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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analysing inequality in the Distribution of Economic Welfare in Suleimania Governorate during (2007):
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Abstract

 The issue of inequality in distribution of income and / or consumption expenditure is related to economic welfare because there is an inverse relationship between the economic welfare on the one hand, and the degree of inequality, on the other hand. Despite the fact that inequality is considered as normal phenomenon in every society, but if it exceeded certain limits it will lead to undesirable economic, social and political consequences. Therefore, the availability of indicators about inequality is a necessary tool for planning and evaluation of economic development programs. So, current study is aiming at measuring and analyzing the degree of inequality in distribution of consumpti

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Quantitative Analysis To Assess The Efficiency Of The Transport Network In Sader City
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     This research examines the quantitative analysis to assess the efficiency of the transport network in Sadr City, where the study area suffers from a large traffic movement  for the variability of traffic flow and intensity at peak hours as a result of inside traffic and outside of it, especially in the neighborhoods of population with  economic concentration.                                                           &n

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparative study of stylistic kriging and Co - kriging Multivariate on the barley crop in Iraq
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  This paper deals  the prediction of the process of  random spatial data of two properties, the first is called  Primary variables  and the second is called secondary  variables ,   the method  that were used in the  prediction process for this type  of data is technique Co-kriging  , the method is usually used when the number of primary variables  meant to predict for one of its elements is measured in a particular location a few (because of the cost or difficulty of obtaining them) compare with secondary variable which is the number of elements  are available and  highly correlated with primary variables, as was the&nbs

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The extent to which the content of social and national studies courses is included With interactive thinking maps for the stages of public education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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The present study aimed to identify the extent to which the content of social and national studies courses was included in interactive thinking maps in the educational stages in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and to achieve the goal of the study, the researcher used the descriptive and analytical approach, and the study tool used consisted of a content analysis card; Where it included a list of the types of thinking maps, where the study sample consisted of all social and national studies courses at the elementary and intermediate levels, and it is (12) books for the student in its first and second parts, and after verifying the validity and reliability of the tool, it was applied to the study sample, and the study reached conclusions, inc

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Robust Principal Components Depends on the some methods of Projection-Pursuit
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The analysis of the classic principal components are sensitive to the outliers where they are calculated from the characteristic values and characteristic vectors of correlation matrix or variance Non-Robust, which yields an incorrect results in the case of these data contains the outliers values. In order to treat this problem, we resort to use the robust methods where there are many robust methods Will be touched to some of them.

   The robust measurement estimators include the measurement of direct robust estimators for characteristic values by using characteristic vectors without relying on robust estimators for the   variance and covariance matrices. Also the analysis of the princ

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Semi-Analytical Assessment of Magneto-Hydrodynamic Nano-Fluid Flow Jeffrey- Hamel Problem
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In this paper, analyzing the non-dimensional Magnesium-hydrodynamics problem Using nanoparticles in Jeffrey-Hamel flow (JHF) has been studied. The fundamental equations for this issue are reduced to a three-order ordinary differential equation. The current project investigated the effect of the angles between the plates, Reynolds number, nanoparticles volume fraction parameter, and magnetic number on the velocity distribution by using analytical technique known as a perturbation iteration scheme (PIS). The effect of these parameters is similar in the converging and diverging channels except magnetic number that it is different in the divergent channel. Furthermore, the resulting solutions with good convergence and high accuracy for the d

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
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Effect of irrigation type and method on the cost of producing dunum of wheat crop
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Abstract :  This research is concerned with studying the best type and method of  irrigation as well as the best cultivated area to reduce the cost of producing  dunums of wheat crop in Iraq , and was based on data taken from the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization About cost of wheat crop production for (12) Iraqi governorates except Kurdistan, Nineveh, Salah al-Din, Anbar) and the sample size (554) according to the cost survey carried out by the Ministry of Planning / Central Statistical Organization for 2017, The results of the research showed that there are significant statistical differences between production costs when using t

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Zooplankton composition and structure in the Indus River Estuary, Sindh, Pakistan
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In this study abundance and composition of zooplanktons in the Indus River Estuary was conducted to examine habitat characteristics and its impact on tiny organisms. Overall 30,656 individuals were identified and segregated into seven major groups including Copepods, Cnidarians, Decapods, Mollusk, Pisces, Amphipods and Chaetognaths. For better understanding they were further divided into eighteen planktonic categories. Among them Lucifer spp. comprises of 52.21% was the most abundant group with a peak appeared in March whereas Chaetognaths were rarely observed in the entire study period. Species diversity exhibited a mixed trend with the highest values (0.776) of dominance observed in spring (March). The results of Canonical Corresponden

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
PREPARATION AND STUDY OF THE PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF SOME COMPLEXES WITH SCHIFF BASE LIGAND FOR CEFDINIR DERIVATIVE : PREPARATION AND STUDY OF THE PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF SOME COMPLEXES WITH SCHIFF BASE LIGAND FOR CEFDINIR DERIVATIVE
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ABSTRACT

Metal (II) complexes of Co, Ni, Cu and Zn with cefdinir C14H13N5O5S2 derivative (L) were synthesized and identification by elemental analysis CHNS Uv-Vis, FTIR, TGA, metal analysis AA, magnetic susceptibility and conduct metric measurement. by analysis the ligand behaves as a bidentate. For the cobalt complex, Tetrahedral geometry shape was suggested, while other complexes that have nickel, copper and zinc ions were proposed as octahedral geometry shape. The experimental method was studied for prevention of corrosion carbon steel in 3.5% NaCl by using a novel Cefdinir derivations drugs. The results showed that metal complex was a strong corro

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Women's Rape in Iraq between Legislation and Social Norms: A Critical Discourse Analysis
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Recently, women's rape has been a pervasive problem in the Iraqi society. Thus, it has become necessary to consider the role of language and its influence on the common beliefs and opinions about rape in the Iraqi society. Thus, taking into consideration the critical role of language and its impact on the perception of human reality and the social development based on people's beliefs and principles of life has become highly indispensable. Therefore. The aim of this article is to address this problem critically from legislation and social norms in NGOs' reports (2015; 2019) with reference to some provisions from the Iraqi Panel Code (1969; 2010). Therefore, the researchers examine the discursive strategies and ideological viewpoints in t

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