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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Composites For Construction
Prediction of Concrete Cover Separation in Reinforced Concrete Beams Strengthened with FRP
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining ACE-2 Level and Some Relevant Biochemical Parameters and studying the effect of Gender in Iraqi Diabetic Patients with Glomeruli and Renal Tubules Fibrosis as Early Prediction Marker
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     Diabetic kidney disease is an illness of the glomerulus that interferes with the glomerular filtration barrier (GFB), which is worked to enable kidney to selective purification of water and solutes in addition to limiting the movement of large macromolecules such as albumin. In the glomerular endothelium, mesangial cells, foot cells, and the brush border of the proximal tubules, ACE-2 is expressed and that the kidneys represent the highest-expressing region of this enzyme. Thus, the current study aimed to evaluate ACE-2 level in this case compared to healthy condition. The study Conducted with 120 male and female ranging in age (30-65) years old. Ninety patients with type 2 diabetes subdivided into three groups on the basis of A

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 27 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The Determination of Critical-Sampling Scheme of Preprocessing for Multiwavelets Decomposition as 1st and 2nd Orders of Approximations.
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One of the important differences between multiwavelets and scalar wavelets is that each channel in the filter bank has a vector-valued input and a vector-valued output. A scalar-valued input signal must somehow be converted into a suitable vector-valued signal. This conversion is called preprocessing. Preprocessing is a mapping process which is done by a prefilter. A postfilter just does the opposite.

The most obvious way to get two input rows from a given signal is to repeat the signal. Two rows go into the multifilter bank. This procedure is called “Repeated Row” which introduces oversampling of the data by a factor of 2.

 For data compression, where one is trying to find compact transform representations for a

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Teaching Using Adey- Shire Model and its Effect in Achievement and Critical Thinking for first intermediate students in Mathematics
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The aim of this research is to measure the effect of Adey- Shire model in the achievement and critical thinking of first intermediate female students in mathematics. The researcher adopted the experimental method with a post-test, the research of sample consists of (60) female students, divided into two groups with (30) students in the experimental group, that studied with Adey- Shire model, and (30) students in the control group who studied in the usual way. The two groups are equivalent in many variables. The researcher makes two tests of multiple choices, the first one is an achievement test consists (30) items and another test was for a critical thinking test with (25) items. The statistical analysis make to both tests is made with s

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Project Management Maturity Model to Evaluate Construction Sector -Organizations. Case Study at the Department of buildings - Karkh first
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The education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use aggregate slide estimate additive splines estimation for the diagnosis of non-linear composite model self-regression with practical application
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Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines  estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property  to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Estimation of urban land price within holly cities by using integrated GIS-regression models: case study Al-Kufa city- Iraq
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        Urban land price is the primary indicator of land development in urban areas. Land prices in holly cities have rapidly increased due to tourism and religious activities. Public agencies are usually facing challenges in managing land prices in religious areas. Therefore, they require developed models or tools to understand land prices within religious cities. Predicting land prices can efficiently retain future management and develop urban lands within religious cities. This study proposed a new methodology to predict urban land prices within holy cities. The methodology is based on two models, Linear Regression (LR) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), and nine variables (land price, land area,

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Solving Fractional Damped Burgers' Equation Approximately by Using The Sumudu Transform (ST) Method
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       In this work, the fractional damped Burger's equation (FDBE) formula    = 0,

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 21 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis of Gold Nanoparticles by using Batch Method and Study its Antibacterial Activity
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The research involves preparing gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) and studying the factors that influence the shape, sizes and distribution ratio of the prepared particles according to Turkevich method. These factors include (reaction temperature, initial heating, concentration of gold ions, concentration and quantity of added citrate, reaction time and order of reactant addition). Gold nanoparticles prepared were characterized by the following measurements: UV-Visible spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. The average size of gold nanoparticles was formed in the range (20 -35) nm. The amount of added citrate was changed and studied. In addition, the concentration of added gold ions was changed and the calibration cur

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