The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
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Abstract
Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia
... Show MoreThe characteristics of sulfur nanoparticles were studied by using atomic force microscope (AFM) analysis. The atomic force microscope (AFM) measurements showed that the average size of sulfur nanoparticles synthesized using thiosulfate sodium solution through the extract of cucurbita pepo extra was 93.62 nm. Protecting galvanized steel from corrosion in salt media was achieved by using sulfur nanoparticles in different temperatures. The obtained data of thermodynamic in the presence of sulfur nanoparticles referred to high value as compares to counterpart in the absence of sulfur nanoparticles, the high inhibition efficiency (%IE) and corrosion resistance were at high temperature, the corrosion rate or weig
... Show MoreThe electrospun nanofibers membranes have gained considerable interest in water filtration applications. In this work, the fabrication and characterization of the electrospun polyacrylonitrile-based nonwoven nanofibers membrane are reported. Then, the membrane's performance and antifouling properties were evaluated in removing emulsified oil using a cross flow filtration system. The membranes were fabricated with different polyacrylonitrile (PAN) concentrations (8, 11, and 14 wt. %) in N, N-Dimethylformamide (DMF) solvent resulted in various average fiber sizes, porosity, contact angle, permeability, oil rejection, and antifouling properties. Analyses of surface morphology of the fabricated membranes before and after oil removal revealed
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In this paper, the using of Non-Homogenous Poisson Processes, with one of the scientific and practical means in the Operations Research had been carried out, which is the Queuing Theory, as those operations are affected by time in their conduct by one function which has a cyclic behavior, called the (Sinusoidal Function). (Mt / M / S) The model was chosen, and it is Single Queue Length with multiple service Channels, and using the estimating scales (QLs, HOL, HOLr) was carried out in considering the delay occurring to the customer before his entrance to the service, with the comparison of the best of them in the cases of the overload.
Through the experiments
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XML is being incorporated into the foundation of E-business data applications. This paper addresses the problem of the freeform information that stored in any organization and how XML with using this new approach will make the operation of the search very efficient and time consuming. This paper introduces new solution and methodology that has been developed to capture and manage such unstructured freeform information (multi information) depending on the use of XML schema technologies, neural network idea and object oriented relational database, in order to provide a practical solution for efficiently management multi freeform information system.
This paper deals with a method called Statistical Energy Analysis that can be applied to the mechanical and acoustical systems like buildings, bridges and aircrafts …etc. S.E.A as a tool can be applied to the resonant systems in the circumstances of high frequency or/and complex structure». The parameters of S.E.A such as coupling loss factor, internal loss factor, modal density and input power are clarified in this work ; coupled plate sub-systems and explanations are presented for these parameters. The developed system is assumed to be resonant, conservative, linear and there is an equipartition of energy between all the resonant modes within a given frequency band in a given sub-system. The aim of th
... Show MoreAleksandr Isayevich Solzhenitsyn was born in 1918 in Kislovodsk. His father was educated, and despite his peasantry origin, he got a university degree. Unfortunately, however, Solzhenitsyn could not recognize his father, for he died before his birth.
Solzhenitsyn was accused of being an opponent to the Soviet Union due to his activities of that time. He was exiled to a forced labour camp for eight years, on the surroundings of Moscow. He spent three years in Kazakhstan, and was sent to the life exile. He was set free in 1956. He worked as a teacher in in rural schools in Vladimir and then in Rezhran.
His greatest works were in the reign of Kherchov, and in 1962 appeared his story under the title of "One day in
... Show MoreIn this paper, an approach for object tracking that is inspired from human oculomotor system is proposed and verified experimentally. The developed approach divided into two phases, fast tracking or saccadic phase and smooth pursuit phase. In the first phase, the field of the view is segmented into four regions that are analogue to retinal periphery in the oculomotor system. When the object of interest is entering these regions, the developed vision system responds by changing the values of the pan and tilt angles to allow the object lies in the fovea area and then the second phase will activate. A fuzzy logic method is implemented in the saccadic phase as an intelligent decision maker to select the values of the pan and tilt angle based
... Show MoreSteganography is defined as hiding confidential information in some other chosen media without leaving any clear evidence of changing the media's features. Most traditional hiding methods hide the message directly in the covered media like (text, image, audio, and video). Some hiding techniques leave a negative effect on the cover image, so sometimes the change in the carrier medium can be detected by human and machine. The purpose of suggesting hiding information is to make this change undetectable. The current research focuses on using complex method to prevent the detection of hiding information by human and machine based on spiral search method, the Structural Similarity Index Metrics measures are used to get the accuracy and quality
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