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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Determination of Best Location for Elevated Tank in Branched Network
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The research focuses on determination of best location of high elevated tank using the required head of pump as a measure for this purpose. Five types of network were used to find the effect of the variation in the discharge and the node elevation on the best location. The most weakness point was determined for each network. Preliminary tank locations were chosen for test along the primary pipe with same interval distance. For each location, the water elevation in tank and pump head was calculated at each hour depending on the pump head that required to achieve the minimum pressure at the most weakness point. Then, the sum of pump heads through the day was determined. The results proved that there is a most economical lo

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Publication Date
Sat May 03 2025
Journal Name
Tikrit Journal Of Administrative And Economic sciences
Determination of competency levels and auditor evaluation procedures to the international standard (ISO19011: 2018) A case study at the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities/Audit Directorate
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The current research seeks to achieve several objectives, including knowing the extent of the audit directorate of the Ministry of Construction, Housing and General Municipalities of the International Standard (ISO19011:2018) regarding determining the efficiency and evaluation of auditors and diagnosing the gap between requirements and application and knowing the reasons for not applying some of the items in the standard, starting from the problem, The field raised the following question (Does the audit directorate determine the efficiency and evaluation of auditors according to the standard ISO19011:2018?), and the importance of research lies in determining the return that can be achieved by the directorate through its application of stand

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Potential Role of Soil Bacteria as an Indicator of Heavy Metal Pollution in Southern, Iraq
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       The present study was performed to spotlight the potential role of soil bacteria in the Al-Rumaila oil field as a bioindicator of heavy metals pollution. For this purpose, nine soil samples were collected from different sites, with 20cm depth, to assess the pollution status depending on the total and available concentrations of heavy metals.  The result indicates pollution of the studied soils with the following metals: Cd, Cu, Fe, Zn, and Pb. The mean of total concentration for all studied metals was higher than the allowed maximum limit based on the international limit:(3.394, 3.994, 39.993, 8844.979,150.372, and 103.347 µg/g), respectively. While measuring the total Metal concentration is important in determining the de

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Publication Date
Wed May 18 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Application of Experimentation in the Iraqi theatre shows "Othello in the Kitchen" As a model: عادل كريم سالم
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The researcher tackles the most outstanding conditions of experimentation, the importance of the study lies in being helpful to the workers in the field of theatre in general and directors in particular which the conditions of experimentation that should be taken.The study aims at knowing the experimental basis which the director (Sami Abdulhamid) followed in the realization of this.The researcher tackles in the First inquiry the concept of experimentation and the second tackles the conditions of experimentation.In the methodology of study the researcher analyzed the show of the "Othello in the Kitchen" and comes up to the following: 1. the dhows has cone with the nature of the previous shows experienced the methods that were not familia

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 11 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Dynamics And Control
The modified predator–prey model response to the effects of global warming, wind flow, fear, and hunting cooperation
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Global warming has a serious impact on the survival of organisms. Very few studies have considered the effect of global warming as a mathematical model. The effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey and predators has not been studied before. In this article, an ecological model describing the relationship between prey and predator and the effect of global warming on the carrying capacity of prey was studied. Moreover, the wind speed was considered an influencing factor in the predation process after developing the function that describes it. From a biological perspective, the nonnegativity and uniform bounded of all solutions for the model are proven. The existence of equilibria for the model and its local stability is inves

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraq Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
COMPARISON BETEEEN THE CONSUMPTION OF RED MEAT AND WHITE MEAT FOR ASAMPLE OF CITIZENS OF THE CITY OF BAGHDAD/ AN EXPLORATORY STUDY
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Three hundred Iraqi people participated in demographic and attitudes study about red and white meat consumption. The mean age of the participants was 50 SD ± 11 years (mean 30-72); 51% were females and 49% males, mostly in forties who lived ≥ 5 years in Baghdad. The results showed that 80% of individuals prefer red meat. A 90% of people prefer fresh meat compared to frozen and processed meat. A 60% of people buy meat from popular markets. Nearly 87% of respondents believe the improving of livestock sector is essential and 80% of people confirmed there are obstacles to development this sector. An 80% of participates thought the reasons of the high prices of local fresh meat is the lack of planning and support to livestock sector. A survey

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
THE USE of DIRECT SOLAR ENERGY in ABSORPTION REFREGERATION EMPLOYING NH3 – H2O SYSTEM
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This work was conducted to study the coefficient of performance for solar absorption refrigeration by using direct solar energy using aqueous ammonia 0.45 mass fraction (ammonia – water).The experiments were carried out in solar absorption system .The system consisted of solar collector generator (0.25 m × 0.25 m × 0.04m) and condenser cooled by a water bath followed by liquid receiver and evaporator. The results showed that the maximum generator temperature was (92° - 97°) during June 2009, and the minimum evaporator temperature was (5°C - 10°C) for aqua ammonia system.. It was, also, found that the coefficient of performance, cooling ratio and amount of cooling obtainable increased with increasing maximum generator temperature

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 30 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
CORROSION of BOILER TUBES in SOUTH BAGHDAD ELECTRIC STATION
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The corrosion of low carbon steel boiler tubes in demi water had been investigated. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the change produced in corrosion behavior of the carbon steel as a result of the specific presence of chloride and copper ions in the water under different temperatures. For low carbon steel experiments, the temperature was taken in three levels (125, 175, and 215°C) under about 27 bar pressure and 1500 rpm in autoclave. Using weight loss technique, the corrosion rate ranges from (85 to 789 gmd) for low carbon steel boiler tubes.

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Evaluating Implementation of Electric Power Generation Projects in Iraq
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Abstract<p>Iraq has witnessed development in many fields and the electricity production sector is one of the most important of these fields. This is attributed to the State’s philosophy in supporting this sector through the development of economic development projects to serve and raise the level of the Iraqi individual. Electricity production in Iraq is affected by many variables such as load growth, economic and financial conditions, planning, etc. All these led to a disparity in the production of electric power to cover the demand for energy. The paper deals with the electricity generation sector overview in Iraq, Analysis of the effects of variables on the implementation of power generatio</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Administration Diagnosis of quality of work life dimensions: A survey of a sample of employees of the Northern Gas Filling Company in Nynawa
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The primary objective of the present  research is to diagnose the most mportant imensions of quality of work life in a sample of individuals working in the Northern Gas Filling Company in Nynawa. The study sample consisted of 140 employees of the Northern Region Filling Company in even ,Through a questionnaire prepared for this purpose. The study concluded that there are five main factors that are considered to be measure of the quality of working life and are based on their importance: Empowerment, organizational health, internal work environment, motivation, development and training of workers. The study recommended that the organization should payattentio

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