change materials are known to be good in use in latent heat thermal energy storage (LHTES) systems, but one of their drawbacks is the slow melting and solidification processes. So that, in this work, enhancing heat transfer of phase change material is studied experimentally for in charging and discharging processes by the addition of high thermal conductive material such as copper in the form of brushes, which were added in both PCM and air sides. The additions of brushes have been carried out with different void fractions (97%, 94% and 90%) and the effect of four different air velocities was tested. The results indicate that the minimum brush void fraction gave the maximum heat transfer in PCM and reduced the time

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 11 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
An Investigation Study of Tool Geometry in Single Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) and their effect on Residual Stresses Using ANOVA Model
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Incremental forming is a flexible sheet metal forming process which is performed by utilizing simple tools to locally deform a sheet of metal along a predefined tool path without using of dies. This work presents the single point incremental forming process for producing pyramid geometry and studies the effect of tool geometry, tool diameter, and spindle speed on the residual stresses. The residual stresses were measured by ORIONRKS 6000 test measuring instrument. This instrument was used with four angles of (0º,15º,30º, and 45º) and the average value of residual stresses was determined, the value of the residual stress in the original blanks was (10.626 MPa). The X-ray diffraction technology was used to measure the residual stresses

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
The Journal Of Legal And Social Sciences
Limitations on the authority of a judge in case-law ( France as a model )
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When exercising their authority in the jurisprudence, judges are subject to a set of restrictions that they must adhere to, as they do not want their jurisprudence to be accepted and welcomed by law practitioners in general, and legal scholars in particular, and in contrast to it, the arrows of criticism and defamation will extend to that jurisprudence, and then they will have to reverse them . Perhaps the most important of those restrictions imposed on judges is their observance of justice between the parties to the lawsuit through their lack of bias for one of the parties at the expense of the other, in addition to their observance of public order and public morals, as well as their observance of the legal texts that they work under its u

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2018
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Narrative narration in the poetry of Mohammed Abdul Muttalib   (Top poem as a model)
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Poets of the age since ancient times to recount the events of their adventures in a fun story style in which the elements of the story of personalities, time and place, and we do not mean this modern art technique (poetic story) as it is now, but was aimed at the pleasures of the other receiving because it is the rule of the quality of literary output, Other times the narrative of events inspired by his broad imagination and this mixing indicates the story's involvement with Arabic poetry to be (poetic story) and this depends entirely on addressing the poet to the recipient, and requires in this narrative to be familiar with the elements of influence and suspense in the other or turned into a monotonous and dull narrative Influential, un

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Simulation of myths in industrial product design "the seven eyes amulet as a model"
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The research is to identify the legend of the seven eyes amulet of Babylonian origin and the representations it carried of the link between the Babylonian past and the Islamic present presented in the design works of the promoted products, preserving its impact in the souls as a way to avoid the act of envy, and from this was the research problem that I want to get answers to, which That is (How was the legend of the seven-eyes amulet represented in the design of industrial products?), making its goal to identify how that legend was represented within the design work of marketed industrial products, and in order to reach the answer, the research presented many concepts starting with the legend in its various forms in industrial products.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing current and future direction of non-oil primary balance: Case Study of Iraq Using Exponential Smoothing model
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In recent years, non-oil primary balance indicator has been given considerable financial important in rentier state. It highly depends on this indicator to afford a clear and proper picture of public finance situation in term of appropriate and sustainability in these countries, due to it excludes the effect of oil- rental from compound of financial accounts which provide sufficient information to economic policy makers of how economy is able to create potential added value and then changes by eliminating one sided shades of economy. In Iraq, since, 2004, the deficit in value of this indicator has increased, due to almost complete dependence on the revenues of the oil to finance the budget and the obvious decline of the non-oil s

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 06 2014
Journal Name
دراسات دولية
العوامل الداخلية والخارجية للتغيير السياسي في المنطقة العربية
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لقد شهدت المنطقة العربية تحولات وتغييرات شاملة انطوت على عنصري المفاجأة من حيث التوقيت، وانعكاساتها الاقليمية والدولية، إذ اجتاحت الدول العربية ثورات شعبية احدثت جملة من التغيرات والتبدلات الجيوسياسية، اذ استطاع بعضها اقتلاع انظمة حاكمة كان من غير المتصور ان تتزحزح من مكانها مع تسلحها بكل ادوات العصر من القمع والديكتاتورية الاستبداد، لذا كان للطابع الشعبي السلمي والنجاح الذي تحقق للشعوب العربية كما في م

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 First International Conference Of Computer And Applied Sciences (cas)
A Comparison for Some of the estimation methods of the Parallel Stress-Strength model In the case of Inverse Rayleigh Distribution
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
From Structure to the Signal (Text and Discourse in the Semiotic Analysis)
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Care and attention to the structure in the sixties of the last century replaced the mark, and if the structure of Ms. pampered in research and studies, it has become the mark is also a spoiled lady .. But the relationship between the structure and the mark was not a break and break, but the relationship of integration, His themes are structural analysis, and these are intellectual themes that can not be surpassed in contemporary research, especially since semiotics have emerged from the linguistic inflection.

We have tried to distinguish between text and speech, which is a daunting task, as it seems that whenever the difference between them is clear and clear, we come back to wonder whether the text is the same discourse, and is

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compared to the poverty indicators in Iraq in 2007
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     There is poverty because of the difference in capacity and material resources, Previously poverty known on the basis of disparity between income and inadequate income. It realize later that fare wore effects of poverty is the erosion of human capital. The human poverty is the loss of food, education, health care and shelter.

     In order to provide a database that target the poor  , it have been propped a document on the features of poverty and the whereabouts of the poor and the rate of disparity between provinces.

    Here the goal of the research is the identify the factors affecti

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