The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab
... Show MoreWhen a person found himself in a life he did not understand، he tried to create in his imagination powers and gods that tried to protect him from his ignorance of that world، and when he was reassured internally through those fantasy creatures when he made them the greatest protector and the source of his existence and his being، he began to weave myths and myths until he created his reality that he did not have. Any hint، and when we go back to the mechanism of embodying those myths، myths and fantasias in which he lived، we will find that the first building blocks were written on the walls of the caves in which he lived during that period. And when his thought developed and thus his expressive means developed، he began to embody
... Show MoreMunicipal wastewater sources are becoming increasingly important for reuse, for irrigation purposes, so they must be treated to meet environmentally friendly local or global standards. The aim of this study is to establish, calibrate, and validate a model for predicting chemical oxygen demand for the pilot plant of mobile biofilm reactors operating from municipal wastewater in Maaymyrh located in Hilla city Using the approach of dimensional analysis. The approach of Buckingham's theorem was used to derive a model of dimensional analysis design for the forecast of (COD) in the pilot plant. The effluent concentration (COD) It has been derived as a result of the influential concentration of (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), volume of pilot plant
... Show MoreThis study focuses on studying an oscillation of a second-order delay differential equation. Start work, the equation is introduced here with adequate provisions. All the previous is braced by theorems and examplesthat interpret the applicability and the firmness of the acquired provisions
Use of lower squares and restricted boxes
In the estimation of the first-order self-regression parameter
AR (1) (simulation study)
Recurrent strokes can be devastating, often resulting in severe disability or death. However, nearly 90% of the causes of recurrent stroke are modifiable, which means recurrent strokes can be averted by controlling risk factors, which are mainly behavioral and metabolic in nature. Thus, it shows that from the previous works that recurrent stroke prediction model could help in minimizing the possibility of getting recurrent stroke. Previous works have shown promising results in predicting first-time stroke cases with machine learning approaches. However, there are limited works on recurrent stroke prediction using machine learning methods. Hence, this work is proposed to perform an empirical analysis and to investigate machine learning al
... Show MoreIn this paper, a new equivalent lumped parameter model is proposed for describing the vibration of beams under the moving load effect. Also, an analytical formula for calculating such vibration for low-speed loads is presented. Furthermore, a MATLAB/Simulink model is introduced to give a simple and accurate solution that can be used to design beams subjected to any moving loads, i.e., loads of any magnitude and speed. In general, the proposed Simulink model can be used much easier than the alternative FEM software, which is usually used in designing such beams. The obtained results from the analytical formula and the proposed Simulink model were compared with those obtained from Ansys R19.0, and very good agreement has been shown. I
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In this research provide theoretical aspects of one of the most important statistical distributions which it is Lomax, which has many applications in several areas, set of estimation methods was used(MLE,LSE,GWPM) and compare with (RRE) estimation method ,in order to find out best estimation method set of simulation experiment (36) with many replications in order to get mean square error and used it to make compare , simulation experiment contrast with (estimation method, sample size ,value of location and shape parameter) results show that estimation method effected by simulation experiment factors and ability of using other estimation methods such as(Shrinkage, jackknif
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