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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 25 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Optics
Integrated gallium phosphide-waveguide polarization rotator based on rotating a horizontal slot by 45 degree for 700 nm wavelength
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Abstract<p>Polarization manipulation elements operating at visible wavelengths represent a critical component of quantum communication sub-systems, equivalent to their telecom wavelength counterparts. The method proposed involves rotating the optic axis of the polarized input light by an angle of 45 degree, thereby converting the fundamental transverse electric (TE<sub>0</sub>) mode to the fundamental transverse magnetic (TM<sub>0</sub>) mode. This paper outlines an integrated gallium phosphide-waveguide polarization rotator, which relies on the rotation of a horizontal slot by 45 degree at a wavelength of 700 nm. This will ultimately lead to the conception of a mode hybridization phenomeno</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological contents As Deduced From Al Namel Surah, Dialogue between Suliman and Hodhod bird & Their Application In School Counseling
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The current research aimed at deducing the psychological contents of Suliman dialogue with the Hodhod and statement applications in school counseling. The researcher followed the Islamic approach in the search, which deals with the study of events, phenomena and practices through a broad understanding of Islamic principles and limitations associated with the general framework of Islam. In addition to the deductive approach is derived from a sub-rule is a general provision.
The research revealed many of the psychological contents, including: the importance of continuing care counselor psychological learners, and follow-up field to their problems, conditions, listen good horseshoe to defend himself, clarify the motives of his ac

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 23 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Assessment of long distance chasing photometer (NAG-ADF-300-2) by estimating the drug atenolol with ammonium molybdate via continuous flow injection analysis: drug atenolol a
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     Atenolol was used with ammonium molybdate to prove the efficiency, reliability and repeatability of the long distance chasing photometer (NAG-ADF-300-2) using continuous flow injection analysis. The method is based on reaction between atenolol and ammonium molybdate in an aqueous medium to obtain a dark brown precipitate. Optimum parameters was studied to increase the sensitivity for developed method. A linear range for calibration graph was 0.1-3.5 mmol/L for cell A and 0.3-3.5 mmol/L for cell B, and LOD 133.1680 ng/100 µL and 532.6720 ng/100 µL for cell A and cell B respectively with correlation coefficient (r) 0.9910 for cell A and 0.9901 for cell B, RSD% was lower than 1%, (n=8) for the determination of ate

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
دراسة حصانة مقدرات بيز التجريبي (الخبري) Empirical Bayse لنماذج الانحدار الذاتي من الدرجة الأولى
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  Estimation stage is one of most important in process of selecting and identification for fit model, this model gives a best results if the good methods of estimation are depended on, one of those methods is Bayes method for estimation the parameters, it puts an assumption that parameter have a distribution.

 This paper studies the robustness of estimators of empirical Bayes to know the properties of those estimators.

    

 

 

 

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison of the Semiparametric Estimators model smoothing methods different using
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In this paper, we made comparison among different parametric ,nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for partial linear regression model users parametric represented by ols and nonparametric methods represented by cubic smoothing spline estimator and Nadaraya-Watson estimator, we study three nonparametric regression models and samples sizes  n=40,60,100,variances used σ2=0.5,1,1.5 the results  for the first model show that N.W estimator for partial linear regression model(PLM) is the best followed the cubic smoothing spline estimator for (PLM),and the results of the second and the third model show that the best estimator is C.S.S.followed by N.W estimator for (PLM) ,the

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of the Biz method and classical methods in estimating the parameters of the binary logistic regression model
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Abstract

          Binary logistic regression model used in data classification and it is the strongest most flexible tool in study cases variable response binary when compared to linear regression. In this research, some classic methods were used to estimate parameters binary logistic regression model, included the maximum likelihood method, minimum chi-square method, weighted least squares, with bayes estimation , to choose the best method of estimation by default values to estimate parameters according two different models of general linear regression models ,and different s

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Creating a Conductive Surface of the PMMA by Laser Cladding with DWCNT and MWCNTS
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This work studied the electrical and thermal surface conductivity enhancement of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) clouded by double-walled carbon nanotubes (DWCNTs) and multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNTs) by using pulsed Nd:YAG laser. Variable input factors are considered as the laser energy (or the relevant power), pulse duration and pulse repetition rate. Results indicated that the DWCNTs increased the PMMA’s surface electrical conductivity from 10-15 S/m to 0.813×103 S/m while the MWCNTs raised it to 0.14×103 S/m. Hence, the DWCNTs achieved an increase of almost 6 times than that for the MWCNTs. Moreover, the former increased the thermal conductivity of the surface by 8 times and the later by 5 times.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of constructivist model of yager in acquiring the geographical concepts among first intermediate students in geography
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The purpose of the study is to investigate the effect of the constructivist model of yager in acquiring the geographical concepts among first intermediate students in geography. The study was carried on based on the null hypothesis, which states, there is no significant difference at the level of (0.05) between the experimental group that follows yager model in learning the principles of geography, and the control group that studies the same subject considering the traditional methods of learning, the. To do so, a sample of (70) first-intermediate student were chosen purposefully from two random class for the academic year (2016-2017) divided into two groups. The selected schools located at Al-rusafa side in the city of Baghdad, as well

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Solution for Linear Fredholm Integro-Differential Equation Using Touchard Polynomials
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A new method based on the Touchard polynomials (TPs) was presented for the numerical solution of the linear Fredholm integro-differential equation (FIDE) of the first order and second kind with condition. The derivative and integration of the (TPs) were simply obtained. The convergence analysis of the presented method was given and the applicability was proved by some numerical examples. The results obtained in this method are compared with other known results.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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