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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Prediction of Hydraulic Flow Units for Jeribe Reservoir in Jambour Oil Field Applying Flow Zone Indicator Method
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The Jeribe reservoir in the Jambour Oil Field is a complex and heterogeneous carbonate reservoir characterized by a wide range of permeability variations. Due to limited availability of core plugs in most wells, it becomes crucial to establish correlations between cored wells and apply them to uncored wells for predicting permeability. In recent years, the Flow Zone Indicator (FZI) approach has gained significant applicability for predicting hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and identifying rock types within the reservoir units.

   This paper aims to develop a permeability model based on the principles of the Flow Zone Indicator. Analysis of core permeability versus core porosity plot and Reservoir Quality Index (RQI) - Normalized por

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 18 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization and Prediction of Process Parameters in SPIF that Affecting on Surface Quality Using Simulated Annealing Algorithm
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Incremental sheet metal forming is a modern technique of sheet metal forming in which a uniform sheet is locally deformed during the progressive action of a forming tool. The tool movement is governed by a CNC milling machine. The tool locally deforms by this way the sheet with pure deformation stretching. In SPIF process, the research is concentrate on the development of predict models for estimate the product quality. Using simulated annealing algorithm (SAA), Surface quality in SPIF has been modeled. In the development of this predictive model, spindle speed, feed rate and step depth have been considered as model parameters. Maximum peak height (Rz) and Arithmetic mean surface roughness (Ra) are used as response parameter to assess th

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Process Parameters That Affecting on Surface Roughness in Multi-Point Forming Process Using ANOVA Algorithm
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for Prediction of Viscosity Reduction of Heavy Crude Oil using Different Organic Solvents
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The increase globally fossil fuel consumption as it represents the main source of energy around the world, and the sources of heavy oil more than light, different techniques were used to reduce the viscosity and increase mobility of heavy crude oil. this study focusing on the experimental tests  and modeling with Back Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (BFF-ANN) of the dilution technique to reduce a  heavy oil viscosity that was collected from the south- Iraq oil fields using organic solvents, organic diluents with different weight percentage  (5, 10 and  20 wt.% )  of  (n-heptane, toluene, and a mixture of  different ratio

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology (jestec)
Water Quality Assessment And Total Dissolved Solids Prediction For Tigris River In Baghdad City Using Mathematical Models
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Total dissolved solids are at the top of the parameters list of water quality that requires investigations for planning and management, especially for irrigation and drinking purposes. If the quality of water is sufficiently predictable, then appropriate management is possible. In the current study, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used as indicators of water quality and for the prediction of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) along the Tigris River, in Baghdad city. To build these models five water parameters were selected from the intakes of four water treatment plants on the Tigris River, for the period between 2013 and 2017. The selected water parameters were Total Dissolved Solids (TDS

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Multiphase Flow Behavior Prediction and Optimal Correlation Selection for Vertical Lift Performance in Faihaa Oil Field, Iraq
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In the petroleum industry, multiphase flow dynamics within the tubing string have gained significant attention due to associated challenges. Accurately predicting pressure drops and wellbore pressures is crucial for the effective modeling of vertical lift performance (VLP). This study focuses on predicting the multiphase flow behavior in four wells located in the Faihaa oil field in southern Iraq, utilizing PIPESIM software. The process of selecting the most appropriate multiphase correlation was performed by utilizing production test data to construct a comprehensive survey data catalog. Subsequently, the results were compared with the correlations available within the PIPESIM software. The outcomes reveal that the Hagedorn and Brown (H

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid Trunk Sewer Deterioration Prediction Models using Multiple Discriminant and Neural Network Models in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Prediction Formula for The Estimation of Sediment Load in The Upper Reach of Al-Gharraf River
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The presence of deposition in the river decreases the river flow capability's efficiency due to the absence of maintenance along the river. In This research, a new formula to evaluate the sediment capacity in the upstream part of Al-Gharraf River will be developed. The current study reach lies in Wasit province with a distance equal to 58 km. The selected reach of the river was divided into thirteen stations. At each station, the suspended load and the bedload were collected from the river during a sampling period extended from February 2019 till July 2019. The samples were examined in the laboratory with a different set of sample tests. The formula was developed using data of ten stations, and the other three s

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Publication Date
Thu May 01 2025
Journal Name
2025 3rd International Conference On Business Analytics For Technology And Security (icbats)
Comparison of Deep Neural Network Models (LSTM, Bi-LSTM, GRU and Bi-GRU) for Gold Price Prediction
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This research studies the comparison of deep neural network models and performance evaluation to predict the gold prices of time series, where the gold prices contain high fluctuations and non-linear patterns that are difficult to capture using traditional models, which makes predicting them a significant challenge. Therefore, the focus was on using deep learning models represented by (LSTM), (Bi-LSTM), (GRU) and (Bi-GRU). The results showed the superiority of the (Bi-GRU) model according to comparison criteria (MSE), (RMSE), (MAE), and (R∧2) compared to other models because it was able to understand the time patterns better by processing the data in both directions and provided superior performance, which indicates its effectiveness, eff

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 20 2028
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR CAROTENOIDS PRODUCTION BY CHEMICAL MUTANAT LOCAL ISOLATE RHODOTORUL MUCILAGENOSA M.: DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR CAROTENOIDS PRODUCTION BY CHEMICAL MUTANAT LOCAL ISOLATE RHODOTORUL MUCILAGENOSA M.
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The aim of this study was to increasing natural carotenoides production by a locally isolate Rodotorula mucilagenosa M. by determination of the optimal conditions for growth and production of this agents, for encouragest to use it in food application permute artificial pigments which harmfull for consumer health and envieronmental. The optimal condition of carotenoides production from Rhodotorula mucilaginosa M were studied. The results shows the best carbon and nitrogen source were glucose and yeast extract. The carotenoids a mount production was 47430 microgram ̸ litter and 47460 microgram ̸ litter, respectively, and the optimum temperature was 30°C, PH 6, that the carotenoides a mount was 47470 microgram ̸ litter and 47670 microgr

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