The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Through recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth
... Show MoreJudicial jurisprudence is one of the important legal solutions to address the shortcomings of legislation. Throughout its long history, human societies have known many cases in which the judge finds himself facing a legislative vacuum in addition to civil legal texts that are difficult for the judge to implement due to ambiguity or contradiction, which requires diligence. To rule on resolving disputes before him in order not to deny justice, but the judge in his jurisprudence was not absolute, but rather bound by certain controls represented by observing the wisdom of legislation on the one hand and taking into account the nature of the texts on the other side, and from here this research came to shed light on the jurisprudence and its cont
... Show MoreAbstract The purpose of this study, teach the art of performing Olympic lifts (snatch and, clean and jerk) using the two methods are instructional (self-learning associated with the model) and (reverse style of partial way). Identify the effectiveness of these methods in learning the art of performance and style of the best Olympic lifting in the learning and retention of novice for Olympic lifts. The research sample consisted of 16 lifters were selected purposively representing specialist center for the care of athletic talent to weightlifting for ages 14 years. The sample was divided into two experimental, Each group (8) eight weightlifters. The experimental group used the style of the first self-learning associated with the m
... Show MoreThis paper deals with an analytical study of the flow of an incompressible generalized Burgers’ fluid (GBF) in an annular pipe. We discussed in this problem the flow induced by an impulsive pressure gradient and compare the results with flow due to a constant pressure gradient. Analytic solutions for velocity is earned by using discrete Laplace transform (DLT) of the sequential fractional derivatives (FD) and finite Hankel transform (FHT). The influences of different parameters are analyzed on a velocity distribution characteristics and a comparison between two cases is also presented, and discussed in details. Eventually, the figures are plotted to exhibit these effects.
This study aimed at identifying the extent to which the social worker used the techniques of group discussion in the professional practice with the groups of school activity in the schools of Tubas governorate in light of some variables (gender, years of experience, academic qualification). The analytical descriptive method was used due to its suitability for the objectives of the study. A questionnaire was designed to collect data that included (30) items, distributed in three areas .The validity and reliability of the tool were verified and then distributed to the study sample.
The results of the study showed that the highest averages were in the discussion stage domain, where the pre-discussion stage was m
... Show MoreSoils at Al-Koot-Btera were choosen to determine their sedimentary
environments. It is found that there are , five soil series and as mentioned :
MF11-MW9-DM97-DM57-DF95 . The five found soil series are of internal
well drained ,moderate and imperfect. Their textures vary in moderately,fine
and moderately fine.
indicating that sediments rang from poorly to very poorly sorting. Values of median
diameter Md Ø range between 4.11-7.80 Ø .The relation between the sorting
and median diameter shows that 95.24% of samples is a sedimentary
environment of aquite river , while 4.76% is aeolian sediments.
The values of meso to platy kurtic of most horizon materials rang
between 0.67-1.26 Ø .That is to say the samples
This article conclude a theoretical study for the possibility to produce additional electric power from Iraqi steam power plants by cutting – off high-pressure feed water heaters . Three separated steam power plants which Dura , south –Baghdad and Nasria were studied . The investigation showed the possibity of increasing the electric power from 10 to 15% for Dura and Nasria , whereas 6% for south – Baghdad . According to the nowadays of operation to Iraqi steam power plants , the results showed that by cutting–off high pressure feed water heaters we can generate additional electric power about 250 MW during 3-4 hrs. daily. In addition, the fuel consumption can be reduced in comparison with diesel generat
... Show MoreUrine samples had been gathered from females living in Baghdad city. The sample consisted of 30 females who suffered from U.T.I (Urinary tract infections) and 20 healthy females. The type of urine U.T.I was specified by the emergency lab in Al-Kindy hospital, and alpha tracks were determined by the nuclear track detector CR-39. The concentrations of alpha in 30 urine samples taken from females who had U.T.I ranged from 0.327ppm-1.583ppm, with an average of 0.94965 ppm. The maximum value 1.583 ppm is belonging to females with an aged 57 years old. The results of healthy female concentration ranged from 0.022 ppm-0.459ppm with an average of (0.30855ppm). The findings revealed that alpha emitter concentrations differed from woman to woman,
... Show MoreDue to the importance of the extraction process in many engineering and medical industries, in addition to great interest in medicinal plants, in this research, microwave-assisted extraction has been applied to extract some active compounds from Rosmarinus officinalis leaves. The optimal extraction conditions were then determined by calculating the ratio and extraction efficiency. The process has also been described through kinetic study by applying five kinetic models, the Hyperbolic diffusion model, Power low model, the First order reaction model, Elovich's model, and Fick's second law diffusion model and determining their compatibility with the studies operation, and determining the kinetic constants for each model. The result
... Show MoreThe curriculum is a tool of the basic tools that seek through which educational institutions to achieve the objectives of any educational policy, and therefore must be a practical application of curriculum objectives of this policy. If, however, described the separate curricula for educational policy, that would be evidence of planning that leads to failure in achieving the great goals of society. The curriculum does not include the subject of education only, but goes to all the educational experiences that achieve the desired behavioral goals.
When goal-setting study for any of the articles should study the use of the overall goals of the article. And therefore must serve the general goals of academic material and objectives in one d