Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Abstract
This paper presents an intelligent model reference adaptive control (MRAC) utilizing a self-recurrent wavelet neural network (SRWNN) to control nonlinear systems. The proposed SRWNN is an improved version of a previously reported wavelet neural network (WNN). In particular, this improvement was achieved by adopting two modifications to the original WNN structure. These modifications include, firstly, the utilization of a specific initialization phase to improve the convergence to the optimal weight values, and secondly, the inclusion of self-feedback weights to the wavelons of the wavelet layer. Furthermore, an on-line training procedure was proposed to enhance the control per
... Show MoreAbstract
The research aimed to test the relationship between the size of investment allocations in the agricultural sector in Iraq and their determinants using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method compared to the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach. The time series data for the period from 1990 to 2021 was utilized. The analysis showed that the estimates obtained using the ECM were more accurate and significant than those obtained using the OLS method. Johansen's test indicated the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the size of investment allocations and their determinants. The results of th
... Show MoreThis paper aims to propose a hybrid approach of two powerful methods, namely the differential transform and finite difference methods, to obtain the solution of the coupled Whitham-Broer-Kaup-Like equations which arises in shallow-water wave theory. The capability of the method to such problems is verified by taking different parameters and initial conditions. The numerical simulations are depicted in 2D and 3D graphs. It is shown that the used approach returns accurate solutions for this type of problems in comparison with the analytic ones.
At the beginning of the nineties increased responsibility of the auditor to the community as the demand for auditing the environmental performance for the economic units in addition to audit the financial performance. With the aim of preserving the environment and reducing the damagse as aresult of the negative effects of the activities of these units.
The researh deal with two sides the first one identifies the theoretical framework of the concept of environmental audits, requirements, methods, types of procedures, and duties of the auditor in conducting environmental audits. It also deals with the concept of the enviro
... Show MoreAbstract: Stars whose initial masses are between (0.89 - 8.0) M☉ go through an Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phase at the end of their life. Which have been evolved from the main sequence phase through Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). The calculations were done by adopted Synthetic Model showed the following results: 1- Mass loss on the AGB phase consists of two phases for period (P <500) days and for (P>500) days; 2- the mass loss rate exponentially increases with the pulsation periods; 3- The expansion velocity VAGB for our stars are calculated according to the three assumptions; 4- the terminal velocity depends on several factors likes metallicity and luminosity. The calculations indicated that a super wind phase (S.W) developed on the A
... Show MoreTo damp the low-frequency oscillations which occurred due to the disturbances in the electrical power system, the generators are equipped with Power System Stabilizer (PSS) that provide supplementary feedback stabilizing signals. The low-frequency oscillations in power system are classified as local mode oscillations, intra-area mode oscillation, and interarea mode oscillations. Double input multiband Power system stabilizers (PSSs) were used to damp out low-frequency oscillations in power system. Among dual-input PSSs, PSS4B offers superior transient performance. Power system simulator for engineering (PSS/E) software was adopted to test and evaluate the dynamic performance of PSS4B model on Iraqi national grid. The res
... Show MoreTo damp the low-frequency oscillations which occurred due to the disturbances in the electrical power system, the generators are equipped with Power System Stabilizer (PSS) that provide supplementary feedback stabilizing signals. The low-frequency oscillations in power system are classified as local mode oscillations, intra-area mode oscillation, and interarea mode oscillations. Double input multiband Power system stabilizers (PSSs) were used to damp out low-frequency oscillations in power system. Among dual-input PSSs, PSS4B offers superior transient performance. Power system simulator for engineering (PSS/E) software was adopted to test and evaluate the dynamic performance of PSS4B model on Iraqi national grid. The results showed
... Show MoreThis study aims to assess the accuracy of digital elevation model (DEM) created with utilization of handheld Global Positioning System (GPS) and comparing with Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), version 2. It is known that the quality of the DEM is affected by both of accuracy of elevation at each pixel (absolute accuracy) and accuracy of presented morphology (relative accuracy). The University of Baghdad, Al Jadriya campus was selected as a study area to create and analysis the resulting DEM. Additionally, Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to visualize, analyses and interpolate GPS track points (elevation data) of the study area. In this
... Show MoreA two time step stochastic multi-variables multi-sites hydrological data forecasting model was developed and verified using a case study. The philosophy of this model is to use the cross-variables correlations, cross-sites correlations and the two steps time lag correlations simultaneously, for estimating the parameters of the model which then are modified using the mutation process of the genetic algorithm optimization model. The objective function that to be minimized is the Akiake test value. The case study is of four variables and three sites. The variables are the monthly air temperature, humidity, precipitation, and evaporation; the sites are Sulaimania, Chwarta, and Penjwin, which are located north Iraq. The model performance was
... Show More