Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
The double-skin profiled composite wall (DSPCW) system, filled with concrete material, is favorable in modern structures due to its high strength and ductility. Openings may be required within this composite wall (DSPCW) for various reasons, similar to a conventional bearing wall, which can lead to a reduction in bearing capacity. Therefore, to avoid changes in the geometry, materials, and thickness of this DSPCW wall, a new internally stiffening concept has been suggested by providing embedded cold-formed steel tube (CFST) columns. For this purpose, two full-scale DSPCW specimens were tested under static axial load, one of which was fabricated with a large opening size and stiffened with two octagonal CFST columns, while the other
... Show MoreCurrent numerical research was devoted to investigating the effect of castellated steel beams without and with strengthening. The composite concrete asymmetrical double hot rolled steel channels bolted back to back to obtain a built-up I-shape form are used in this study. The top half part of the steel is smaller than the bottom half part, and the two parts were connected by bolting and welding. The ABAQUS/2019 program employed the same length and conditions of loading for four models: The first model is the reference without castellated and strengthening; the second model was castellated without strengthened; the third model was castellated and strengthened with reactive powder concrete encased in the
... Show MoreThe present study analyzes the effect of couple stress fluid (CSF) with the activity of connected inclined magnetic field (IMF) of a non-uniform channel (NUC) through a porous medium (PM), taking into account the sliding speed effect on channel walls and the effect of nonlinear particle size, applying long wavelength and low Reynolds count estimates. The mathematical expressions of axial velocity, stream function, mechanical effect and increase in pressure have been analytically determined. The effect of the physical parameter is included in the present model in the computational results. The results of this algorithm have been presented in chart form by applying the mathematical program.
Local and global bifurcations of food web model consists of immature and mature preys, first predator, and second predator with the current of toxicity and harvesting was studied. It is shown that a trans-critical bifurcation occurs at the equilibrium point
In this paper, the general framework for calculating the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator system with an SI type of disease in the prey population, is investigated. The impact of the incubation period delay on disease transmission utilizing a nonlinear incidence rate was taken into account. For the purpose of explaining the predation process, a modified Holling type II functional response was used. First, the existence, uniform boundedness, and positivity of the solutions of the considered model system, along with the behavior of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, are studied. The critical values of the delay parameter for which stability switches and the nature of the Hopf bifurcat
... Show MoreThe interplay of predation, competition between species and harvesting is one of the most critical aspects of the environment. This paper involves exploring the dynamics of four species' interactions. The system includes two competitive prey and two predators; the first prey is preyed on by the first predator, with the former representing an additional food source for the latter. While the second prey is not exposed to predation but rather is exposed to the harvest. The existence of possible equilibria is found. Conditions of local and global stability for the equilibria are derived. To corroborate our findings, we constructed time series to illustrate the existence and the stability of equilibria numerically by varying the different values
... Show MoreLaurylamine hydrochloride CH3(CH2)11 NH3 – Cl has been chosen from cationic surfactants to produce secondary oil using lab. model shown in fig. (1). The relationship between interfacial tension and (temperature, salinity and solution concentration) have been studied as shown in fig. (2, 3, 4) respectively. The optimum values of these three variables are taken (those values that give the lowest interfacial tension). Saturation, permeability and porosity are measured in the lab. The primary oil recovery was displaced by water injection until no more oil can be obtained, then laurylamine chloride is injected as a secondary oil recovery. The total oil recovery is 96.6% or 88.8% of the residual oil has been recovered by this technique as shown
... Show MoreThe large number of failure in electrical power plant leads to the sudden stopping of work. In some cases, the necessary reserve materials are not available for maintenance which leads to interrupt of power generation in the electrical power plant unit. The present study, deals with the determination of availability aspects of generator in unit 5 of Al-Dourra electric power plant. In order to evaluate this generator's availability performance, a wide range of studies have been conducted to gather accurate information at the level of detail considered suitable to achieve the availability analysis aim. The Weibull Distribution is used to perform the reliability analysis via Minitab 17, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) by approaching o
... Show MoreRutting is a crucial concern impacting asphalt concrete pavements’ stability and long-term performance, negatively affecting vehicle drivers’ comfort and safety. This research aims to evaluate the permanent deformation of pavement under different traffic and environmental conditions using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) prediction model. The model was built based on the outcomes of an experimental uniaxial repeated loading test of 306 cylindrical specimens. Twelve independent variables representing the materials’ properties, mix design parameters, loading settings, and environmental conditions were implemented in the model, resulting in a total of 3214 data points. The network accomplished high prediction accuracy with an R
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