In this paper has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed with a problem of heteroscdastic , passing through the phase estimation using the method of Maximum Likelihood Conditional and on the assumption that the random error is distributed normal distribution with the application on more than one rank for seasonal model, then determine the appropriate rank of the specimen using a variety of standards down to the prediction phase, it has been shown through the application on the study data stages that the best model for predicting volatility is SGARCH (1,0)(1,0).
Abstract
In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
... Show MoreFiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).
It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha
... Show MoreThe study aims at investigating the effectiveness of the Virtual Library Technology, in developing the achievement of the English Language Skills in the Center of Development and Continuous Education, in comparison with the individual learning via personal computer to investigate the students' attitude towards the use of both approaches. The population of the study includes the participants in the English Language course arranged in the Center. The sample includes 60 students who were randomly chosen from the whole population (participants in English Courses for the year 2009-2010). The sample is randomly chosen and divided into two experimental groups. The first group has learned through classroom technology; while the other group has l
... Show MoreThis research aims to address the most recent international standard in the field of insurance contracts, the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS17) and the theoretical framework of the standard in addition to the most important characteristics of the standard (IFRS17), as well as to identify the paragraphs of the modern standard, with the challenges its application in general and the use of the approach (inputs - operations - outputs) to present the challenges of its application in the Iraqi environment and specifically in the environment of Iraqi insurance sector companies (government), the research is based on the main premise that the identification of the requirements for the application of the International Fin
... Show MoreSelf-driving automobiles are prominent in science and technology, which affect social and economic development. Deep learning (DL) is the most common area of study in artificial intelligence (AI). In recent years, deep learning-based solutions have been presented in the field of self-driving cars and have achieved outstanding results. Different studies investigated a variety of significant technologies for autonomous vehicles, including car navigation systems, path planning, environmental perception, as well as car control. End-to-end learning control directly converts sensory data into control commands in autonomous driving. This research aims to identify the most accurate pre-trained Deep Neural Network (DNN) for predicting the steerin
... Show MoreThe research aims to measure the efficiency of health services Quality in the province of Karbala, using the Data Envelopment analysis Models in ( 2006). According to these models the degree of efficiency ranging between zero and unity. We estimate Scale efficiency for two types of orientation direction, which are input and output oriented direction.
The results showed, according Input-oriented efficiency that the levels of Scale efficiency on average is ( 0.975), in the province of Karbala. While the index of Output-oriented efficiency on average is (o.946).
It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s
... Show MoreThe importance of Public Relations activity has increased during the last half of the last century as a specialized and modern administrative function in most institutions. It has, moreover, become an integral part of activities of those institutions of various types, due to its pivotal role in building its reputation and drawing a good mental image among its audiences, as well as its influential and basic role in maintaining communication and the communication between its members at its various levels and their job tasks to ensure the greatest amount of understanding and to enhance trust between them. This is why public relations activity has become indispensable in all institutions, and without it, it is difficult to achieve any coordi
... Show MoreThe purchase of a home and access to housing is one of the most important requirements for the life of the individual and the stability of living and the development of the prices of houses in general and in Baghdad in particular affected by several factors, including the basic area of the house, the age of the house, the neighborhood in which the housing is available and the basic services, Where the statistical model SSM model was used to model house prices over a period of time from 2000 to 2018 and forecast until 2025 The research is concerned with enhancing the importance of this model and describing it as a standard and important compared to the models used in the analysis of time series after obtaining the
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