The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This study relates to the estimation of a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables ( ) are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method and Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator .
That is , parameters will be estim
... Show MoreIn recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may
... Show MoreSeparation of Trigonelline, the major alkaloid in fenugreek seeds, is difficult because the extract of these seeds usually contains Trigonelline, choline, mucilage, and steroidal saponins, in addition to some other substances. This study amis to isolate the quaternary ammonium alkaloid (Trigonelline) and choline from fenugreek seeds (Trigonella-foenum graecum L.) which have similar physiochemical properties by modifying of the classical method. Seeds were defatted and then extracted with methanol. The presence of alkaloids was detected by using Mayer's and Dragendorff's reagents. In this work, trigonilline was isolated with traces of choline by subsequent processes of purification using analytical and preparative TLC techniques.
... Show MoreIn this study, we investigate about the estimation improvement for Autoregressive model of the third order, by using Levinson-Durbin Recurrence (LDR) and Weighted Least Squares Error ( WLSE ).By generating time series from AR(3) model when the error term for AR(3) is normally and Non normally distributed and when the error term has ARCH(q) model with order q=1,2.We used different samples sizes and the results are obtained by using simulation. In general, we concluded that the estimation improvement for Autoregressive model for both estimation methods (LDR&WLSE), would be by increasing sample size, for all distributions which are considered for the error term , except the lognormal distribution. Also we see that the estimation improve
... Show MoreThis research aims primarily to highlight personal tax exemptions A comparative study with some Arab and European regulations. And by conducting both theoretical comparative analyses. Most important findings of the study is the need to grant personal and family exemptions that differ according to the civil status of the taxpayer (single or married). In other words, the exemption increases as the number of family members depend on its social sense. Also taking into account some incomes that require a certain effort and looking at the tax rates, it is unreasonable for wages to be subject to the same rates applied to commercial profits.
Quality of e-service is one of the critical factors that decide the success or failure of organizations. It may increase competitive advantages as well as enhance the relationships with the customers. Achieving high e-service quality and user satisfaction are challenging since they depend fundamentally on user perception and expectation which can be tricky at times. To date, there is no agreement as to what service quality is, and how it should be measured, whether it is a function of statistical measures of quality including physical defects or managerial judgment, or it is a function of customer perception about the services. This paper deep-dived the quality of e-services offered b
Shallow foundations are usually used for structures with light to moderate loads where the soil underneath can carry them. In some cases, soil strength and/or other properties are not adequate and require improvement using one of the ground improvement techniques. Stone column is one of the common improvement techniques in which a column of stone is installed vertically in clayey soils. Stone columns are usually used to increase soil strength and to accelerate soil consolidation by acting as vertical drains. Many researches have been done to estimate the behavior of the improved soil. However, none of them considered the effect of stone column geometry on the behavior of the circular footing. In this research, finite ele
... Show MoreThe problem of the study and its significance:
Due to the increasing pressures of life continually, and constant quest behind materialism necessary and frustrations that confront us daily in general, the greater the emergence of a number of cases of disease organic roots psychological causing them because of severity of a lack of response to conventional treatments (drugs), and this is creating in patients a number of emotional disorders resulting from concern the risk of disease
That is interested psychologists and doctors searchin
... Show MoreThe researcher of human history finds that the first social relations on earth were represented by the violence of Adam, peace be upon him, Cain and Abel. Violence has been a phenomenon of life and society. The history of history is full of all forms of violence and its forms. It speaks of cruelty, oppression and states. History began, in some of its chapters, written with the blood of the victims. It is a testimony to the cruelty of human beings. His human nature and his sin have played a major role that can not be overlooked in the development of important and fundamental developments in some historical turning points where violence was a necessity for life, and its launching change, renewal and reform, and major revolutions in human h
... Show MoreBackground: Scientific education aims to be inclusive and to improve students learning achievements, through appropriate teaching and learning. Problem Based Learning (PBL) system, a student centered method, started in the second half of the previous century and is expanding progressively, organizes learning around problems and students learn about a subject through the experience of solving these problems.Objectives:To assess the opinions of undergraduate medical students regarding learning outcomes of PBL in small group teaching and to explore their views about the role of tutors and methods of evaluation. Type of the study: A cross-sectional study.Methods: This study was conducted in Kerbala Medical Colleges among second year students
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