The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract:
This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.
The comparison was done by simulation using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood with sample size (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param
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Find interested in the harmonization of variables and determinants of supply chain planning needs of the material, leading to the results start effective supply chain management, and end up quickly modify the sizes to suit the demand and turnover in the market. As well as identifying relationships between variables, and type of relationship used by the company with the processors and their feasibility, and indicate the level of interest and willingness to redesign the supply chain Company for Electrical Industries and build an integrated model for supply chain with the MRP system can be applied in the company.
Research depend on quantitative and descriptive method, It
... Show MoreThe control charts are one of the scientific technical statistics tools that will be used to control of production and always contained from three lines central line and upper, lower lines to control quality of production and represents set of numbers so finally the operating productivity under control or nor than depending on the actual observations. Some times to calculating the control charts are not accurate and not confirming, therefore the Fuzzy Control Charts are using instead of Process Control Charts so this method is more sensitive, accurate and economically for assisting decision maker to control the operation system as early time. In this project will be used set data fr
... Show MoreMaulticollinearity is a problem that always occurs when two or more predictor variables are correlated with each other. consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with biased estimates results, There are several methods which are proposed to handle this problem including the method To address a problem and method To address a problem , In this research a comparisons are employed between the biased method and unbiased method with Bayesian using Gamma distribution method addition to Ordinary Least Square metho
... Show More This research aims to estimate stock returns, according to the Rough Set Theory approach, test its effectiveness and accuracy in predicting stock returns and their potential in the field of financial markets, and rationalize investor decisions. The research sample is totaling (10) companies traded at Iraq Stock Exchange. The results showed a remarkable Rough Set Theory application in data reduction, contributing to the rationalization of investment decisions. The most prominent conclusions are the capability of rough set theory in dealing with financial data and applying it for forecasting stock returns.The research provides those interested in investing stocks in financial
... Show MoreThe Log-Logistic distribution is one of the important statistical distributions as it can be applied in many fields and biological experiments and other experiments, and its importance comes from the importance of determining the survival function of those experiments. The research will be summarized in making a comparison between the method of maximum likelihood and the method of least squares and the method of weighted least squares to estimate the parameters and survival function of the log-logistic distribution using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE, IMSE, and this research was applied to real data for breast cancer patients. The results showed that the method of Maximum likelihood best in the case of estimating the paramete
... Show MoreThis study Studied Ministry of Hamdy Al-Buchachy(the first)and explain the features of
this Ministry in a critical time in the history of Iraq. The second world war had began and its
end had reached .The political situation in Iraq is so complicated. The Ministry had made
many things. The Ministry had situated in internal and external complicated time. The
situation in Iraq was so difficult, therefore the recommendor (Abdul-Ilah)asked Hamdy Al-
Bachachy to make be the head of the new governments Al-Bachachy had made irrelevant
government, thus it didn’t last more than three months and the British governorate and of
direct in terference in Iraq who worked to reduce the Iraqi army and the Minister of Defence
refus
This work, deals with Kumaraswamy distribution. Kumaraswamy (1976, 1978) showed well known probability distribution functions such as the normal, beta and log-normal but in (1980) Kumaraswamy developed a more general probability density function for double bounded random processes, which is known as Kumaraswamy’s distribution. Classical maximum likelihood and Bayes methods estimator are used to estimate the unknown shape parameter (b). Reliability function are obtained using symmetric loss functions by using three types of informative priors two single priors and one double prior. In addition, a comparison is made for the performance of these estimators with respect to the numerical solution which are found using expansion method. The
... Show MoreThis paper discusses estimating the two scale parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution for singly type one censored data which is one of the most important Rights censored data, using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLEM) which is one of the most popular and widely used classic methods, based on an iterative procedure such as the Newton-Raphson to find estimated values for these two scale parameters by using real data for COVID-19 was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. The duration of the study was in the interval 4/5/2020 until 31/8/2020 equivalent to 120 days, where the number of patients who entered the (study) hospital with sample size is (n=785). The number o
... Show MoreIn recent years, non-oil primary balance indicator has been given considerable financial important in rentier state. It highly depends on this indicator to afford a clear and proper picture of public finance situation in term of appropriate and sustainability in these countries, due to it excludes the effect of oil- rental from compound of financial accounts which provide sufficient information to economic policy makers of how economy is able to create potential added value and then changes by eliminating one sided shades of economy. In Iraq, since, 2004, the deficit in value of this indicator has increased, due to almost complete dependence on the revenues of the oil to finance the budget and the obvious decline of the non-oil s
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