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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Functional Satisfaction for Faculty Members To Girls College of Education at The University of Baghdad
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The aim of this research is to find out the satisfaction functional for faculty members
To Girls College of education at the University of Baghdad, and to find out the differences in this variable according to gender and qualification of education.
The sample was chosen from 60 teachers (males – females), they applied a questionnaire consisting of (30) paragraphs after the verifying of sincerity and persistence for paragraphs.
The main findings of the studies,
The results are indicated that the samples (faculty members) have a good level of satisfaction functional. In addition, results are shown; there are no significant differences of statistically between males and females for the faculty members. However, results are sho

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Solving Resource Allocation Model by Using Dynamic Optimization Technique for Al-Raji Group Companies for Soft Drinks and Juices
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In this paper, the problem of resource allocation at Al-Raji Company for soft drinks and juices was studied. The company produces several types of tasks to produce juices and soft drinks, which need machines to accomplish these tasks, as it has 6 machines that want to allocate to 4 different tasks to accomplish these tasks. The machines assigned to each task are subject to failure, as these machines are repaired to participate again in the production process. From past records of the company, the probability of failure machines at each task was calculated depending on company data information. Also, the time required for each machine to complete each task was recorded. The aim of this paper is to determine the minimum expected ti

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Preparation of unsaturated polyester/nano ceramic composite and study electric, thermal and mechanical properties
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The composites were manufactured and study the effect of addition of filler (nanoparticles SiO2 treated with silane) at different weight ratios (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) %, on electrical, mechanical and thermal properties. Materials were mixed with each other using an ultrasound, and then pour the mixture into the molds to suit all measurements. The electrical characteristics were studied within a range of frequencies (50-1M) Hz at room temperature, where the best results were shown at the fill ratio (1%), and thermal properties at (X=3 %), the mechanical properties at the filler ratio (2%).

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 18 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Social Sciences And Humanities
THE EFFECT OF EXERCISE SPECIFIC TO USE DESIGNER (QUALITY RESPONSE) DEVICE TO DEVELOP THE SPEED AND ACCURACY OF THE RECEPTION AND PASSING SKILLS OF FOOTBALL PLAYERS IN AGES (14 YEARS)
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison of Parameters Estimation Methods for the Negative Binomial Regression Model under Multicollinearity Problem by Using Simulation
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This study discussed a biased estimator of the Negative Binomial Regression model known as (Liu Estimator), This estimate was used to reduce variance and overcome the problem Multicollinearity between explanatory variables, Some estimates were used such as Ridge Regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimators, This research aims at the theoretical comparisons between the new estimator (Liu Estimator) and the estimators

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Advanced Research In Hr And Organizational Management
Entrepreneurial Performance of the Organization According to the Approved Training Strategy
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The research aims to determine the role of the training strategy with its dimensions of (strategic analysis, formulation of training strategy, implementation of training strategy, evaluation) in the pioneering performance of the organization with its dimensions of (pre-planning , renewal and modernization, efficiency, effectiveness). Important and modern in pioneering performance and training strategy, and in recognition of the importance of the subject and the expected results of the surveyed banks, an analysis was made of the data obtained through field visits in addition to the questionnaire and interviews ,and the most prominent results that were reached were taking the research sample into consideration all the requirements of the trai

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The value of work to the Elits of prophets and its influence on cultural construction
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Praise be to Allah and peace and blessings be upon our Prophet Muhammad and on his family and companions
Yet,
The prophets (peace be upon them) urged all thevalues and one of these is the value of work which is of a great importance, that all nations have gathered against us as the eaters gather at a bowl. One of the reasons of our weakness and the strength of our enemy is that we have neglected the value of work. And rather a large number of ignorant and uneducatedpeople started to believe that the means of living, triumph, gaining power, and establishing a civilization are given by Allah with neithergainingnoreffort from us. While we find in the past that Allah the Almighty narrated to us the story of Mary (Peace be upon her) and

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 29 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The attitude of Imam Ibn Jarir al-Tabari to the occurrence of unanimous and its convening by statement of the majority in light of his interpretation - Jami` al-Bayan on the interpretation of the verse of the Qur’an -‘‘Applied Models’’
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The research deals with the statement of the importance of unanimous in Islamic Sharia in terms of being the third source of Islamic legislation after the Holy Qur’an and the Sunnah of the Prophet, and the extent of interest of the scholars of interpretation in it, and those who took great interest in mentioning what was agreed upon in every site that necessitated mentioning its issues within, or mentioning an event that has encountered an unanimous, and in various sciences, to extract and extrapolate Sharia rules when these rules are lost in the texts, because it is based on them and derived from them. Among these distinguished scholars is Muhammad bin Jarir al-Tabari. Besides, the research discusses in

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposing Robust IRWs Technique to Estimate Segmented Regression Model for the Bed load Transport of Tigris River with Change Point of Water Discharge Amount at Baghdad City
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Segmented regression consists of several sections separated by different points of membership, showing the heterogeneity arising from the process of separating the segments within the research sample. This research is concerned with estimating the location of the change point between segments and estimating model parameters, and proposing a robust estimation method and compare it with some other methods that used in the segmented regression. One of the traditional methods (Muggeo method) has been used to find the maximum likelihood estimator in an iterative approach for the model and the change point as well. Moreover, a robust estimation method (IRW method) has used which depends on the use of the robust M-estimator technique in

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
the role of senior management commitment to total quality in the implementation of knowledge management processes_Asurvey of asample of civil colleges
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Occupies total quality management applications play a key role in the development of institutions of higher education performance and achieve its strategic objectives through the commitment of senior management and their employees to continuous improvement of the quality of performance in the various areas of work, and can be integrated knowledge management processes, which means identifying information of value and how to take advantage. The data were collected using the style of the questionnaire for the purpose of analyzing their results on a sample composed of 83 member of the administrative leadership in colleges as representing the decision-making centers in those colleges . 

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