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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
Forecasting the Saudi Crude Oil Price Using MS-GARCH Model
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
الأستاذ
Analysis of the content of the chemistry book for the second intermediate grade according to habits of mind In light of the educational reform project (2061)
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The economic dimensions of the railway link between Iraq and Kuwait and the role of national alternatives (Faw port and the dry canal as a model(
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   Decision-makers in each country work to define a list of internal and external interests, goals and threats to their countries according to the nature of their awareness of these interests, goals and threats. 

  Hence, Iraq is not an exception to this rule, and the process of evaluating its interests and the objectives of its foreign policy is subject to the pattern of awareness of decision-makers and the influencing forces in defining its basic interests, which often witness some kind of difference in defining them, evaluating their importance and determining the size of the threats they face. And among these interests and threats that have witnessed a difference in the assessment of their

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison of Parameters Estimation Methods for the Negative Binomial Regression Model under Multicollinearity Problem by Using Simulation
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This study discussed a biased estimator of the Negative Binomial Regression model known as (Liu Estimator), This estimate was used to reduce variance and overcome the problem Multicollinearity between explanatory variables, Some estimates were used such as Ridge Regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimators, This research aims at the theoretical comparisons between the new estimator (Liu Estimator) and the estimators

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Publication Date
Wed May 12 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of The Romanian Society For Cell Biology
Cognitive Motivation among Students of the Faculty of Education and its Relationship to the Trend to Teaching Profession
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The present research aims to identify thecorrelation between cognitive motivation andthe trend towards the teaching profession among students of the Department of Chemistry in theFaculty of Education for Pure Sciences - Ibn al-Haytham, as well as to identify the differences in the relationship according to the variable type (male, female). The measures of cognitive motivation and the trend towards the teaching profession were applied, using pearson's correlation coefficient,t-testfor one sample, andthe t-test of two separate samples.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 30 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Determination of petrophysical properties of Sadi Formation in Halfaya oil field, southern Iraq
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   This study aimed to evaluate the reservoir petrophysical properties (porosity, water saturation, and permeability) for optimal flow unit assessment within the Sadi Formation. Utilizing open hole logging data from five wells, the Sadi formation was divided into two rock units. The upper unit (A) is 45-50 meters thick, mainly consisting of limestone, mainly consisting of shaly limestone at the lower part. The lower unit (B) has a thickness of approximately 75-80 meters and is primarily composed of limestone, further subdivided into three subunits (B1, B2, B3). The average water resistivity is 0.04 ohm-m, and the average mud filtrate resistivity is 0.06 ohm-m. The Pickett plot was utilized to determine Archie parameters (tortuosit

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 14 2022
Journal Name
Biomedicine
Molecular characterization of HBB gene mutations in beta-thalassemia patients of Southern Iraq
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Introduction and Aim: Beta-thalassemia is a serious inherited genetic disorder and an increasing health burden globally. Beta -thalassemia is caused by genetic globin abnormalities within the hemoglobin beta (HBB) gene. This study aimed to characterize the HBB gene mutations in beta -thalassemia among southern Iraqi patients. Materials and Methods: The study included 30 beta -thalassemia patients referred to the Thi-Qar Center for Genetic Diseases, Iraq and 15 control samples from a random group of apparently healthy individuals. Genomic DNA was isolated from blood sample collected from each individual. The DNA was amplified for specific regions of the HBB gene and the amplified products sequenced. The sequences generated were analysed for

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Solving Resource Allocation Model by Using Dynamic Optimization Technique for Al-Raji Group Companies for Soft Drinks and Juices
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In this paper, the problem of resource allocation at Al-Raji Company for soft drinks and juices was studied. The company produces several types of tasks to produce juices and soft drinks, which need machines to accomplish these tasks, as it has 6 machines that want to allocate to 4 different tasks to accomplish these tasks. The machines assigned to each task are subject to failure, as these machines are repaired to participate again in the production process. From past records of the company, the probability of failure machines at each task was calculated depending on company data information. Also, the time required for each machine to complete each task was recorded. The aim of this paper is to determine the minimum expected ti

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposing Robust IRWs Technique to Estimate Segmented Regression Model for the Bed load Transport of Tigris River with Change Point of Water Discharge Amount at Baghdad City
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Segmented regression consists of several sections separated by different points of membership, showing the heterogeneity arising from the process of separating the segments within the research sample. This research is concerned with estimating the location of the change point between segments and estimating model parameters, and proposing a robust estimation method and compare it with some other methods that used in the segmented regression. One of the traditional methods (Muggeo method) has been used to find the maximum likelihood estimator in an iterative approach for the model and the change point as well. Moreover, a robust estimation method (IRW method) has used which depends on the use of the robust M-estimator technique in

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of external borrowing to bridge the federal budget deficit of the Republic of Iraq
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 The deficit budget, one of the results of increased public spending for their revenues due to the economic pressures imposed by the interest of the economies of those countries from the need to increase government spending in order to revitalize the national economy and accelerate economic growth rates and provide employment to the growing levels of unemployment in those countries opportunities and what is required to address the current debt crisis (borrowing), which has become a big burden on the governments and the need to move towards the application of austerity spending and tax increases, which inevitably forced those countries will be reflected reduced spending on basic aspects of life and their peoples, particularly earners

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