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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon May 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Study to the Main Effects on the Auger de-excitation Transition
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  An Eigen-state expansion method is applied to the transition of the Auger de-excitation charge transfer (AD) process in the interaction between clean Cu,Al and Na surfaces and excited incident gases H and He .We use this method to describe the effective surfaces electronic structure. It's shown that the AD efficiency is deeply influenced by the presence of the energy band for the surfaces and the potential energy stored within the excited incident atom, thus for long interaction time we use a slowly atom's about 1KeV to scatter from metals surfaces where the electron couldn't probe the metal band structure and Za the surface - projectile distance. Also we drive a new formula for AD interaction Matrix element

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Impact of climatic fluctuations in the production of citrus in the province of Karbala
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The relationship between the elements of the climate and the productivity of citrus (kg
/ tree) in the province of Karbala has been determined through the use of simple correlation
coefficient of Pearson (rp) and (t) test. The result for each of oranges, limes and tangerine had
all shown moral and relevant statistical indications; except for relative humidity, which were
not linked to a moral relationship with productivity of tangerine, oranges and limes.As for the
relationship between climatic factors and yield of bitter orange were all not significant
statistically and very weak.
In order to determine the strength of the correlation between fluctuations in the
climatic elements and fluctuations in the productivi

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing Bayesian methods to estimate the failure probability for electronic systems in case the life time data are not available
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In this research, we find the Bayesian formulas and the estimation of Bayesian expectation for product system of Atlas Company.  The units of the system have been examined by helping the technical staff at the company and by providing a real data the company which manufacturer the system.  This real data include the failed units for each drawn sample, which represents the total number of the manufacturer units by the company system.  We calculate the range for each estimator by using the Maximum Likelihood estimator.  We obtain that the expectation-Bayesian estimation is better than the Bayesian estimator of the different partially samples which were drawn from the product system after  it checked by the

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Manifestations of Media Incitement to Violence in Iraqi Satellite Channels- Out of the Iraqi Media's View.
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representing the media and communication problems and phenomena fertile material and of great importance in the media research, especially as they relate to various aspects of life and its impact on the culture of the community and on individuals and public opinion about the behavior of the various issues. The media incitement to violence and hatred of the most prominent media phenomena that increased the danger and expanded not at the local level, but also in the world. So we found it is important to study this problem from the standpoint of academic and professional. And according to the progress of this research is trying to answer a number of questions including:
A. What are the Iraqi Satellite TV channels most watched and follow

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Sources of income subject to tax in the Iraqi Income Tax Law No.113 of 1982
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The tax is a financial amount collected from the taxpayer for the account of the public treasury.. and is the cornerstone of the close bond between members of the community and the country in which they live , as income tax is imposed on the profits and revenues achieved by people and often the constitution of most contemporary countries stipulate that the legislator is obligated to determine the sources of revenues and profits subjected to tax. Because the tax has a serious impact on people’s money because it is exposed to that money through direct deduction . Therefore, we note that the applicable income Tax Law stipulated that in order income to be subject to tax , it must be derived from one or more of the income sources st

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation suppliers according to the integration of the Quality Function Deployment and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
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The process of evaluating business processes, complex, repetition of procurement processes, need for raw materials and frequency of demand, which makes dealing with suppliers in the evaluation process, making the need for a process intervention in the process. Lighter on the other hand.

Many Iraqi companies suffer from problems related to suppliers, and cases of administrative and financial corruption are often raised regarding this type of contract and from this reality the necessity of researching this problem and trying to develop some solutions to reduce its impact on the companies' work, by using a method that works according to the standards adopted in Evaluation and selection of the supplier in the

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Personality types (The Enneagram) among the lecturers of Baghdad University and its relation to some variables
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The current study is aimed to identify personality types of the lecturers of Baghdad University as well as identify the prevailing types among the lecturers. In addition, the study aimed to identify the significant difference among personality types (The Enneagram) according to the variables of academic title and scientific major . One hundred and ninety four lecturers were involved in this study. In order to achieve the study's aims, the scale of (Baron& Wagele 1994) was used to measure the nine personality types (The Enneagram) that was translated by( Anwar Omar Ibrahim 2012). Some statistical analysis were used and the result demonstrated that Romantic types was found to be the most prevailing types among the lecturers of Baghdad

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 11 2018
Journal Name
دراسات تربوية
Understanding the nature of the scientific endeavor among chemistry teachers according to the Educational Reform Project 2061
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effect Of Talent Management To Achieve Organizational sac seed Research in The General Company for Dairy Products in Baghdad
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The research aims at identifying the extent to which the top management in the organization is interested in managing the talents of its employees, through which it can face the competing organizations, as well as the great challenges faced by all organizations in recent years. The task of attracting and maintaining talented human resources is one of the biggest challenges facing Organizations 
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 09 2021
Journal Name
Turkish Journal Of Computer And Mathematics Education
An Analysis of the Mathematics Book for the First Intermediate Grade According to the Dimensions of Mathematical Power
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The current research aims to analyze the mathematics book for the first intermediate grade according to the dimensions of mathematical power by answering the following question: What is the percentage of the availability of the dimensions of mathematical power included in the content of the mathematics textbook for first-grade students, average, in its first, and second parts for the academic year 2020-2021, approved by the Iraqi Ministry of Education / General Directorate of Curricula? The research community was determined by middle school mathematics books, and middle school students for middle ,and high school day schools affiliated to the Directorate of Education in Dhi Qar, and by the intentional test, the research sample was s

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