Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting from the application of these models to the return series for the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar against US dollar (IQ/USD) for the period from (21/7/2011) until (21/07/2021) and then using these estimations in the process of generating data. The identifications were made using the (Ljung-Box and ARCH tests) with (1000 replicates) and the result showed the presence of states (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and this states increased with increasing the sample size and the best result of NAGARCH with Normal distribution and the best result of APGARCH with General error distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method used to estimate the parameters of the models and the best result with largest sample size (2000) , in the diagnostic checking phase the result showed the ability of the models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) to process the states of (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and the best result with (APGARCH) model when the error distributed (General error distribution)
Time series is an important statistical method adopted in the analysis of phenomena, practices, and events in all areas during specific time periods and predict future values contribute to give a rough estimate of the status of the study, so the study aimed to adopt the ARIMA models to forecast the volume of cargo handled and achieved in four ports (Umm Qasr Port, Khor Al Zubair Port, Abu Flus Port, and Maqal Port(, Monthly data on the volume of cargo handled for the years (2006-2018) were collected (156) observations. The study found that the most efficient model is ARIMA (1,1,1).
The volume of go
... Show MoreLinear programming currently occupies a prominent position in various fields and has wide applications, as its importance lies in being a means of studying the behavior of a large number of systems as well. It is also the simplest and easiest type of models that can be created to address industrial, commercial, military and other dilemmas. Through which to obtain the optimal quantitative value. In this research, we dealt with the post optimality solution, or what is known as sensitivity analysis, using the principle of shadow prices. The scientific solution to any problem is not a complete solution once the optimal solution is reached. Any change in the values of the model constants or what is known as the inputs of the model that will chan
... Show MoreThe rotor dynamics generally deals with vibration of rotating structures. For designing rotors of a high speeds, basically its important to take into account the rotor dynamics characteristics. The modeling features for rotor and bearings support flexibility are described in this paper, by taking these characteristics of rotor dynamics features into standard Finite Element Approach (FEA) model. Transient and harmonic analysis procedures have been found by ANSYS, the idea has been presented to deal with critical speed calculation. This papers shows how elements BEAM188 and COMBI214 are used to represent the shaft and bearings, the dynamic stiffness and damping coefficients of journal bearings as a matrices have been found
... Show MoreBackground: DVT is a very common problem with a very serious complications like pulmonary embolism (PE) which carries a high mortality,and many other chronic and annoying complications ( like chronic DVT, post-phlebitic syndrome, and chronic venous insufficiency) ,and it has many risk factors that affect its course, severity ,and response to treatment. Objectives: Most of those risk factors are modifiable, and a better understanding of the relationships between them can be beneficial for better assessment for liable pfatients , prevention of disease, and the effectiveness of our treatment modalities. Male to female ratio was nearly equal , so we didn’t discuss the gender among other risk factors. Type of the study:A cross- secti
The research aims to identify the factors affecting the customer and their impact desire for market share in a competitive market National Insurance Company, where he was after the tremendous developments that have taken place in the insurance sector, crowded markets, private companies and the intensified competition among those companies on one side and public sector companies, including national insurance company on the other hand, increased attention and study in a big way the customer and the factors influencing the desire. As the national insurance company ascertains its targets once the sale of insurance documents only, but by knowing the tendencies and aspirations of current and prospective customers a way that helps to strengthen
... Show MoreEnglish is spoken by its native speakers in two different forms. Reduced form which marks the colloquial and rapid speech so that it is easily produced and a citation or unreduced form which is a characteristic of careful, emphasized and slow speech.
This paper investigates Iraqi EFL university students’ production of the two forms mentioned above. The sample chosen includes twenty fourth year students, of which ten are males and the other ten are females from the Department of English of the College of Languages of the University of Duhok in Kurdistan Region of Iraq in the academic year 2020-2021. The material tested is six connective words which represent the commonest ones in every-day co
... Show MoreProsthetic hands are compensatory devices for the hand amputees as a result of injury, various accidents or birth deformities, types of prosthetic hand vary depending on the mechanism they operate and how they perform. There are common types in use that are characterized by their complex mechanisms, which are difficult for the amputee to use or exclude use because of their high cost, therefore the aim of this research is to design an artificial hand that is suitable in terms of simplicity of use and low cost and similar to a natural hand with regard to dimensions and shape that operated in the mechanism of links. This research involves Stress and strain analysis of the prosthetic hand and its fingers that modelled from (Petg CR)
... Show MoreOver the years, the prediction of penetration rate (ROP) has played a key rule for drilling engineers due it is effect on the optimization of various parameters that related to substantial cost saving. Many researchers have continually worked to optimize penetration rate. A major issue with most published studies is that there is no simple model currently available to guarantee the ROP prediction.
The main objective of this study is to further improve ROP prediction using two predictive methods, multiple regression analysis (MRA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). A field case in SE Iraq was conducted to predict the ROP from a large number of parame
Incremental sheet forming (ISF) is a metal forming technology in which small incremental deformations determine the final shape. The sheet is deformed by a hemispherical tool that follows the required shape contour to deform the sheet into the desired geometry. In this study, single point incremental sheet forming (SPIF) has been implemented in dentistry to manufacture a denture plate using two types of stainless steel, 304 and 316L, with an initial thickness of 0.5mm and 0.8mm, respectively. Stainless steel was selected due to its biocompatibility and reasonable cost. A three-dimensional (3D) analysis procedure was conducted to evaluate the manufactured part's geometrical accuracy and thickness distribution. The obtained results confirm
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