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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
A computer experiment to study the charging process of dust grains in negative ion plasma
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This work presents a computer studying to simulate the charging process of a dust grain immersed in plasma with negative ions. The study based on the discrete charging model. The model was developed to take into account the effect of negative ions on charging process of dust grain.
The model was translated to a numerical calculation by using computer programs. The program of model has been written with FORTRAN programming language to calculate the charging process for a dust particle in plasma with negative ion, the time distribution of a dust charge, number charge equilibrium and charging time for different value of ηe (ratio of number density of electron to number density of positive ion).

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 28 2024
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal
The Relationship between Willingness to Communicate in English and Psychological Adjustment of Iraqi EFL Learners
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The current research aims to examine the willingness to communicate and psychological adjustment of Iraqi EFL undergraduate students. To achieve the main aim, a sample of 100 male and female Iraqis’ undergraduate students studying English as a foreign language was chosen randomly from two different public colleges in Baghdad city for the academic year 2023-2024. Two scales have five Likert alternatives of 17 and 16 items developed by McCroskey & Richmond (1990) and Wais (2010), respectively were administered to the research sample to collect the needed data. The results revealed that Iraqi EFL undergraduate students have a willingness to communicate in the English language. Iraqi EFL undergraduate students have a good level of

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Evaluation of Illustrations Images in the Content of the Computer Book for the Second Intermediate Grade from the Point of View of the Teachers of the Subject
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The research aims at evaluating the illustrations images and determining the availability of good image standards in the illustrations images of the content of the second intermediate stage computer's book for the academic year (2019-2020) as seen by computer teachers. The sample was randomly selected, (30) teachers who are actually teaching the subject in schools within the geographical area of the province of Baghdad (Karkh III). To achieve this goal, ten standards were identified: scientific accuracy, suitability for the level of students, image clarity, image freshness, quality of coloring, suitability of its location of the subject, Matching their content glimpsed, The subject matter is appropriate in terms of area, matching its tit

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Two – Dimensional Mathematical Model to Study Erosion Problem of Tigris River Banks at Nu’maniyah
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The high and low water levels in Tigris River threaten the banks of the river. The study area is located on the main stream of Tigris River at Nu’maniyah City and the length of the considered reach is 5.4 km, especially the region from 400 m upstream Nu’maniyah Bridge and downstream of the bridge up to 1250 mwhich increased the risk ofthe problemthat itheading towardsthe streetand causingdanger tonearbyareas.

The aim of this research is to identify the reason of slope collapse and find proper treatments for erosion problem in the river banks with the least cost. The modeling approach consisted of several steps, the first of which  is by using “mini” JET (Jet Erosion Test) d

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 25 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Current Engineering And Technology
Model-Based Design of Piezoelectric Patches used to Repair Damaged Beams under Static Load
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Static loads exposing to mechanical components can cause cracks, which are lead to form stress concentration regions causing the failure of structure. Generally, from 80% to 90% of structure failure is due to initiation of the cracks. Therefore, it is necessary to repair the crack and reduce its effect on the structure where the effect of the crack is modelled as an additional flexibility to the structure. In the last few years, piezoelectric materials have been considered as one of the most favourable repairing techniques. The piezoelectric material converts the applied voltage on it to a bending moment to counter the bending moment caused by the external load on the beam at the crack location. In this study, the design of the piez

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Frustrations of sectarian coexistence and mechanisms to activate peaceful coexistence: Iraq as a model
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Abstract The study aimed at demonstrating the reality of sectarian coexistence in Iraq, which was characterized by the tolerance and coercion caused by the successive government policies to govern Iraq and to this day. The study was based on the hypothesis that coexistence between Islamic sects in Iraq can be achieved as long as there are strong bonds linking its components, and these bonds can produce coexistence between the sects based on peace. The study concluded that the hypothesis is correct, in addition to drawing a set of observations aimed at identifying weaknesses for advancing them through the adoption of mechanisms that address these weaknesses to yield towards a genuine peaceful coexistence among Islamic sects in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 28 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Mathematics And System Science
Simulating Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm to Estimate Likelihood Function of ARMA(1, 1) Model
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of the performance of the stock market in light of inflation : empirical research in the Iraqi Stock Exchange
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Abstract:

                The aim of this research to try to determine the type of expected relationship between inflation as the explanatory variable and market performance as a dependent variable, for that used data issued and published by the Central Bank of Iraq and the Iraqi Stock Exchange for a sample consisting of (159) observations using the intentional or intentional sampling method for the period extending between the months (January 2010 to March 2023), in the light of each of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Iraqi Stock Exchange Index, the number of traded shares and the number of market capital shares to ex

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Bank credit and the most important ratios related to the granting: An analytical study of the company advanced Petrokimot Saudi Arabia
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  Bank credit is extremely important, as the generated revenues by a main focus of any bank earnings no matter how many and varied sources of revenue other, and without losing the bank and the main role function as an intermediary in financial economics . But at the faltering customers in payment of loans .   Therefore , uses a method of financial analysis using ratios as one of the important tools to measure the clients ability to pay , in spite of the need for the Bank analyzed the trend in this regard is focused on three main areas ( liquidity, profitability, and borrowing ) and can be to add another field is the possibility to cover fixed charges of the profits generated.   Finally I would like to emphas

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