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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 25 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Current Engineering And Technology
Model-Based Design of Piezoelectric Patches used to Repair Damaged Beams under Static Load
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Static loads exposing to mechanical components can cause cracks, which are lead to form stress concentration regions causing the failure of structure. Generally, from 80% to 90% of structure failure is due to initiation of the cracks. Therefore, it is necessary to repair the crack and reduce its effect on the structure where the effect of the crack is modelled as an additional flexibility to the structure. In the last few years, piezoelectric materials have been considered as one of the most favourable repairing techniques. The piezoelectric material converts the applied voltage on it to a bending moment to counter the bending moment caused by the external load on the beam at the crack location. In this study, the design of the piez

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Frustrations of sectarian coexistence and mechanisms to activate peaceful coexistence: Iraq as a model
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Abstract The study aimed at demonstrating the reality of sectarian coexistence in Iraq, which was characterized by the tolerance and coercion caused by the successive government policies to govern Iraq and to this day. The study was based on the hypothesis that coexistence between Islamic sects in Iraq can be achieved as long as there are strong bonds linking its components, and these bonds can produce coexistence between the sects based on peace. The study concluded that the hypothesis is correct, in addition to drawing a set of observations aimed at identifying weaknesses for advancing them through the adoption of mechanisms that address these weaknesses to yield towards a genuine peaceful coexistence among Islamic sects in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 28 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Mathematics And System Science
Simulating Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm to Estimate Likelihood Function of ARMA(1, 1) Model
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 12 2022
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
The influence of fear on the dynamic of an eco-epidemiological system with predator subject to the weak Allee effect and harvesting
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In this paper, an eco-epidemiological prey-predator system when the predator is subjected to the weak Allee effect, and harvesting was proposed and studied. The set of ordinary differential equations that simulate the system’s dynamic is constructed. The impact of fear and Allee’s effect on the system's dynamic behavior is one of our main objectives. The properties of the solution of the system were studied. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and their local, as well as global stabilities, were investigated. The possibility of the occurrence of local bifurcation was studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and understood the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of t

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 20 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Aeronautical Materials
Motor Response Speed And Its Relationship To The Performance Accuracy Of A Skills Of Passing From The Top And Smash Serve In Volleyball
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The game of volleyball requires the formation of new motor responses, which in turn requires special physical characteristics in the performance of that skill, and the correct and accurate performance during the performance of the skills of passing from the top and smash serve in volleyball cannot be developed or improved without a good level of accuracy and what is required to perform the movements in terms of responses to the defense and attack movements. Therefore, the researchers decided to identify the type of relationship between the motor response speed with the performance accuracy of the skills of passing from the top and the smash serve in volleyball. The research aims to: 1. Identifying the motor response speed of fourth-stage s

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Calculating the variations of sunrise, sunset and day length times for Baghdad city.With comparison to different regions of the world in year 2019
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     The sunrise, sunset, and day length times for Baghdad (Latitude =33.34º N, Longitude =44.43º E) were calculated with high accuracy on a daily basis during 2019. The results showed that the earliest time of sunrise in Baghdad was at 4h: 53m from 5 Jun. to 20 Jun while the latest was at 7h: 07m from 5 Jan. to 11 Jan. The earliest time of sunset in Baghdad was at16 h: 55m from 30 Nov. to 10 Dec. whereas the latest was at 19h: 16m from 25 Jun. to 5 Jul. The minimum period of day length in Baghdad was 9h: 57m) in 17 Dec. whereas the maximum period was 14h: 22m) in 20 Jun. Day length was calculated and compared among regions of different latitudes(0, 15, 30, 45 and 60 north).

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Studies In Systems, Decision And Control
The Effect of Using an Accounting Information System Based on Artificial Intelligence in Detecting Earnings Management to Enhance the Sustainability of Economic Units
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This research aims to clarify the importance of an accounting information system that uses artificial intelligence to detect earnings manipulation. The research problem stems from the widespread manipulation of earning in economic entities, especially at the local level, exacerbated by the high financial and administrative corruption rates in Iraq due to fraudulent accounting practices. Since earning manipulation involves intentional fraudulent acts, it is necessary to implement preventive measures to detect and deter such practices. The main hypothesis of the research assumes that an accounting information system based on artificial intelligence cannot effectively detect the manipulation of profits in Iraqi economic entities. The researche

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The ability of Pisum sativum plant to use tricalcium super phosphate (TSP) in the presence and absence of mycorrhizal fungi under field conditions
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Efficiency of Pisum sativum plants in using tricalcium super phosphate (TSP) in presence and absence of mycorrhizal fungi was evaluated in the field experiment in College of Science / Al-Mustansiriyah University. The experiment comprised of (6) treatments prepared from the interaction of two levels of inoculation [non-inoculation with fungus F0 and inoculation with Glomus mosseae fungus (F1)]. And three levels of phosphorus: 0,20,40 Kg P/ha. The experimental size was (1x2)m. Irrigation and hand-weeding were done when needed. The following plant measurements were recorded: (Shoots dry weight, concentration of N and P% in addition to percentage of root infection with mycorrhizal fungi at flowering 50% of plants. The re

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 25 1993
Journal Name
كلية العلوم. / جامعة بغداد
ISOLATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREMELY HALOPHILIC BACTERIA FROM SADDAM RIVER REGIONS AND THE RULE OF MEMBRANE PROTEINS IN THE RESISTANCE TO HIGH SALINITY
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This study included isolation and characterization of extremely halophilic bacteria from Al-Massab Al-Aam region in South of Iraq Fifty isolates were identified by using numerical taxonomy 40 strains belonged to the genus Halobacterium which inclucted Hb. halobium Hb. cutirubrum Hb. salinarium Hb. saccharovorum Hb. valismortis and Hb. volcanii. Ten strains belonged to the genus Halococcus which included Hc. morrhuae Hc. saccharolyticus. Growth curves were sensitive mutants determined for wild type and salt Generation time in logarthmic phase was measured and found to be (10.37 2hr 7 0.59) for Hb. salinarium / 18 (6.490 hr 0.24) for Hb. cutirubrum / 32, (6.700 hr + 0.488) for Hb. valismortis / 20, (11.243 hr + 0.96) for Hb. volcanii / 7. (7

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