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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 01 2017
Journal Name
Global Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics
Solution of Modified Kuznetsov Model with Mixed Therapy
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In this paper two modifications on Kuznetsov model namely on growth rate law and fractional cell kill term are given. Laplace Adomian decomposition method is used to get the solution (volume of the tumor) as a function of time .Stability analysis is applied. For lung cancer the tumor will continue in growing in spite of the treatment.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Strength of Reinforced Concrete Columns with Transverse Openings
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The present work is concerned with the investigation of the behavior and ultimate capacity of axially loaded reinforced concrete columns in presence of transverse openings under axial load plus uniaxial bending. The experimental program includes testing of twenty reinforced concrete columns (150 × 150 × 700 mm) under concentric and eccentric load. Parameters considered include opening size, load eccentricity and influence of the direction of load eccentricity with respect to the longitudinal axis of the opening. Experimental results are discussed based on load – lateral mid height deflection curves, load – longitudinal shortening behavior, ultimate load and failure modes. It is found that when the direction of load

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2006
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Serum Zinc Level in Patients with Heart Failure
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Background: Zinc is involved in a variety of
metabolic processes and it has a well known
antioxidant activity, so the measurement of its serum
level can have a special value in several diseases.
Objectives: The study is designed to determine the
serum zinc level in heart failure patients and to
compare it with that of healthy individuals and to
study the significance of the results obtained.
Methods: Atomic absorption spectrometer
technique was used to determine serum zinc level in
fifty heart failure patients and fifty healthy individuals
who were age and sex matched.
Results: The mean serum zinc level in healthy
individuals was about 45.5% greater than that of heart
failure patients. This diffe

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Characteristic of Absorption with Reaction in Packed Column
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Publication Date
Fri Oct 02 2015
Journal Name
American Journal Of Applied Sciences
Advances in Document Clustering with Evolutionary-Based Algorithms
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Document clustering is the process of organizing a particular electronic corpus of documents into subgroups of similar text features. Formerly, a number of conventional algorithms had been applied to perform document clustering. There are current endeavors to enhance clustering performance by employing evolutionary algorithms. Thus, such endeavors became an emerging topic gaining more attention in recent years. The aim of this paper is to present an up-to-date and self-contained review fully devoted to document clustering via evolutionary algorithms. It firstly provides a comprehensive inspection to the document clustering model revealing its various components with its related concepts. Then it shows and analyzes the principle research wor

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 30 2007
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Urine Cytology in Patients with Long Standing Dialysis
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Background: Dialysis is in common use to treat patients
with end stage renal failure .However longstanding dialysis
harboring some cellular changes in various body fluids.
This study was conducted in order to detect these changes
in urine.
Objective: The study was conducted to detect cellular
changes in urine of patients with longstanding dialysis.
Method: Fifty-three urine samples were examined
cytologically obtained from patients with longstanding
dialysis during 6 months period. Freshly voided midstream
urine samples were taken . Samples were centrifuged and 2
to 3 drops of sediments were smeared on 2 glass slides and
fixed in 95% ethyl alcohol then stained with Hand E stain
to be evaluated.
R

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Publication Date
Sat May 28 2022
Journal Name
Abstract And Applied Analysis
Discretization Fractional-Order Biological Model with Optimal Harvesting
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In this paper, a discretization of a three-dimensional fractional-order prey-predator model has been investigated with Holling type III functional response. All its fixed points are determined; also, their local stability is investigated. We extend the discretized system to an optimal control problem to get the optimal harvesting amount. For this, the discrete-time Pontryagin’s maximum principle is used. Finally, numerical simulation results are given to confirm the theoretical outputs as well as to solve the optimality problem.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 17 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Interleukin-35 in Iraqi's Menopausal Women with Osteoporosis
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  Osteoporosis is related to the loss of bone mass that occurs as part of the natural process of aging and in menopausal women.           The aim of this study is to evaluate the levels of interleukin-35 in menopausal women with osteoporosis, that may be used as an early predicted marker of osteoblastic and osteoclastic activity in osteoporosis patients in relation with other diagnostic parameters.           Fasting blood samples were obtained from forty Iraqi menopausal women with mean age of (61.06±6.59)years who were newly diagnosed of osteoporosis by physicians at Baghdad Teaching Hospital as patients group(G1). In addition to , twenty two healthy women were included in the st

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Tympanostomy Tube Complication in Otitis Media with Effusion
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Background: Otitis media with effusion is characterized by accumulation of fluid in the middle ear in absence of acute inflammation and  it is the most common cause of  acquired hearing loss in children, and may  negatively affect language development failure of medical treatment of middle ear effusion frequently require myringotomy and tympanostomy tube insertion.

Objectives: To determine tympanostomy tube complications of tube in children with chronic otitis media with effusion who were treated with Shah Grommet tube insertion.

Methods: The Medical records of 162 ears of 87 children (52 male and 35 female) were reviewed respectively, the patients ages wer

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 15 2020
Journal Name
Open Access Macedonian Journal Of Medical Sciences
Iraqi Women with Preeclampsia: Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes
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BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia (PE) is a possible etiology of obstetrical and neonatal complications which are increased in resource-limited settings and developing countries. AIM: We aimed to find out the prevalence of PE in Iraqi ladies and specific outcomes, including gestational weight gain (GWG), cesarean section (CS), preterm delivery (PD), and low birth weight (LBW). METHODS: All singleton pregnant women visiting our tertiary center for delivery were involved over 3 years. PE women were compared with non-PE ladies. Complete history and examination were done during pregnancy and after delivery by the attending obstetrician and neonatologist with full documentation in medical records. RESULTS: PE prevalence was 4.79

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