The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
ABSTRACT
The effect of adding raw bacteriocin produced by Lactobacillus bulgaricus to cheese curd at an amount of (5 and 10 and 15) mL/kg cheese as a biological preservative to prolong the shelf life of soft cheese, in addition to the control treatment, knowing that each 1 mL of bacteriocin filter contains 15 units/ mL of bacteriocin. The results of the physicochemical, microbial and sensory tests for cheese stored at refrigerator temperature for a period (zero) to (21) d of adding bacteriocin showed the superiority of the treatment of cheese added to 15 mL/kg cheese of bacteriocin over the rest of the other treatments during the storage period, wh
... Show MoreThe aim of this study was to increasing natural carotenoides production by a locally isolate Rodotorula mucilagenosa M. by determination of the optimal conditions for growth and production of this agents, for encouragest to use it in food application permute artificial pigments which harmfull for consumer health and envieronmental. The optimal condition of carotenoides production from Rhodotorula mucilaginosa M were studied. The results shows the best carbon and nitrogen source were glucose and yeast extract. The carotenoids a mount production was 47430 microgram ̸ litter and 47460 microgram ̸ litter, respectively, and the optimum temperature was 30°C, PH 6, that the carotenoides a mount was 47470 microgram ̸ litter and 47670 microgr
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the possibility of applying environmental fines to commercial shops and restaurants to reduce the environmental pollution represented by the wastes generated from them. The research sample was divided into two groups, including the first (20) commercial shops (meat shops and slaughter it, fruits & vegetables, legumes and accessories) and second (30) Restaurant in the city of Baghdad on both sides of Karkh and Rusafa. The quality of the waste was classified into carton, plastic, aluminum, glass, paper, cork and food waste. The study revealed the possibility of applying environmental fines to restaurants and shops to reduce the waste generated from them throughout the year and to apply continuous monitorin
... Show MoreTo investigate the role of IL-6 and IL-8 in the immune-regulatory mechanisms involved in the recurrent spontaneous abortion of the first trimester of pregnancy. Serum level of IL-6 and IL-8 were determined in 25 women of age (20-35) years who had a spontaneous abortion of unknown aetiology during the first trimester of pregnancy .They were compared with the corresponding levels of 20 pregnant and non-pregnant women as control groups .cytokine levels were measured by (ELISA) technique .The women with spontaneous abortion had highly significant (P < 0.01) increased serum level of IL-8 and highly significant (P < 0.01 ) decreased level of IL-6 compared to those with normal pregnant and non-pregnant women. The results of this study ma
... Show MoreThis studay was performd on 30 serum specimens of patients having type II diabetes with cardiac disease, and 40 normal specimens were investigated as control group.The activity rate of AAP in patients (125.31± 3.28)I.U/L and activity rate of AAP in normals (6.76±2.21) I.U/L, in addition purification of AAP from serum patients having type II diabetes with cardiac diaease by using dialysis bag and gel filtration (Sephadex G-50). The results of the study reveal that Alanine aminopeptidase (AAP) activity of type II diabetes with cardiac disease patients' serum show a high signifiacant increase (p<0.001) compare to normal subject .
A total of (90) blood samples were collected from male patients infected with Toxoplasmosis who recovered from COVID- 19 and attended Kamal Alsamiraai Hospital from 15 January to 15 September 2021. We measured anti-Toxoplasma antibodies (IgG and IgM) detected by ELISA, whereas Anti-COVID-19 antibodies (IgG and IgM) were estimated using Elisa and Afilias. The semen characteristics were also studied among fertile, healthy individuals (control group) and sub-fertile patients. Results showed that the mean sperm count was high among the control group (40.5±1.3x 106/ml) compared with that of the sub-fertile patients (10.3±1.75 and 8.8±1.9 x 106/ml for oligozoospermia, and oligoasthenozoospermia respectively), and it was the highest (44.7±1.4
... Show MoreBiodiesel define as the mono-alkyl esters of vegetable oil and animal fats is an alternative diesel fuel that is steadily gaining attention because the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas has been identify as a major cause of the increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere and causing global warming.
The present work concerns with estimating the physical properties experimentally such as kinematic viscosity, density, flash point and carbon residue of biodiesel that produced by the esterification reaction of methanol and oleic acid with homogeneous catalysts H2SO4 in a lab-scale packed reactive distillation column using the best operating conditions of methanol to oleic acid 8:1,
Water contamination is a pressing global concern, especially regarding the presence of nitrate ions. This research focuses on addressing this issue by developing an effective adsorbent for removing nitrate ions from aqueous solutions. two adsorbents Chitosan-Zeolite-Zirconium (Cs-Ze-Zr composite beads and Chitosan-Bentonite-Zirconium Cs-Bn-Zr composite beads were prepared. The study involved continuous experimentation using a fixed bed column with varying bed heights (1.5 and 3 cm) and inlet flow rates (1 and 3 ml/min). The results showed that the breakthrough time increased with higher bed heights for both Cs-Ze-Zr and Cs-Bn-Zr composite beads. Conversely, an increase in flow rate led to a decrease in breakthrough time. Notab
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