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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Achalasia Cardia: Short-term Results of 40 Iraqi Patients
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Background:   Achalasia is an uncommon but not a rare a malady.  In Iraq, we lack true statistics about this condition.

Objective:  is to review the experience with trans-thoracic modified Heller operation for achalasia cardia in a major thoracic surgical centre in Iraq over a 4-year period.

Study design: a combined retrospective and prospective study.

Setting: Department of Thoracic Surgery in Baghdad Medical City/Baghdad/Iraq. 

Methods: This study is both retrospective (20 cases) and prospective (20 cases); the information is collected from either patients, case sheets or obtained directly from patients, interviews. In both situa

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Planning the Production of the Electrical Distribution Converter (400KV/11) Using Time Series Methods and Goal Programming in the Fuzzy Environment
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This Paper aims to plan the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) for one month at Diyala Public Company and with more than one goal for the decision-maker in a fuzzy environment. The fuzzy demand was forecasting using the fuzzy time series model. The fuzzy lead time for raw materials involved in the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) was addressed using the fuzzy inference matrix through the application of the matrix in Matlab, and since the decision-maker has more than one goal, so a mathematical model of goal programming was create, which aims to achieve two goals, the first is to reduce the total production costs of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) and th

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 02 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Neonatal Polycythemia in Children Welfare Teaching Hospital, Medical city complex, Baghdad
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Backgroun1d: Polycythemia is defined as a central Hematocrit of at least 65%. Its` incidence is increased in babies who have intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), are small for gestational age (SGA), and are born post term.  Many infants with polycythemia are asymptomatic. However, it may be associated with feeding problems and lethargy.   

Objectives: This work aimed to study the polycythemic neonates admitted to neonatal care unit in children welfare teaching hospital, medical city complex, Baghdad, including demographic features, risk factors, management and early outcome.

Patients and Methods: A descriptive study was carried out over

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 25 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Natural Language Processing For Requirement Elicitation In University Using Kmeans And Meanshift Algorithm
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 Data Driven Requirement Engineering (DDRE) represents a vision for a shift from the static traditional methods of doing requirements engineering to dynamic data-driven user-centered methods. Data available and the increasingly complex requirements of system software whose functions can adapt to changing needs to gain the trust of its users, an approach is needed in a continuous software engineering process. This need drives the emergence of new challenges in the discipline of requirements engineering to meet the required changes. The problem in this study was the method in data discrepancies which resulted in the needs elicitation process being hampered and in the end software development found discrepancies and could not meet the need

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Gentamycin injection in disc space during lumbar discectomy (aiming to prevent post - operative discitis)
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Background: Postoperative discitis is uncommon 4%, but it is the most disabling postoperative complication after lumbar discectomy.
Objective: To assess the effectiveness of intradiscal Gentamycin in prevention of lumbar discitis post operatively.
Patients and Methods: This is a prospective study involving 320 patients, who had lumbar discectomy. 140 patients (first group) from Jan. 2012 to Jan. 2013 were not had intradiscal gentamycin injection, while 180 patients (2nd group) From Jan 2013 to Jan 2014 (2nd group) had intradiscal injection of 80mg Gentamycin at the end of surgery and before closing up. Follow up was done 10 days to 6weeks after surgery by W.B.C count, ESR, C-reactive protein and clinical assessment.
Results: The

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Factors that predict mortality rate in biliary atresia
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Background: B.A is a relatively rare obstructive condition of the bile ducts causing neonatal jaundice. The etiology is unknown but is the result of a progressive obliterative process of variable extent.  If not treated, B.A is fatal within the first 2 years of life.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze & discuss the impact of many patients' factors on short-term outcome of patients with B.A who underwent Kasai operation in ou

Fac Med Baghdad

2014; Vol.56, No.2

Received: Feb. 2014

Accepted March. 2014

 

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Publication Date
Mon May 11 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Towards Accurate Pupil Detection Based on Morphology and Hough Transform
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 Automatic recognition of individuals is very important in modern eras. Biometric techniques have emerged as an answer to the matter of automatic individual recognition. This paper tends to give a technique to detect pupil which is a mixture of easy morphological operations and Hough Transform (HT) is presented in this paper. The circular area of the eye and pupil is divided by the morphological filter as well as the Hough Transform (HT) where the local Iris area has been converted into a rectangular block for the purpose of calculating inconsistencies in the image. This method is implemented and tested on the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CASIA V4) iris image database 249 person and the IIT Delhi (IITD) iris

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Prevalence and clinical characteristics of depression among elderly patients attending primary health care centers in Diyala Governorate
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Background: In the elderly, depression is the most frequent mood condition. It has been linked to major consequences such as disability, functional decline, decreased quality of life, higher mortality, it is the most costly health problem among elderly, a little study is written about depression among elderly patients in Iraq.

Objectives: To determine the prevalence of depression in elderly aged 60 years and more who visited primary health care centers in Diyala.

Methodology: It is a descriptive, cross-sectional study that was conducted on 218 patients from PHCs of 2 sectors: Al-Kales and 1st Baquba, Diyala governorate-Iraq. A direct interview was conducted by

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
An Application of the Banzhaf Values for Cooperating Among Producers of Waste Processing in the Al-Mahmudiya Factory
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     The game theory has been applied to all situations where agents’ (people or companies) actions are utility-maximizing, and the collaborative offshoot of game theory has proven to be a robust tool for creating effective collaboration strategies in a broad range of applications. In this paper first, we employ the Banzhaf values to show the potential cost to waste producers in the case of a cooperation and to reduce the overall costs of processing non-recyclable waste during cooperation between producers. Secondly, we propose an application of the methodology to study a case for five waste producers' waste management in the Al-Mahmudiya factory with the aim of displaying the potential cost to waste producers in case of cooperatio

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine the optimal decision in the process of production planning usingDynamic programming style
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The operation of production planning is a difficult operation and it's required High effect and large time especially it is dynamic activity which it's basic variables change in continuous with the time, for this reason it needs using one of the operation research manner (Dynamic programming) which has a force in the decision making process in the planning and control on the production and its direct affect on the cost of production operation and control on the inventory.

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