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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Bayesian methods to estimate the failure probability for electronic systems in case the life time data are not available
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In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company.  The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system.  This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system.  We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator.  We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after  it checked by the

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
A Proposed Strategy to Develop Postgraduate Studies at King Khalid University to Support the Achievement of the Kingdom's 2030 Vision
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Abstract

The aim of this research is to formulate a proposed strategy for developing graduate studies at King Khalid University to support the achievement of the Kingdom's vision (2030). The research used the descriptive survey approach. The research community consisted of all graduate students at King Khalid University. The research was conducted on a random sample included (623) Male and female students, this research relied on the questionnaire as the main tool for collecting its data. The results revealed that the research sample believes that all the proposals included in this research are very important for the development of postgraduate studies at King Khalid University to support the achievement of the K

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Developmental Role of Social Work in Reducing Social Extremism:A Field Study in Baghdad University-College of Mass Communication as a Model: محمد حميد علوان
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This study deals with the role that social work profession plays in all its fields to reduce social extremismat home, or school or within society. The study aims to: examine the historical roots of social work in the Iraqi society, investigate the objectives of the developmental role of social work, review the theories of social extremism, its characteristics, and causes, and to analyze the developmental role of social work to limit social extremism. To meet the objectives of the study, a descriptive analytical approach has been adopted. It involves using the social sampling survey method, i.e., a questionnaire tool in the University of Baghdad community-College of Media. The sample was randomly selected to include (100) students from th

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Creative Formation in the Poetry of Thafer Bin Qasim Al-Haddad (529 A.H) (Creative Ingenuity as Model): خلود هاشم جوحي الوائلي
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Through research and research in the creative composition in the poetry of Zafer-Alhaddad it turned out to be superior in its systems, especially that he chose a linguistic and verbal texture accompanied by a cultural dictionary full of creativity and beauty helped this culture arrangement reflects the poetically wonderful and beautiful custom led to the harmony of colors and bodies painted by the poet brush the creative artist evaluates the metaphorical and metaphorical relations that would explain the poets idea, most of which were inspired by the wonderful spirit of nature, its beautiful landscapes and bright colors, especially that we do not forget the beautiful colors and the aesthetic touch that created a fascinating musical intera

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Reflection of self competency of the managers in their behavior
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Abstract

      This research aims to measure the effect of Self competency of the Managers in their behavior from the view point of the working individual in the organization since the behavior of managers is considered to be one of the essential variables in the organization which can affect the performance and the commitment of the working individual. the questioners was used to gather the data and the Iraqi Rail Road co. was the field of the study . and a random sample of (36) individual of the subordinates of the managers society of the study and used the (SPSS) statistical program was used in the analysis of the data of the research . the findings refer to the existence of a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Concentration of lead and the proportion of sedimentary organic matter , clay minerals , non-clay minerals and soil gradation , City of Nasiriyah , Southern Iraq
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The present research included sampling and analysis of 41 soil samples , the samples cover various areas of Nasiriyah city (industrial,commercial,residential and agricultural ) to estimate pollution levels of lead element and determine the correlation between lead concentration and natural factors in soil which represent sedimentary organic matter content, granular gradient, clay minerals and non-clay minerals . The results of the current study showed that the average concentration of lead in the soil samples was 61.12 ppm , it was noticed an increase in the concentration of lead in environmental components in the area of this study especially in residential , industrial and commercial location and the impact of natural factors of the so

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Qualification Of Human Resources To Apply Electronic Management A case study In The Ministry Of Science And Technology
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     This research aims to shed light on the reality of the process of rehabilitation of human resources for the implementation of electronic management practice in the ministry, and availability requirements of the application of electronic management and diagnosis of the most important stages and steps that can be followed in the process of transition towards electronic management to keep abreast of developments in the field of information technology, has been the application of this research in the Ministry of science and technology on a group of heads of departments and directors of the people in the departments of the Ministry through the use of case study method, which includes cohabitation field intervi

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Six-Sigma to measure the quality performance of the Department of Statistics-University of Baghdad-Case Study
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Abstract

            This research was to provide a definition of quality, dimensions and concepts, whether traditional or modern concept, as well as review the dimensions of quality in higher education and vision and mission with the overall objectives of the Statistics Department.

         After reviewing quality goals and purposes achieved as well as the mechanisms used to achieve them. and use standard Six-Sigma as one of the methodologies used in quality with the historical roots of using this methodology and methods applied and their definitions t

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2025
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Cognitive bias and its relationship to the performance of the two skills of standing on (hands and the human wheel) on the floor movement carpet device in the artistic gymnastics for women
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Manifestations of Media Incitement to Violence in Iraqi Satellite Channels- Out of the Iraqi Media's View.
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representing the media and communication problems and phenomena fertile material and of great importance in the media research, especially as they relate to various aspects of life and its impact on the culture of the community and on individuals and public opinion about the behavior of the various issues. The media incitement to violence and hatred of the most prominent media phenomena that increased the danger and expanded not at the local level, but also in the world. So we found it is important to study this problem from the standpoint of academic and professional. And according to the progress of this research is trying to answer a number of questions including:
A. What are the Iraqi Satellite TV channels most watched and follow

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