Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Ping message focused on highlighting the fact commodity trading in Iraq, and increased exposure to world merchandise trade imbalance, which dominate Iraq's foreign trade major commodity is oil, and therefore the inability of Iraq to control financial revenue as a result of the fluctuations in the international market, the shortage of commodity products will lead inevitably to the weakness in the ability of the local market to meet the internal demand and due to the lack of flexible production machine For agricultural, industrial and economic sectors are responding to changes in the domestic or external demand which will open the door to merchandise imports to invade these markets, since the adoption of the Iraq oil exports,
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The project of balad's major sewerage system is one of the biggest projects who is still in progress in salahulddin province provincial - development plan that was approved in 2013 . This project works in two parts ; the 1st is installing the sewerage networks (both of heavy sewerage & rain sewerage) and the 2nd is installing the life – off units (for heavy sewerage & rain sewerage , as well) . the directorate of salahuiddin is aiming that at end of construction it will be able to provide services for four residential quarters , one of the main challenges that project's management experience is how to achieve thes
... Show MoreSeasonal variations of the species composition and abundance of Cladocera were studied in two stations at the end of the Tigris River and one station at the confluence of the Tigris with Euphrates area, at the beginning of the Shatt Al-Arab River in Al-Qurnah North of Basrah Province, from October 2015 to August 2016. Samples of zooplankton were collected by plankton net 100-µm. mesh size. The population density of Cladocera ranged between 1 Ind /m³ during summer and 211 Ind./m³ during winter at station 1 (Al-Jewaber Bridge). A total of 16 species of Cladocera belonging to 12 genera were recorded in the study. The average density of Cladocera ranged from 23.2 ind./m3 at Station 2 (Hamayon Bridge) to 53.7 Ind./m3
... Show MoreThe objective of this research is to determine the relationship between the performance evaluation process and the training programs for the employees, to identify the extent of the organization's commitment to perform the performance evaluation process for its employees and to use the results of this process in determining the appropriate training programs. Performance evaluation, functional analysis, evaluation method used, dependent variable (training programs) and its dimensions, type of programs, program objectives, program curriculum, And the application of the field research methodology and the questionnaire, which included 146 individuals to know their views and analyz
... Show MoreNowhere is American author Shirley Jackson’s (1916-1965) social and political criticism is so intense than it is in her seminal fictional masterpiece “The Lottery”. Jackson severely denounces injustice through her emphasis on a bizarre social custom in a small American town, in which the winner of the lottery, untraditionally, receives a fatal prize. The readers are left puzzled at the end of the story as Tessie Hutchinson, the unfortunate female winner, is stoned to death by the members of her community, and even by her family. This study aims at investigating the author’s social and political implications that lie behind the story, taking into account the historical era in which the story was published (the aftermath of th
... Show MoreIt is known that the science of jurisprudence is one of the most important Islamic sciences. Because it is a science that regulates the life of man and society and provides them with happiness in this world and the hereafter, if they follow its provisions with precision and care. The importance of this topic lies in the fact that it represents an urgent social need to show the compatibility of tribal customs with social jurisprudence. The job of the jurists was and still is to clarify the legal rulings according to what the Holy Qur’an has shown, and what has been reported on the authority of the Great Prophet (6) and the pure imams (:).It is no secret to everyone that the Islamic civilization is (the civilization of jurisprudence), just
... Show MoreThere is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo
... Show MoreEach phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Ho
... Show MoreThe research aims to shed light on banking liberalization and explain its impact on attracting customers, especially since Iraq adopted this policy after (2003) due to the changes that occurred, as the Central Bank of Iraq granted flexibility to banks in setting the interest rate on deposits and loans as well as allowing the entry of foreign banks in the local environment. The research relied on the analytical method for the dimensions of banking liberalization represented by (liberating interest rates, liberating credit, legal reserve requirements, entering foreign banks, privatization) as well as the factors affecting the attraction of customers, and a number of Iraqi banks listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a
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