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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Laboratory Study Attempt of Flow and Energy Dissipation in Stepped Spillways
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A new laboratory study conducted on stepped spillways in order to investigate their efficiency of dissipating flow energy. All previous study on stepped spillway indicated that the flow energy dissipation decreased as increasing in discharge. Increasing in the step numbers and the spillway slope led to energy dissipation decrease. In this study, an experimental attempt to increase energy dissipation at variable discharges was performed on stepped spillway and that leads to decreasing the cost of initiating the stilling basin or may be ignoring it. Five spillways were constructed from concrete and tested to investigate and compare among them. Three were roughed by gravel with different size for each one, one of them was s

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Bacterial Causes Tonsillitis in Children, Study the Resistance to Antimicrobials and the Effect of Clove Extracts on Selected Isolated Bacteria.
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In this study Isolated Pathogenic bacteria which causes Tonsillitis in Children with ages between 3-17 years. They are admitted to Central Children Hospital (Al-Karch) and Ebn-Albalady Hospital (Al-Rusafa). 200 cases were collected which include 120 Male and 80 Female. The result of the recent study shows that the isolation percentage was 40% from Male and 35% from Female. In this study Fifty six isolated were Identified, 20 were ?-hemolytic Streptococcus which was Streptococcus pyogenes, formed (36%) from all isolated.6 Pathogenic bacteria were ?- hemolytic Streptococcus which was Streptococcus pneumoniae formed (11%). The number of Moraxella catarrhalis bacteria was 12 formed (21%), the number of Haemophilus influenzae was 1

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Digital addiction and its Relationship to social isolation among children in the autism Spectrum frome the viewpoint of their parents
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 This study titled “digital addiction and its relationship to social isolation among children in the autism spectrum from the point of view of their parents” in which the
researcher addressed an important topic which is knowledge of digital addiction in a
child with autism spectrum and its relationship to social isolation in them.
The study aimed to dhed the light on the digital addiction in a spectrum child Autism
from the point of view of their parents، by knowing the extent of addiction of children
in the autism spectrum، and identifying the relationship between electronic addiction and the social isolation of children in the autism spectrum.The study presented
several hypotheses،

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 06 2020
Journal Name
Asian Journal Of Civil Engineering
Integrated project delivery (IPD) method with BIM to improve the project performance: a case study in the Republic of Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al Kut Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship of demographic diversity to institutional effectiveness An analytical study of a sample of workers in public organizations in Iraq
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Diversity has become one of the required phenomena to be available within public organizations, in light of the changes taking place in the global and international environment and in various fields. Therefore, it was imperative to study the impact of this phenomenon in various institutions, especially public ones, in most developing countries, including Iraq. The current research aims to analyze the relationship between The demographic diversity and institutional effectiveness of a sample of workers in public institutions included (500) respondents. The questionnaires were distributed to them randomly. Diversity is considered an independent variable and institutional effectiveness a dependent variable. The researcher used interview tools a

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare to the conditional logistic regression models with fixed and mixed effects for longitudinal data
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Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of the probing questions in the collection of literature for students of the Kurdish language department in the College of Education / Ibn Rushd for the Humanities
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    The goal of this research to identify the effect of the probing questions in the collection of material literature with students of the Kurdish language department, to achieve the aim of the research, the researcher has chosen a sample from the students of third stage of the Kurdish language Department, Faculty of Education / Ibn Rushd as a field for the application of experiment.The number of sample  reached (71) students divided into two groups represented two divisions of the experimental groups under study to the style of questions sounding by (35) students, and represented the other division of the control group, which studied in the way normal and by (36) students, as rewarded r

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Effect of Recycled Heating and Cooling and The Effect of The Speciment Size on The Compressive Strength of Concrete Exposed To High Temperature
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     In the present work effect of recycled heating and cooling on the values of concrete compressive strength due to high temperature of 4000C was studied.

    The tests show that the percent of reduction in compressive strength of the samples which exposed to a temperature of 4000C for one cycle was 32.5%, while the reduction was 52.7% for the samples which were exposed to recycled heating and cooling of ten times .      

   Moreover a study of the effect of specimen sizes on the percentages of compressive strength reduction due to high temperature

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 28 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of a Psychological Counseling Program to reduce irrational ideas and the causal attribution of the coaches of the gymnasium sports care center
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The research aimed to prepare a psychological counseling program for the coaches of the Sports Care Center in the gymnasium, and to learn about the impact of the psychological counseling program in reducing irrational ideas and causal attribution of the coaches of the Sports Talent Care Center in the gymnasium, to assume that there are statistically significant differences between the results of the tribal and posttests of the research group Experimental in the scale of irrational ideas, and there are statistically significant differences between the results of the tribal and posttests of the experimental research group in the scale of the causal attribution scale, The experimental approach was adopted by designing one experimental

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measure the impact of the age structure of the population on the gross domestic product in Iraq
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   يهدف البحث إلى التعرف على The research aims to identify the effect ofاثر التركيب العمري للسكان على الناتج المحلي الإجمالي في العراق وتحديد الفئات العمرية من أطفال ومنتجين أي من هم في سن العمل والمسنين لأهمية ذلك لإغراض التخطيط الاقتصادي.إنeffectofeee age structure of the population on GDP in Iraq and determine the age groups of children and any of the producers wham are of working age and the elderly of the importance for the purposes of economic planning. نسبة الفئة العمرية Proportion of the age group (00- -4 4سنوات اقتربت من

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