Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
The construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we find that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which is reflected at the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given and the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an overlap betwee
... Show MoreThe research dealt with a study of economic diversification indicators in Iraq and an indication of the extent to which economic diversification events are desirable in its sectors because desirable diversification events are truly the best means of targeting a fair distribution of income. The research included studying the experiences of selected countries for Norway and Chile, and studying economic indicators and policies for each of them in order to benefit From these two experiences, the research has concluded that the Iraqi economy suffers from a large concentration of the oil sector, which made the Iraqi economy unilateral in which oil represents 90% according to the Herfindel-Hirschman Index, either for Norway and Chile, i
... Show MoreThe novel has recently received great attention from readers and before them writers, due to the role it is playing, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is art or creativity, there must be a criticism of its own, and this criticism is certainly no less important than its owner, so we find There are critics who have their distinguished literary position in following up the narrative development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements, including Professor Fadel Thamer, and whoever wants to approach an element of the novel as an explorer, he must stand on the visions of this critic about it, and this is what made us take the element (personality) Tracking the most important opinions of the critic
... Show MoreNaber and toning in the modern Arab poetry Mahmoud Darwish, a model
Novel has recently received the attention of readers and writers greatly, because of the role they play, and this indicates an important rule, which is whenever there is an art or creativity, there must be a respective criticism, and this criticism is certainly not less important than the author. So there are critics who have a prestigious literary position in the follow-up story development, and trying to describe the transformation of its elements. One of these critics is professor Fadhel Thamer, and who wants to approach one of the elements of the novel exploring, must stop on the visions of this critic about it , and that’s why we take the (character) element following the most important opinions of this critic about
... Show MoreChaotic features of nuclear energy spectrum in 68Ge nucleus are investigated by nuclear shell model. The energies are calculated through doing shell model calculations employing the OXBASH computer code with effective interaction of F5PVH. The 68Ge nucleus is supposed to have an inert core of 56Ni with 12 nucleons (4 protons and 8 neutrons) move in the f5p-model space ( and ). The nuclear level density of considered classes of states is seen to have a Gaussian form, which is in accord with the prediction of other theoretical studies. The statistical fluctuations of the energy spectrum (the level spacing P(s) and the Dyson-Mehta (or statistics) are well described by the Gaussian orthogonal ens
... Show MoreIndicators of government debt is of extreme importanse in economic activity through knowledge of the economic impact of government debt, if the phenomenon is accepted or prepared to dangerous stage by stage, and there fore it can Through these indicators to measure the degree of indebtedness in relation to the economic activity of the Government on the one hand, the governments ability to repay the other hand.
Due to this it inferred that the degree of indebtedness in Iraq specificratio has exceed 60% during the period 1990 – 2002 ntejh lack of political and economic stability of the government, which led to the governments inability to repay the ma
... Show MoreThis paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) for optimizing the maximum likelihood function ln(L(phi(1),theta(1)))of the mixed model ARMA(1,1). The presented hybrid genetic algorithm (hGA) couples two processes: the canonical genetic algorithm (cGA) composed of three main steps: selection, local recombination and mutation, with the local search algorithm represent by steepest descent algorithm (sDA) which is defined by three basic parameters: frequency, probability, and number of local search iterations. The experimental design is based on simulating the cGA, hGA, and sDA algorithms with different values of model parameters, and sample size(n). The study contains comparison among these algorithms depending on MSE value. One can conc
... Show MoreThe hydrological process has a dynamic nature characterised by randomness and complex phenomena. The application of machine learning (ML) models in forecasting river flow has grown rapidly. This is owing to their capacity to simulate the complex phenomena associated with hydrological and environmental processes. Four different ML models were developed for river flow forecasting located in semiarid region, Iraq. The effectiveness of data division influence on the ML models process was investigated. Three data division modeling scenarios were inspected including 70%–30%, 80%–20, and 90%–10%. Several statistical indicators are computed to verify the performance of the models. The results revealed the potential of the hybridized s
... Show More
Purpose: Providing practical knowledge of the requirements of a detailed feasibility study for selecting the investment project.
Findings: Directing the private sector towards investing in productive projects - the pre-cast reinforced concrete project - as it achieves a financial return as well as providing Providing foreign currencies by reducing imports and exploiting available natural resources
Practical implications: The importance of a detailed feasibility study to determining whether the project can be implemented or not.
The precast concrete method is one of the best modern c
... Show More