The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Weibull distribution is considered as one of the most widely distribution applied in real life, Its similar to normal distribution in the way of applications, it's also considered as one of the distributions that can applied in many fields such as industrial engineering to represent replaced and manufacturing time ,weather forecasting, and other scientific uses in reliability studies and survival function in medical and communication engineering fields.
In this paper, The scale parameter has been estimated for weibull distribution using Bayesian method based on Jeffery prior information as a first method , then enhanced by improving Jeffery prior information and then used as a se
... Show MoreThis paper considers a new Double Integral transform called Double Sumudu-Elzaki transform DSET. The combining of the DSET with a semi-analytical method, namely the variational iteration method DSETVIM, to arrive numerical solution of nonlinear PDEs of Fractional Order derivatives. The proposed dual method property decreases the number of calculations required, so combining these two methods leads to calculating the solution's speed. The suggested technique is tested on four problems. The results demonstrated that solving these types of equations using the DSETVIM was more advantageous and efficient
In this research, the performance of a two kind of membrane was examined to recovering the nutrients (protein and lactose) from the whey produced by the soft cheese industry in the General Company for Food Products inAbo-ghraab.Wheyare treated in two stages, the first including press whey into micron filter made of poly vinylidene difluoride (PVDF) standard plate type 800 kilo dalton, The membrane separates the whey to permeate which represent is the main nutrients and to remove the fat and microorganisms.The second stage is to isolate the protein by using ultra filter made of polyethylsulphone(PES)type plate with a measurement of 10,60 kilo dalton and the recovery of lactose in the form of permeate.
The results showed that the percen
A new design of manifold flow injection (FI) coupling with a merging zone technique was studied for sulfamethoxazole determination spectrophotometrically. The semiautomated FI method has many advantages such as being fast, simple, highly accurate, economical with high throughput . The suggested method based on the production of the orange- colored compound of SMZ with (NQS)1,2-Naphthoquinone-4-Sulphonic acid Sodium salt in alkaline media NaOH at λmax 496nm.The linearity range of sulfamethoxazole was 3-100 μg. mL-1, with (LOD) was 0.593 μg. mL-1 and the RSD% is about 1.25 and the recovery is 100.73%. All various physical and chemical parameters that have an effect on the stability and development of
... Show MoreMicrobial activity of Ellagic acid when mixed with some types of candy toward Streptococcus mutans microorganism was studied. The main purpose of carrying out this study is to produce a new type of candy that contains Ellagic acid in addition to xylitol instead of sucrose to prevent dental caries. The results show that the inhibitory action of Ellagic acid was more effective when mixed with this type of candy for the purpose of reducing Streptococcus mutans microorganisms, while sensory evaluation was applied in this study to 20 volunteers to that candy sample evaluated which contain (5 mg/ml) Ellagic acid with 100g xylitol to determine consumers acceptability of this sample of candy. The results were expressed as mean value, slandered d
... Show MoreAbstract
In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
... Show MoreIncreasing material prices coupled with the emission of hazardous gases through the production and construction of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) has driven a strong movement toward the adoption of sustainable construction technology. Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) is considered relatively a new technology, which enables the production and compaction of asphalt concrete mixtures at temperatures 15-40 °C lower than that of traditional hot mix asphalt. The Resilient modulus (Mr) which can be defined as the ratio of axial pulsating stress to the corresponding recoverable strain, is used to evaluate the relative quality of materials as well as to generate input for pavement design or pavement evaluation and analysis. Based on the aforementioned preface, it is
... Show MoreIn this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical method to estimate reliability function of three systems : k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has be
... Show MoreAn analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.