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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications (ijnaa)
Applying a suitable approximate-simulation technique of an epidemic model with random parameters
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Because the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulat

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 27 2024
Journal Name
Mathematical Modelling Of Engineering Problems
Dynamics of a Fractional-Order Prey-Predator Model with Fear Effect and Harvesting
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2024
Journal Name
Malaysian Journal Of Mathematical Sciences
Dynamics of a Social Model for Marriage and Divorce Relationship with Fear Effect
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The objective of this article is to delve into the intricate dynamics of marriage relationships, exploring the impact of emotions such as fear, love, financial considerations and likability. In our investigation, we adopt a perspective that acknowledges the nonlinear nature of interactions among individuals. Diverging from certain prior studies, we propose that the fear element within the context of marriage is not a singular, isolated factor but rather a manifestation resulting from the amalgamation of numerous social issues. This, in turn, contributes to the emergence of strained and unsuccessful relationships. Unlike conventional approaches, we extensively examine the conditions essential for the existence of all socially signifi

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 22 2021
Journal Name
Expert Systems
Hybrid intelligent technology for plant health using the fusion of evolutionary optimization and deep neural networks
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Environmental Pollution
Prediction of sediment heavy metal at the Australian Bays using newly developed hybrid artificial intelligence models
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of business incubators represented by the banking system in financing small and medium enterprises in Iraq for the period 2000-2010
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The process of transformation from the central economy to a free economy requires restructuring the economy according to a new economic philosophy that relies on activating the role of private economic activity in which private and medium-sized institutions occupy an essential axis for their active role in the economies of all countries, especially those countries that have directed towards the market mechanism and sector leadership. The special process of economic development and the role that commercial banks can play in advancing the financing of these projects by establishing specialized business incubators for financing.

What encouraged countries to pay attention to these institutions is the ease of

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Using the Generative Learning Model on the Achievement of First-Grade Intermediate Students of Chemical Concepts in Science
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effect of using a model of generative learning in the achievement of first-middle students of chemical concepts in science. The researcher adopted the null hypothesis, which is there is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the mean scores of the experimental group who study using the generative learning model and the average scores of the control group who study using the traditional method in the chemical concepts achievement test. The research consisted of (200) students of the first intermediate at Al-Farqadin Intermediate School for Boys affiliated with the Directorate of General Education in Baghdad Governorate / Al-Karkh 3 wit

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Publication Date
Mon May 11 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating Lipoxygenase and Gamma-glutamyl Transferase Activities in Sera of Colon Cancer Patients with Partial Purification of Lipoxygenase
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            Colon cancer is an abnormal growth of cells that occurs in the large intestine. Sometimes growth remains restricted for a relatively long time before it becomes a malignant tumor and then spreads through the intestinal wall to the lymph nodes and other parts of the body. The study aims to estimate the effectiveness and partial purification of lipoxygenase (LOX) enzyme and measure gamma-glutamyle transferase (GGT) activity in serum patients of colon cancer in Baghdad. The study included (80) case male patients with colon cancer with (50) samples of apparently healthy males (control) as comparison group. The result displayed a noteworthy increase in lipoxygenase effectivene

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Econometrics analysis of the impact of external shocks on foreign direct investment in Iraq for the period (1995-2016)
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The external shocks are one of the phenomena that the Iraqi economy is exposed to over a period of time. It is referred to as changes and events that come from outside the economic system and extends to many economic variables. However, foreign direct investment may be severely affected due to the extreme sensitivity to changes and local and international developments. This type of trauma and its characteristics to help manage and cope with external shocks, and in order to avoid the standard problems experienced by some models of simple linear regression, multi-linear regression models were used with variables Scientific and other dummy variables .

        The study foun

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 14 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The genealogy of rough discourse in contemporary theatre (YES, GODOT play) as a model
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The research is exposed to the concept of rough discourse in contemporary theater with a critical reading that takes the genealogical work as a starting point in deconstructing the references of rough discourse and pursuing its paths in the civilization and cultural framework and how it identifies aesthetically within the theatrical field and the extents of its procedural treatments in order to reveal it and clarify its limits and representations, as the research included the first chapter. (methodological framework), the second chapter (theoretical framework), which included two sections, the first took place under the title (rough dramatization), while the second topic took place under the title (rough drama), and the second chapter re

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