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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Reliability through the Wiener Degradation Process Based on the Genetic Algorithm to Estimating Parameters
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      In this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process,  where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Power Enhancement of a Mini-Gas Turbine by Adding Ethanol to the Compressor Inlet Air
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An experimental study is conducted on the utilization of the inlet ethanol injection technique in order to evaluate its impact on the performance of a two-shaft T200D mini-gas turbine engine. The maximum degradation recorded in power output was 32.8% at the climate temperature of 45oC. Nevertheless, at that temperature, adding ethanol with Eth/LPG ratio of 20% by volume brought an enhancement in power output of 19.2% compared to normal LPG run. SFC of the dual-fuel engine ranked a level of 22% higher than that with pure LPG consumption. The overall efficiency suffered a maximum reduction of 14.4% with Eth/LPG fuel ratio of 20%, but when the loading was raised beyond 70% of the engine full load; the efficiency of dual-fuel engi

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Study the Impact Behavior of the Prosthetic Lower Limb Lamination Materials Due to Low Velocity Impactor
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This work involves three parts ,  first part  is manufacturing different types of laminated below knee prosthetic socket materials with different classical laminated materials used in Baghdad center for prosthetic and orthotic (4perlon layers+2carbon fiber layer+4 perlon layers) , two suggested laminated materials(3perlon layers+2carbon fiber layer+3 perlon layers) and (3perlon layers+1carbon fiber layer+3 perlon layers) ) in order to choose perfect laminated socket . The second part tests (Impact test) the laminated materials specimens used in socket manufacturing in order to get the impact properties for each socket materials groups using an experimental rig designed especially for this purpose. The interface pressure between

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Strategic Flexibility in Achieving Organization Effectiveness: Analytical Research in the Directorates of the Ministry of Education
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This research aims to know the role of strategic flexibility in achieving organizational effectiveness by studying the dimensions of strategic flexibility (capacity flexibility, resource flexibility, information flexibility, and coordination flexibility) on the dimensions of organization effectiveness (environmental adaptation, productivity and achieving goals) through an analytical study conducted in six directorates in the office of the Iraqi Ministry of Education.

The research problem was represented in the form of questions, the most prominent of which was "What is the role of strategic flexibility in achieving organization effectiveness?" The descriptive analytical approach was relied on in applying

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Physical Work Environment in The Flexibility of Industrial Operations
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he research specifies important subjects which contribute in improvement of productive performance in industrial companies through study and analysis of relationships and effect between dimensions of physical work environment and industrial operations flexibility in the leathers industries company. To reach these goals the information are collected is questionnaire prepared for this purpose as a tool to analyze the practical results and are recorded for a sample of 118 persons from employees. The research uses the statistical methods and analyzes the information by using SPSS system. The research reached to many conclusions; the important one is the weakness of the company to make in to account the physical envir

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The effectiveness of visual intelligence strategy in the collection of students in the Department of Art Education in the perspective material: أسامة حسن عبد علي الصفار
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Select the researcher discussed problem of asking the following : Do you use visual intelligence strategy effective in the collection of students in the Department of Art Education in the foreseeable material ? The research aims to " measure the effectiveness of the strategy in the collection of visual intelligence students in the Department of Art Education in the foreseeable material ". To verify the objective of this research was identify hypotheses zero to measure the level of achievement in the foreseeable material second grade students in the Department of Art Education - Faculty of Fine Arts . The population of the research students in the Department of Art Education / Faculty of Fine Arts at the University of Baghdad who are stud

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Holy Totem in Qur’an, a study in the light of sociolinguistics
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The sacred totem is one of the social phenomena that occupied the ideas of researchers, and took up a wide area of ​​their research, and it is one of those phenomena that emerged from one of the translations of the Tabu; Who took a psychological and anthropological analysis   Because it is one of the social practices, and the main focus of it is the human group and its source is religion. Therefore, this research came with demands, the first of which is to give a semantic concept of the Tommy sanctuary, and then the analytical aspect by standing on the sacred things in the Qur’anic text that God Almighty sanctified, and the third requirement is to examine what people have sanctified, as an analysis of the verses that have

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The role of media in the fight against terrorism
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كانت وسائل الاعلام- التقليدية والحديثة – وستبقى وسيلة مهمة لتدفق المعلومات والتعبير عن المشاعر ووصف الاحداث وتشكيل الرأي العام المحلي والدولي عن مختلف القضايا التي تهم الافراد والمجتمعات وفي مقدمتها قضايا العنف بمستوياته كافة ،والتطرف الديني والارهاب بكل مسمياته وستحاول هذه الدراسة ان تقدم اجابات عن اسئلة محددة تمثل الاطار النظري لدراسات مسحية ترصد النظريات التي ترسم الاطر النظرية الت

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"The role of quality costs in reducing the cost of industrial" products
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Abstract :-

The aim of the research is to explain the role of quality costs their  importance and their classification, and to clarify the most important tools that help to reduce costs.

In order to achieve the objective of the research and test hypotheses adopted the descriptive approach, as well as the adoption of the analytical approach in the study of applied data has been relied upon in providing data on the financial and production reports of the research sample company, the data were used to study and analyze financial and productivity reports . A number of conclusions have been reached the most important being the following

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The extent to which governmental secondary schools' managers in al-hial province have cognitive management requirements
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The current study aims to examine the level of cognitive management requirement among the governmental secondary schools' managers in al-hial province in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To do this, the author designed a questionnaire comprised (20) item which was applied on (250) managers included (113) manager hold bachelor degree and (137) manager hold master degree. To carry out this study, the researcher utilized the descriptive approach. The findings revealed that a high level of cognitive management requirements among secondary schools' managers as well as there is a significant difference at the (0.05) level regarding degree type, but there is no a significant difference according to gender variable.  

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