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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the market knowledge to improve marketing performance an empirical study for mobil communication companies in iraq
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       The study aimed to determine the extent of market knowledge in the companies researched, as if market knowledge is qualified to lead the companies researched to achieve marketing performance , for this purpose, formulated hypotheses of the study in three hypotheses, the first major hypothesis "there is a correlation with significance of market knowledge to improve the marketing performance  , "while the second major hypothesis, "there is a significant moral influence of market knowledge to improve the marketing performance  " these hypotheses targeting to determine the role played by market knowledge in the leadership of companies researched to achieve improvement in marketing perfor

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Some Estimator Methods of Linear Regression Model With Auto-Correlated Errors With Application Data for the Wheat in Iraq
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This research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Diyala Journal For Pure Science
Employing difference technique in some Liu estimators to semiparametric regression model
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Semiparametric methods combined parametric methods and nonparametric methods ,it is important in most of studies which take in it's nature more progress in the procedure of accurate statistical analysis which aim getting estimators efficient, the partial linear regression model is considered the most popular type of semiparametric models, which consisted of parametric component and nonparametric component in order to estimate the parametric component that have certain properties depend on the assumptions concerning the parametric component, where the absence of assumptions, parametric component will have several problems for example multicollinearity means (explanatory variables are interrelated to each other) , To treat this problem we use

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The importance of foreign direct investment in stimulating non-oil exports Of Iraq According to the Turkish experience
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Foreign trade is very important in global economies because of its impact on the sustainability of economic growth by stimulating economic activity, creating jobs and expanding production . On the other side , this policy is a major obstacle to many developing countries and the reason is due to the nature of the economies of those countries because they rely mostly on one or a few economic resources, which makes them rely mostly on exports to that resource while they import most of the needs of their  local market Which makes them in a spiral of underdevelopment ,  dependence and economic exposure, which requires them to break that cycle and the launch of economic development Perhaps one of the most important means to a

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 20 2023
Journal Name
Sustainability
The Economic Impacts of Using Renewable Energy Technologies for Irrigation Water Pumping and Nanoparticle Fertilizers on Agri-Food Production in Iraq
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While traditional energy sources such as oil, coal, and natural gas drive economic growth, they also seriously affect people’s health and the environment. Renewable energies (RE) are presently seen as an efficient choice for attaining long-term sustainability in development. They provide an adequate response to climate change and supply sufficient electricity. The current situation in Iraq results from a decades-long scarcity of reliable electricity, which has impacted various industries, including agriculture. There are diverse prospects for using renewable energy sources to address the present power crisis. The economic and environmental impacts of renewable energy systems were investigated in this study by using the solar pumpi

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of African Earth Sciences
Lithofacies types, mineralogical assemblages and depositional model of the Maastrichtian–Danian successions in the Western Desert of Iraq and eastern Jordan
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An integrated lithofacies and mineralogical assemblage was used to describe a depositional model and sequence stratigraphic framework of the Maastrichtian–Danian succession in the Western Desert of Iraq and eastern Jordan. Fifteen lithofacies types were grouped into three associations recognized in a distally steepened ramp characterized by an apparent, distinct increase in a gradient paleobathymetric deepening westward. The clay and nonclay minerals are dominated by smectite and palygorskite, with trace amounts of kaolinite, sepiolite, illite and chlorite. Meanwhile, quartz, calcite, dolomite, opal CT (Cristobalite - Tridymite), and apatite are the main nonclay minerals. The widely dominated smectite in the Western Phosphatic Basin of Ir

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 20 2022
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
DESCRIPTION OF THE PREDATOR BUSH CRICKET, SAGA EPHIPPIGERA FISCHER VON WALDHEIM, 1846 (ORTHOPTERA, TETTIGONIIDAE) FROM ERBIL PROVINCE, KURDISTAN REGION- IRAQ
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The predatory bush crickets Saga ephippigera Fischer Von Waldheim, 1846 is the largest Iraqi orthopterans and one of the most active and successful predators in the Kurdistan region. The nymphs and adults prey on all the stages of various species of insects. Twelve adult specimens were collected from Erbil Province during May 2018 and June 2021. Morphological structures of the adult insects were described and illustrated in details; important taxonomic characteristics of body regions with their appendages were chosen; and the results indicated the importance of morphological characteristics which confirmed the identification of this species correctly.

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Publication Date
Tue May 23 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Namibian Studies : History Politics Culture
The Ability of Cities to Withstand the Disasters of Pandemic
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This study examines the opportunity presented by the COVID-19 pandemic for city planners and leaders to learn from the crisis and build resilient cities with long-term societal, economic, and environmental resilience against future disasters. The research focuses on the relationship between urban planning and policies and the extent of their resilience, particularly in response to pandemic-related disasters. The study evaluates the ability of the city of Baghdad to respond to the pandemic and identifies gaps in its resilience. The study uses the scorecard measurement instrument to examine the disaster resilience of cities, with a focus on governance and financial capability, disaster planning and preparedness, and disaster response

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 14 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The Effect of Using Ginger (Zingiber officinale) to Prevente Salmonella typhi. in Some Food Products.: The Effect of Using Ginger (Zingiber officinale) to Prevente Salmonella typhi. in Some Food Products.
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This study was conducted in order to statement the effect of ginger (Zingiber officinale) extracts in reducing the presence of the bacterium Salmonella typhimurium in some foods products.
Qualitative disclosures effective chemical compounds (alkaloids, flavonoids, phenols, tannins, terpenes) showed that the extracts of ginger an effective compounds as follows: oil extract and fresh juice> aqueous extract warm> aqueous extract cold. And studied the impact extract of fresh ginger juice, hot water ,cold water and oil rates extracts (1,2,3)% in bacteria test has shown that all s of extracts clear impact inhibition has oily extract of ginger recorded the highest value to inhibition zone reaching 35 mm when the concentration of 3%, f

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of integration between the earned value management model and the value flow map in rationalizing the costs of construction projects: applied research in Al-Rasheed General Company for Construction Contracting
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The research problem is that most of the construction projects exceed the planned value, due to the failure to implement the plans on time. The current study aims to monitor the implementation of the project and for each of the executed tasks of the table of quantities in order to detect deviations at the time they occur, evaluate the time and cost performance, and then identify the areas of waste and analyze the implementation of each task in order to diagnose the underlying problems and find possible and applicable solutions in the environment Iraqi. The research was applied in one of the companies specialized in the field of construction projects, and one of the most important conclusions reached is the possibility of applying

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