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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Holy Totem in Qur’an, a study in the light of sociolinguistics
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The sacred totem is one of the social phenomena that occupied the ideas of researchers, and took up a wide area of ​​their research, and it is one of those phenomena that emerged from one of the translations of the Tabu; Who took a psychological and anthropological analysis   Because it is one of the social practices, and the main focus of it is the human group and its source is religion. Therefore, this research came with demands, the first of which is to give a semantic concept of the Tommy sanctuary, and then the analytical aspect by standing on the sacred things in the Qur’anic text that God Almighty sanctified, and the third requirement is to examine what people have sanctified, as an analysis of the verses that have

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Power Enhancement of a Mini-Gas Turbine by Adding Ethanol to the Compressor Inlet Air
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An experimental study is conducted on the utilization of the inlet ethanol injection technique in order to evaluate its impact on the performance of a two-shaft T200D mini-gas turbine engine. The maximum degradation recorded in power output was 32.8% at the climate temperature of 45oC. Nevertheless, at that temperature, adding ethanol with Eth/LPG ratio of 20% by volume brought an enhancement in power output of 19.2% compared to normal LPG run. SFC of the dual-fuel engine ranked a level of 22% higher than that with pure LPG consumption. The overall efficiency suffered a maximum reduction of 14.4% with Eth/LPG fuel ratio of 20%, but when the loading was raised beyond 70% of the engine full load; the efficiency of dual-fuel engi

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Study the Impact Behavior of the Prosthetic Lower Limb Lamination Materials Due to Low Velocity Impactor
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This work involves three parts ,  first part  is manufacturing different types of laminated below knee prosthetic socket materials with different classical laminated materials used in Baghdad center for prosthetic and orthotic (4perlon layers+2carbon fiber layer+4 perlon layers) , two suggested laminated materials(3perlon layers+2carbon fiber layer+3 perlon layers) and (3perlon layers+1carbon fiber layer+3 perlon layers) ) in order to choose perfect laminated socket . The second part tests (Impact test) the laminated materials specimens used in socket manufacturing in order to get the impact properties for each socket materials groups using an experimental rig designed especially for this purpose. The interface pressure between

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study Analytical of The Effect Magnesium ion Concentration to Determination the Total Hardness And Comparison Spectrophotometry
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The determination hardness in water raised to rivers caused several problem in the validity of the water used depends on where determination ions concentration calcium and magnesium in salts carbonate and sulfate , this possibility of separation between of these ions and the resulting impact on concentration and determination the degree of hardness water and appreciation between the insolvent water quality . It study the effect of the impact of concentration magnesium ion in determination the quality of the water has turned out to be Mg concentration more than 60% of the total content of hardness is borderline in hardness effect the determination. Adopted in this research determination the ions in two method titration by EDTA solution and

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
African Journal Of Hospitality, Tourism And Leisure
Integrating the value chain and balanced scorecard to evaluate the overall performance of a tourism organization
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This study presented an endeavour to integrate the value chain activities with the Balanced Scorecard for a comprehensive evaluation of an organization’s strategic performance. It also demonstrated the connection and the integration of the activities of the value chain with the Balanced Scorecard. The financial measurement was linked with non-financial measurement by integrating these techniques to achieve an appropriate performance that supports all aspects of the organizational performance. Consequently, the research problem in this study emerged, which is due to the concentration of many organizations on the measurement of financial performance. Notably, the latter caused the decline of some organizations from the competitive market. T

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Scopus
Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation of Reliability through the Wiener Degradation Process Based on the Genetic Algorithm to Estimating Parameters
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      In this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process,  where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Forced State Fair Workers "Trades and professions" To work from the perspective of the Islamic economy
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The origin of occupations and trades producing goods and services necessary for the members of society
When people are designated to perform this task, in which case the state of change is included in the imposition of adequate labor rights, and may change from imposing sufficient to imposing the eye
Does the state have the right to compel "tradesmen and professions" to do their jobs?
Therefore, this research came to address the legitimacy of this from the perspective of the Islamic economy.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using The Maximum Likelihood And Bayesian Methods To Estimate The Time-Rate Function Of Earthquake Phenomenon
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In this research, we dealt with the study of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, which is one of the most important statistical issues that have a role in scientific development as it is related to accidents that occur in reality, which are modeled according to Poisson’s operations, because the occurrence of this accident is related to time, whether with the change of time or its stability. In our research, this clarifies the Non-Homogeneous hemispheric process and the use of one of these models of processes, which is an exponentiated - Weibull model that contains three parameters (α, β, σ) as a function to estimate the time rate of occurrence of earthquakes in Erbil Governorate, as the governorate is adjacent to two countr

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Approximation of Weighted Hölder Functions by Fourier-Jacobi Polynomials to the Singular Sturm-Liouville Operator
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      In this work, a weighted H lder function that approximates a Jacobi polynomial which solves the second order singular Sturm-Liouville equation is discussed. This is generally equivalent to the Jacobean translations and the moduli of smoothness. This paper aims to focus on improving methods of approximation and finding the upper and lower estimates for the degree of approximation in weighted H lder spaces by modifying the modulus of continuity and smoothness. Moreover, some properties for the moduli of smoothness with direct and inverse results are considered.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE IMAGE OF THE IRAQI IN THE MENTALITY OF THE ITALIANS
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Increased interest in the subject of the image because of its great and growing link to the life of the individual and society and its impact on the overall political, economic and cultural conditions. This interest is no longer confined to the images of people or institutions, but has become beyond that to the images of countries and peoples and the impact on bilateral relations between them,

However, we find that the image of the Iraqi abroad remained vague and has not been scientifically recognized and the most that we can generalize are the features of the image of Arabs and Muslims abroad; and assume that the image of the Iraqi applies to them as the Iraqi is in the end an Arab or Muslim.

Based on this, the research

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