The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Increasing material prices coupled with the emission of hazardous gases through the production and construction of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) has driven a strong movement toward the adoption of sustainable construction technology. Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) is considered relatively a new technology, which enables the production and compaction of asphalt concrete mixtures at temperatures 15-40 °C lower than that of traditional hot mix asphalt. The Resilient modulus (Mr) which can be defined as the ratio of axial pulsating stress to the corresponding recoverable strain, is used to evaluate the relative quality of materials as well as to generate input for pavement design or pavement evaluation and analysis. Based on the aforementioned preface, it is
... Show MoreThe study addresses the problem of stagnation and declining economic growth rates in Arab countries since the eighties till today after the progress made by these countries in the sixties of the last century. The study reviews the e
... Show MoreThe current study uses the flame fragment deposition (FFD) method to synthesize carbon nanotubes (CNTs) from Iraqi liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is used as a carbon source. To carry out the synthesis steps, a homemade reactor was used. To eliminate amorphous impurities, the CNTs were sonicated in a 30 percent hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) solution at ambient temperature. To remove the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) generated during LPG combustion, sonication in an acetone bath is used. The produced products were investigated and compared with standard Multi-walled carbon nanotube MWCNTs (95%), Sigma, Aldrich, using X-ray diffraction (XRD), thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA), Raman spectroscopy, scanning el
... Show MoreAn analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.
A set of ten drug compounds containing an amino group in the structure were determined theoretically. The parameters were entered into a model to forecast the optimal values of practical (log P) medicinal molecules. The drugs were evaluated theoretically using different types of calculations which are AM1, PM3, and Hartree Fock at the basis set (HF/STO-3G). The Physico-chemical data like (entropy, total energy, Gibbs Free Energy,…etc were computed and played an important role in the predictions of the practical lipophilicity values. Besides, Eigenvalues named HOMO and LUMO were determined. Linearity was shown when correlated between the experimental data with the evaluated physical properties. The statistical analysis was used to analy
... Show MoreThe imbalances and economic problems which it face the countries, it is a result of international economic developments or changes or global crises such as deterioration in trade, sharp changes in oil prices, increasing global indebtedness, sharp changes in foreign exchange rates and other changes, all that, they affect the economic features of any country. and These influences vary from one country to another according to the rigidity of its economy and its potential in maneuvering with economic plans and actions that would reduce the impact or avoidance with minimal damage. Therefore, the countries that suffer from accumulated economic problems as a result of mismanagement and poor planning or suffe
... Show MoreResearch summarized in applying the model of fuzzy goal programming for aggregate production planning , in General Company for hydraulic industries / plastic factory to get an optimal production plan trying to cope with the impact that fluctuations in demand and employs all available resources using two strategies where they are available inventories strategy and the strategy of change in the level of the workforce, these strategies costs are usually imprecise/fuzzy. The plant administration trying to minimize total production costs, minimize carrying costs and minimize changes in labour levels. depending on the gained data from th
... Show Morethe main of this paper is to give a comprehensive presentation of estimating methods namely maximum likelihood bayes and proposed methods for the parameter
One of the most important problems in the statistical inference is estimating parameters and Reliability parameter and also interval estimation , and testing hypothesis . estimating two parameters of exponential distribution and also reliability parameter in a stress-strength model.
This parameter deals with estimating the scale parameter and the Location parameter µ , of two exponential distribution ,using moments estimator and maximum likelihood estimator , also we estimate the parameter R=pr(x>y), where x,y are two- parameter independent exponential random variables .
Statistical properties of this distribution and its properti
... Show More