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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2009
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Evaluation of Serum Interleukin-6 Levels in Correlation to the Severity of Acute Appendicitis
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Background: Acute appendicitis is a common surgical
problem that is associated with an acute-phase reaction.
Previous studies have shown that cytokines and acutephase proteins are activated and may serve as indicators for
appendicitis.
Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate of serum
levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) in correlation to the severity
to acute appendicitis.
Methods: This is a prospective study from December 2008
to March 2009 of patients who had appendectomy in
Department of Surgery, Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital -
Baghdad/Iraq. Serum for estimating levels of interleukin-6
(IL-6) was taken pre-operatively. Depending on the
macroscopic evidence during the operation and the
histopathol

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
ANATOMICAL STUDY OF SOME SPECIES BELONGING TO THE PAPAVERACEAE FAMILY IN NORTH OF IRAQ
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    The anatomical features of leaves and stems of seven species belonging to five genera of the Papaveraceae family were studied, including: Fumaria bracteosa Pomel, 1875; Glaucium grandiflorum Boissier & A. Huet,1856; Hypecoum pendulum Linnaeus, 1753; Papaver fugax Poiret,1804; Papaver macrostomum Boissier & A. Huet, 1867; Papaver rhoeas Linnaeus, 1753 and Roemeria refracta de Candolle,1821. The results showed that the anticlinal cell walls of the adaxial surface were more thickened in P. fugax, H. pendulum, P. macrostomum and R.refracta, while it was thin in P. rhoeas. The cur

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة الدراسات المستدامة
The Quality of University Environment According to the Viewpoint of Female Students: The College of Sciences for Woman an Example
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This research aims at identifying the level of quality of University environment according to the viewpoint of female students taking the College of Sciences for Woman an example, as represented in the college units as registration unit and the unit of students' affairs, the curricula, instructors, study halls, the college library, scientific labs, computer access, stationary and photocopying services, health care center, the unit of artistic, cultural and sportive activity, the canteen, the college gardens, college buildings and equipment and bathrooms. To achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher prepared a questionnaire to identify the viewpoints of female students concerning the extent of the availability of the standards o

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Study the effect of addition of Ar to N2 gas on the EEDF and the correspondent coefficients of electron transport
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Publication Date
Wed Nov 05 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Constructive Learning Model on Cognitive Achievement and Learning dribbling Skill in Soccer for Secondary School Students
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The research aimed at identifying the effect of using constructive learning model on academic achievement and learning soccer dribbling Skill in 2nd grade secondary school students. The researcher used the experimental method on (30) secondary school students; 10 selected for pilot study, 20 were divided into two groups. The experimental group followed constructive learning model while the controlling group followed the traditional method. The experimental program lasted for eight weeks with two teaching sessions per week for each group. The data was collected and treated using SPSS to conclude the positive effect of using constructive learning model on developing academic achievement and learning soccer dribbling Skill in 2nd grade seconda

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Energy band diagram of In2O3/ Si heterojunction
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Crystalline In2O3 Thin films have been prepared by flash evaporation. We have studied the crystal structure of as deposited at 303K and annealed at 523K using X-ray diffraction. The Hall Effect measurements confirmed that electrons were predominant charges in the conduction process (i.e n-type).It is found that the absorption coefficient of the prepared films decreases with increasing Ta. The d.c conductivity study showed that the conductivity increase with increasing Ta , whereas the activation energy decreases with increasing Ta. Also we study the barrier tunneling diode for In2O3/Si heterostructure grown by Flash evaporation technique. (capacitance-voltage C-V) spectroscopy measurements were performed at 303 K and at the annealing temper

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Self-control and its relation to the work pressure of educational counselors
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1- The degree of self-control of the educational counselors.

2- The level of work pressures that educational counselors are exposed to from their point of view.

3- The significance of the differences in the degree of self-control and work pressures according to the gender variable (male / female).

4- The relationship between self-control and work stress for the sample as a whole.

The current research was limited to educational counselors of both sexes in Anbar Governorate, Ramadi District, affiliated to the Anbar Education Directorate. The researcher adopted the steps of the relational descriptive approach to achieve the research objectives. The current research community consists of (100) m

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Geological Model of the Khabour Reservoir for Studying the Gas Condensate Blockage Effect on Gas Production, Akkas Gas Field, Western Iraq
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The Khabour reservoir, Ordovician, Lower Paleozoic, Akkas gas field which is considered one of the main sandstone reservoirs in the west of Iraq. Researchers face difficulties in recognizing sandstone reservoirs since they are virtually always tight and heterogeneous. This paper is associated with the geological modeling of a gas-bearing reservoir that containing condensate appears while production when bottom hole pressure declines below the dew point. By defining the lithology and evaluating the petrophysical parameters of this complicated reservoir, a geological model for the reservoir is being built by using CMG BUILDER software (GEM tool) to create a static model. The petrophysical properties of a reservoir were computed using

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Theoretical Calculation of the Electron Transport Parameters and Energy Distribution Function for CF3I with noble gases mixtures using Monte Carlo simulation program
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Purposes of Thinking in the Light of the Holy Qur’an
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This study aims to explain the purposes of thinking in light of the Holy Qur’an. The study adopted the deductive method by analyzing the meanings of the eighteen thinking verses mentioned in the Holy Qur’an That is by referring to the ancient and contemporary book interpretations and inferring the purposes of thinking from the context of those verses. The study concluded that there are seven main purposes, for thinking in the light of the Holy Qur’an, are understanding the universal regulations, contemplating the social codes, inferring, extracting maxims and meanings from the Qur’anic proverbs, analyzing the situation objectively, balancing between interests and evils, and freeing the mind from the authority of the paranormal. T

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