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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimation of a Parallel Stress-strength Model Based on the Inverse Kumaraswamy Distribution
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 The reliability of the stress-strength model attracted many statisticians for several years owing to its applicability in different and diverse parts such as engineering, quality control, and economics. In this paper, the system reliability estimation in the stress-strength model containing Kth parallel components will be offered by four types of shrinkage methods: constant Shrinkage Estimation Method, Shrinkage Function Estimator, Modified Thompson Type Shrinkage Estimator, Squared Shrinkage Estimator. The Monte Carlo simulation study is compared among proposed estimators using the mean squared error. The result analyses of the shrinkage estimation methods showed that the shrinkage functions estimator was the best since

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 11 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Directing Grammarians for Grammatical Dispute To Interpret and Explain the fourth part of the Holy Qur’an
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Abstract

 The miraculous of al-Quran has been surrounded by the attention of scholars, as it is the one that has astonished the rhetoricians with its eloquence. So , they paid attention to every part of it  and hugely they studied it with accuracy in respect to its Surah  ad Ayahs.   It is considered the most important source from which Arab scholars and early grammarians drew, given their unanimity that it is the highest degree of eloquence and the best record of the common literary language.

 

Among these sciences is the science of Grammar, and without Qur’an, this science would not have emerged, which later had control over every science of Arabic

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2004
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Setting standard levels for some offensive skill abilities according to basketball playing positions
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لا يزال المهتمون بلعبة كرة السلة يبحثون عن إيجاد الوسائل الأكثر أهمية وصولاً إلى ما تطمح إليه الدول لتحقيق افضل المستويات في نواحي اللعبة كافة من خلال التغلب على المعوقات التي تحول دون تقدمها إلى الأمام بالدراسة والبحث. ومن هذا المنطلق انصب البحث في ضرورة معالجة القصور الناتج عن عدم وجود المستويات المعيارية ذات العلاقة باختبارات قدرات اللاعبين وعلى وفق مراكز اللعب ولا سيما المهارية الهجومية، ومما شكل ذلك ضع

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
The Effect of Defensive Exercises in the Motor Response to Develop Some Defensive Skills for Young Basketball Players
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
KEY TO THE SPECIES OF THE ORTHETRUM NEWMAN, 1833 (ODONATA, LIBELLULIDAE) WITH A NEW RECORD SPECIES IN IRAQ
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This paper provides an identification key to the species of Orthetrum Newman, 1833 (Odonata, Libellulidae), including six species that were collected from different localities in Iraq.

 

    The species of O. anceps (Schneider, 1845) is registered as a new record in Iraq; the most important characters which are used in diagnostic key are included

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 20 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Disabilities Sports And Health Sciences
Analytical Thinking and its Relationship to the Performance of the Simple Response Skill in Foil Weapon for Students
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The purpose of this paper is to identifying the level of analytical thinking and its relationship to the skills of response and simple response to the foil weapon for students of the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, University of Basra. Achieving the objectives of the research requires the use of a research method, and accordingly, the researchers used the descriptive method using the survey method .The two researchers identified the research community with the students of the third stage - College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences / University of Basra / for the academic year (2021-2022). Their number is (45) students and the two researchers chose the entire research community to represent th

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Mineralogical study of Sand Dunes Fields in Najaf Governorate, Southern Iraq
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The purpose of the present paper is to define the minerals content in the Najaf Dunes fields and the origin of these sand sediments in the southwestern parts of Iraq. There are three types of dunes in this field were described, the barchan, longitudinal, and dome dunes and additional types e.g. Nabkha, Barchanoid ridges, and sand sheet dunes. The study area was divided into three areas according to the geographical position, and numerous samples were collected from this field.

The mineralogical study consists from three methods these are; the first: separation of sand samples into the light and heavy minerals by heavy liquids,where performed on 30 samples. The second method; carbonate content performed on 60 samples, and the thir

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Reservoir units of Mishrif Formation in Majnoon Oil field, Southern Iraq
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The reservoir units of Mishrif Formation in Majnoon oil field were studied by using available wireline logs (gamma ray, porosity and resistivity) and facies that derived from core and cutting samples for three wells including Mj-1, Mj-15, and Mj-20. The reservoir properties were determined and interpreted by using IP software. The results showed that unit D have the best reservoir properties due to high effective porosity, low water saturation and very low volume of shale. Furthermore, a large part of this unit was deposited in shoal environment. The other reservoir units are then graded in reservoir properties including units B, A, F & E respectively, except unit C, which is considered as a cap unit, because it consists of restricte

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 02 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
RESERVOIR MODELING OF MISHRIF FORMATION IN MAJNOON OIL FIELD, SOUTHERN IRAQ
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The Middle Cenomanian-Early Turonian Mishrif Formation includes important carbonate reservoirs in Iraq and some other surrounding countries due to their high reservoir quality and wide geological extension. The 2D models of this study for facies, effective porosity and water saturation indicate the vertical and lateral heterogeneity of the Mishrif Formation reservoir properties in the Majnoon oil field. Construction of 2D reservoir model of the Mishrif Formation to explain the distribution of facies and petrophysical properties (effective porosity and water saturation) by using RockWorks software. The increase of effective porosity is attributed to the presence of shoal facies.The high water saturation is attributed to the existence of rest

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Reservoir units of Mishrif Formation in Majnoon Oil field, Southern Iraq
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The reservoir units of Mishrif Formation in Majnoon oil field were studied by using available wireline logs (gamma ray, porosity and resistivity) and facies that derived from core and cutting samples for three wells including Mj-1, Mj-15, and Mj-20. The reservoir properties were determined and interpreted by using IP software. The results showed that unit D have the best reservoir properties due to high effective porosity, low water saturation and very low volume of shale. Furthermore, a large part of this unit was deposited in shoal environment. The other reservoir units are then graded in reservoir properties including units B, A, F & E respectively, except unit C, which is considered as a cap unit, because it consists of rest

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Scopus (12)
Crossref (9)
Scopus Crossref