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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Artificial Neural Network to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties in Nasiriya Oil Field
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   The time spent in drilling ahead is usually a significant portion of total well cost. Drilling is an expensive operation including the cost of equipment and material used during the penetration of rock plus crew efforts in order to finish the well without serious problems. Knowing the rate of penetration should help in speculation of the cost and lead to optimize drilling outgoings. Ten wells in the Nasiriya oil field have been selected based on the availability of the data. Dynamic elastic properties of Mishrif formation in the selected wells were determined by using Interactive Petrophysics (IP V3.5) software based on the las files and log record provided. The average rate of penetration and average dynamic elastic propert

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modified Grid Clustering Technique to Predict Heat Transfer Coefficient in a Duct of Arbitrary Cross Section Area
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A simple straightforward mathematical method has been developed to cluster grid nodes on a boundary segment of an arbitrary geometry that can be fitted by a relevant polynomial. The method of solution is accomplished in two steps. At the first step, the length of the boundary segment is evaluated by using the mean value theorem, then grids are clustered as desired, using relevant linear clustering functions. At the second step, as the coordinates cell nodes have been computed and the incremental distance between each two nodes has been evaluated, the original coordinate of each node is then computed utilizing the same fitted polynomial with the mean value theorem but reversibly.

The method is utilized to predict

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Development Accounting Rule disclosure by accounting policies in the light of Islamic and electronic banking Activities (Proposal pattern): Proposal pattern
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the bank sect for any country  is very important  because  its represent a major  nerve   to feed a verity economic and finance activities .development any state measure by development  banking  sets and its represent  important  factor to investors attract . and because  important  of this subject ,teen accounting rule is a specialized for it .its related by  Disclosures in the Financial Statements Of Banks and The Similar Institutions, its accredit  by auditing and accounting standard  consul in republic of Iraq.in date 10/28/1998.                      &

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Clinical and pathological staging of primary carcinoma of the larynx
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Background: Staging of primary carcinoma of the larynx play an important role in surgical management of the disease .This staging depends on the clinical finding and radiological examination , supported by pathological assessment of the excised tumor
Objectives: To evaluate the accuracy of clinical and radiological staging Patients’ and methods: Forty-two patients with laryngeal carcinoma were admitted to the ENT Department during the period from June 2009 through October 2010. Each patient was staged by clinical examination and computed tomography. Evaluation of the results compared to the final diagnosis of staging , based on the pathological staging of specimens of patients who underwent total l

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Investigation of Groundwater and The Impact of Over-Pumping in Al-Haydariyah Region, Iraq
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In this study; a three-dimensional model was created to simulate groundwater in Al-Haydariyah area of the governorate of Al-Najaf. A solid model was created to utilize the cross sections of 25 boreholes in the research region, and it was made out of two layers: sand and clay. The steady-state calibration was employed in six observation wells to calibrate the model and establish the hydraulic conductivity, which was 17.49 m/d for sand and 1.042 m/d for clay, with a recharge rate of 0.00007 m/day. The wells in the research region were reallocated with a distance of 1500 m between each well, resulting in 140 wells evenly distributed throughout the study area and with a discharge of 5 l/s, and the scenarios were run for 1000

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The functional diversity of the directorial vision in the political theater cinema as a model
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It is very necessary for the political theater to be within the space of every theatrical performance, so that the theater carries the diverse and enlightened values and cultures of this world. political theatre. In the first chapter, the researcher dealt with (the methodological framework), which includes the research problem identified by the researcher with the following question (the functional diversity of the directorial vision in the political theater)
Importance, purpose, limits and seal by defining terminology.
In the second chapter, the researcher dealt with the theoretical framework on two topics, the first (transformations of directorial vision in theatrical performance) and the second topic (aesthetic experiences i

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Ordinary Method and Robust Method to estimate the Parameters of the Univariate Mixed Model with Low Order
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A condense study was done to compare between the ordinary estimators. In particular the maximum likelihood estimator and the robust estimator, to estimate the parameters of the mixed model of order one, namely ARMA(1,1) model.

Simulation study was done for a varieties the model.  using: small, moderate and large sample sizes, were some new results were obtained. MAPE was used as a statistical criterion for comparison.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the method of partial least squares and the algorithm of singular values decomposion to estimate the parameters of the logistic regression model in the case of the problem of linear multiplicity by using the simulation
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The logistic regression model is an important statistical model showing the relationship between the binary variable and the explanatory variables.                                                        The large number of explanations that are usually used to illustrate the response led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity between the explanatory variables that make estimating the parameters of the model not accurate.    

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Pointwise Estimates for Finding the Error of Best Approximation by Spline, Positive Algebraic Polynomials and Copositive
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     The first step in this research is to find some of the necessary estimations in approximation by using certain algebraic polynomials, as well as we use certain specific points in approximation. There are many estimations that help to find the best approximation using algebraic polynomials and geometric polynomials. Throughout this research, we deal with some of these estimations to estimate the best approximation error using algebraic polynomials where the basic estimations in approximation are discussed and proven using algebraic polynomials that are discussed and proven using algebraic polynomials that are specified by the following points and  if   as well as if   .

  For the second step of the work, the estimatio

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Suggested Model For Using Customer's Data Management Information System/ A Case Study In Al-Rasheed Bank/General Agent Office/ Nothren Reigon
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This study aim to  identify the concept of  web based information systems since its one of the important topics that is  usually omitted by our organizations, in addition to,  designing a web based information system in order to manage the customers data of Al- Rasheed bank, as a unified information system that is specialized to the banking deals of the customers with the bank, and providing a suggested model to apply the virtual private network as a tool that is to protect the transmitted data through the web based information system.

This study is considered important because it deals with one of the vital topics nowadays, namely: how to make it possible to use a distributed informat

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