Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
الخلاصة
تعد الانتخابات بمثابة الطريق المؤدي إلى الديمقراطية كونها النمط الأكثر شيوعاً لمشاركة المواطنين في الحياة السياسية للبلدان واختيار ممثليهم في المجالس التشريعية، حيث أن مطلب إجراء انتخابات حرة ونزيهة لم يعد مطلباً داخلياً فحسب بل مطلباً دولياً يصرّ المجتمع الدولي على الوفاء به وهذا يلقي على عاتق كل دولة أن تضع من الضمانات ما يكفل ممارسة هذه الانتخابات ب
... Show MoreThe issues of journalists and media employees in general and photojournalists in particular have become important issues, especially as those issues are closely linked to the success or failure of the media process.
This research deals with (the issues of Iraqi photojournalists working in local and foreign institutions in Iraq - a case study in 2012), because of the ambiguity in identifying those issues, which focused on the issues of this research.
This was done through the research community of members of the Association of Iraqi photojournalists in Baghdad exclusively of (64) photographers and television photographers to identify the problems encountered in their work
... Show MoreThe research aims to shed light on the possibility of measuring the intellectual capital in the Iraqi insurance company using accounting models, as well as disclosing it in the financial statements of the company, where human capital was measured using the present value factor model for discounted future revenues and the intellectual value-added factor model for measuring structural capital It was also disclosed in the financial statements based on the theory of stakeholders. The research problem lies in the fact that the Iraqi insurance company does not carry out the process of measuring and disclosing the intellectual capital while it is considered an important source for the company’s progress in the labor market recently. T
... Show MoreThe transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m
... Show MoreThe current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta
... Show MoreThe mechanical function of the heart is governed by the contractile properties of the cells, the mechanical stiffness of the muscle and connective tissue, and pressure and volume loading conditions on the organ. Although ventricular pressures and volumes are available for assessing the global pumping performance of the heart, the distribution of stress and strain that characterize regional ventricular function and change in cell biology must be known. The mechanics of the equatorial region of the left, ventricle was modeled by a thick-walled cylinder. The tangential (circumferential) stress, radial stress and longitudinal stress in the wall of the heart have been calculated. There are also significant torsional shear in the wall during b
... Show MoreThe importance of this study stems from the importance of preserving the environment and creating a clean sustainable environment from waste and emissions and all the operations of industrial companies in general and cement companies in particular by activating sustainability accounting standards. The research aims to identify and diagnose deviations in violation of sustainability standards by employing the non-renewable resources standard (NR0401) For the construction industries to create a sustainable audit environment, the deductive approach was followed in the theoretical side and the inductive and descriptive approach to the practical side. The most important results of the research were the possibility of applying sustainab
... Show MoreThe security of information represent the available protection of information and its component and guaranty the its safety and confidentiality. The absent or lack or stop of security of information and without maximum benefit may lead to lose confidence and make it burden on the company. So we must protect the company and information from the damages which may lead to the frailer of performance and loses of the company and its workers. So the security of information considered one of the potential and controlling basis to protect individuals and companies from the damages. To insure the security and confidentiality of information there are delicate, proper and trusted ways, like FIRE WALL, PASS WORD, SYPHAR
... Show MoreThe enhancement of heat exchanger performance was investigated using dimpled tubes tested at different Reynolds numbers, in the present work four types of dimpled tubes with a specified configuration manufactured, tested and then compared performance with the smooth tube and other passive techniques performance. Two dimpled arrangements along the tube were investigated, these are inline and staggered at constant pitch ratio X/d=4, the test results showed that Nusselts number (heat transfer) of the staggered array is higher than the inline array by 13%. The effect of different depths of the dimple (14.5 mm and 18.5 mm) has been also investigated; a tube with large dimple diameter enhanced the Nusselts number by about 25% for the ran
... Show MoreThe speech recognition system has been widely used by many researchers using different
methods to fulfill a fast and accurate system. Speech signal recognition is a typical
classification problem, which generally includes two main parts: feature extraction and
classification. In this paper, a new approach to achieve speech recognition task is proposed by
using transformation techniques for feature extraction methods; namely, slantlet transform
(SLT), discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) type Daubechies Db1 and Db4. Furthermore, a
modified artificial neural network (ANN) with dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm is
developed to train a speech recognition system to be used for classification and recognition
purposes. T