Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used as a model for failure since this distribution is proper when the failure rate somewhat high in starting operation and these rates will be decreased with increasing time .
In practical side a comparison was made between (Shrinkage and Maximum likelihood) Estimators for parameter and reliability function using simulation , we conclude that the Shrinkage estimators for parameters are better than maximum likelihood estimators but the maximum likelihood estimator for reliability function is the better using statistical measures (MAPE)and (MSE) and for different sample sizes.
Note:- ns : small sample ; nm=median sample
... Show MoreThe presented work shows a preliminary analytic method for estimation of load and pressure distributions on low speed wings with flow separation and wake rollup phenomena’s. A higher order vortex panel method is coupled with the numerical lifting line theory by means of iterative procedure including models of separation and wake rollup. The computer programs are written in FORTRAN which are stable and efficient.
The capability of the present method is investigated through a number of test cases with different types of wing sections (NACA 0012 and GA(W)-1) for different aspect ratios and angles of attack, the results include the lift and drag curves, lift and pressure distributions along the wing s
... Show MoreThis study aims to know the degree of importance and the availability of the enhancing specifications of the educational process, and the way its objectives are achieved. Such a step involves using educational techniques, laying the selection foundations, knowing the methods of their employment and tracking the obstacles that limit this employment in teaching Arabic to non-native speakers. To achieve these objectives, the study followed a descriptive approach, and collected the necessary data through an integrated questionnaire prepared for the purpose of describing the phenomenon or topic. This approach was adopted, as it is characterized by being comprehensive, focuses on collecting data related and necessary to the topic under study.
... Show MoreThe large number of failure in electrical power plant leads to the sudden stopping of work. In some cases, the necessary reserve materials are not available for maintenance which leads to interrupt of power generation in the electrical power plant unit. The present study, deals with the determination of availability aspects of generator in unit 5 of Al-Dourra electric power plant. In order to evaluate this generator's availability performance, a wide range of studies have been conducted to gather accurate information at the level of detail considered suitable to achieve the availability analysis aim. The Weibull Distribution is used to perform the reliability analysis via Minitab 17, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) by approaching o
... Show MoreRutting is a crucial concern impacting asphalt concrete pavements’ stability and long-term performance, negatively affecting vehicle drivers’ comfort and safety. This research aims to evaluate the permanent deformation of pavement under different traffic and environmental conditions using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) prediction model. The model was built based on the outcomes of an experimental uniaxial repeated loading test of 306 cylindrical specimens. Twelve independent variables representing the materials’ properties, mix design parameters, loading settings, and environmental conditions were implemented in the model, resulting in a total of 3214 data points. The network accomplished high prediction accuracy with an R
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Abstract
Rayleigh distribution is one of the important distributions used for analysis life time data, and has applications in reliability study and physical interpretations. This paper introduces four different methods to estimate the scale parameter, and also estimate reliability function; these methods are Maximum Likelihood, and Bayes and Modified Bayes, and Minimax estimator under squared error loss function, for the scale and reliability function of the generalized Rayleigh distribution are obtained. The comparison is done through simulation procedure, t
... Show Moreالمقدمة
تتعامل الجهات الضريبية في مختلف دول العالم بأساليب عديدة لجباية الضرائب من المكلفين بغض النظر عن فئات وأصناف هؤلاء المكلفين،وفي العراق تم اعتماد العديد من الأساليب لجباية الضرائب على امتداد المدد الزمنية المتعاقبة،وكان لأسلوب التقدير الذاتي وهو أحد تلك الأساليب مجالاً للتطبيق خلال مدة زمنية معينة،حيث جرى تطبيق هذا الأسلوب على وحدات اقتصادية معينة، وبالرغم من المساوئ التي قد ترافق تطبيق
... Show MoreMany of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem
... Show MoreConcrete structures is affected by a deleterious reaction, which is known as Alkali Aggregate Reaction (AAR). AAR can be defined as a chemical reaction between the alkali content in the pore water solution of the cement paste and reactive forms of silica hold in the aggregate. This internal reaction produces expansion and cracking in concrete, which can lead to loss of strength and stiffness. Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) is one of the methods used to suppress further AAR expansion and rehabilitate and support damaged concrete structures. In this research, thirty-six cylindrical specimens were fabricated from non-reactive and reactive concrete, which contained fused silica as