Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
That Iraq's dependence on the revenues of the oil product in financing its development programs and growth rates , Making the economy affected by external forces represented by fluctuations in crude oil prices in the global market, Which is directly reflected on the performance and efficiency of the Iraqi economy.
The study adopted its objectives to analyze the time series for the period (1988 - 2015) through the use of standard and statistical methods, Four standard models were estimated to reach those targets, Where the results of the stability test showed instability of most variables at their original level, But to achieve stability when taking the first differences, While the result
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we found that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which reflected the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given to the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an o
... Show MoreThe construction of development is required to develop various economic sectors with the necessity to meet the various requirement of both individuals and institutions , or through the import process , which must be commensurate with the needs of the market and the economy and development. But in fact , we find that the process of import in Iraq after 2003 took a turn dangerous excesses on limits of philosophy and objectives of the import , which is reflected at the level of national production as well as the policy of dumping and given and the lack of matching a lot of goods and materials imported for Standards and Measures of quality and stands behind it causes many of them exposure to the market and weak sectors with an overlap betwee
... Show MoreThis study observed the genetic diversity and relationships among 4 species belonging to genus Gladiolus L. , by using the Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique , the study includes extraction of genomic DNA from the dray leaves by using commercial kit . 4 random primers used the produced of many polymorphic bands among the 4 species , it was also possible to fined the DNA fingerprint of all studied species.Through the appearance of a number of bands that were unique to each species.Genetic distances ranged from 0.10 to 0.86, and used cluster analysis were performed to construct dendrogram.Cluster analysis grouped the 4 species Into tow main clusters depending on their ancestor and their morphological
... Show MoreIntroduction: The use of screw-retained hybrid arch bars (HABs) is a relatively recent development in the treatment of mandibular fractures. The purpose of this study is to compare the clinical outcome between HAB and the conventional Erich arch bar (EAB) in the closed treatment of mandibular fractures. Materials and methods: This study included 18 patients who were treated for mandibular fractures with maxillomandibular fixation (MMF), patients were randomly assigned into a control group (n = 10) in which EAB was used and study group (n = 8) in which HAB was used. The outcome variables were time required for application and removal, gingival inflammation scores, postoperative complications, and incidence of wire-stick injury or gloves perf
... Show MoreThis thesis aims to show the effects of the development of the traditional manual system of the tax accounting process to the electronic system by the activation of the tax identification numbers (TINs) mechanism. The impact of this development is facilitating the tax accounting process, tax fraudand thus increasing the tax outcome.To prove the research hypothesis, an electronic system was designed based on income tax report, estimation note of individuals, in additional to using Adobe Dreamweaver application to write PHP, HTML, Javascript, and CSS web languages to implement the proposed system. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is; not enough the communication methods between the Genera
... Show MoreMunicipal solid waste is one of the most important environmental problems in the world and is an important source of environmental pollution and contributes significantly to the pollution of the basic environmental elements of soil, water and air. The management of municipal waste in general is a process of monitoring, collection, treatment or recycling if possible or disposal of waste. This term is used for waste produced by some human activities. States provide this process to mitigate the negative effects of waste on the environment, health and appearance of the city. It is possible to find solutions to the problem of solid waste and make it an important source of income and contribute to securing employment oppor
... Show MoreChaotic features of nuclear energy spectrum in 68Ge nucleus are investigated by nuclear shell model. The energies are calculated through doing shell model calculations employing the OXBASH computer code with effective interaction of F5PVH. The 68Ge nucleus is supposed to have an inert core of 56Ni with 12 nucleons (4 protons and 8 neutrons) move in the f5p-model space ( and ). The nuclear level density of considered classes of states is seen to have a Gaussian form, which is in accord with the prediction of other theoretical studies. The statistical fluctuations of the energy spectrum (the level spacing P(s) and the Dyson-Mehta (or statistics) are well described by the Gaussian orthogonal ens
... Show MoreThe research dealt with a study of economic diversification indicators in Iraq and an indication of the extent to which economic diversification events are desirable in its sectors because desirable diversification events are truly the best means of targeting a fair distribution of income. The research included studying the experiences of selected countries for Norway and Chile, and studying economic indicators and policies for each of them in order to benefit From these two experiences, the research has concluded that the Iraqi economy suffers from a large concentration of the oil sector, which made the Iraqi economy unilateral in which oil represents 90% according to the Herfindel-Hirschman Index, either for Norway and Chile, i
... Show MoreBackground: Glass ionomer restorations are widely employed in the field of pediatric dentistry. There is a constant demand for a durable restoration that remains functional until exfoliation. This study aimed to measure and compare the effect of a novel coating material (EQUIA Forte Coat) on the microleakage of glass hybrid restoration (EQUIA Forte HT) in primary teeth. Material and method: Thirty cavitated (class-II) primary molars were allocated randomly into two groups based on the coat application; uncoated (control) and coated group (experimental). Cavities were prepared by the use of a ceramic bur (CeraBur) and restored with EQUIA Forte HT with or without applying a protective coat (EQUIA Forte Coat). Samples went through the therm
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