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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Phoenix dactylifera pollen grains suspension on spermatogenesis and some biochemical parameters in albino rats
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In this study forty mature albino rats were used wich were randomly divided into five groups ,four groups were adminstrated Phoenix dactylifera pollen grains suspension at concertenrations (18,54,108,and 216)mg/ kg body weight by oral administration while the fifth group was considered as a control group.Experiment continued for 40 days then rats were sacrificed and samples of blood were collected for determination of some biochemical parameters (total protein ,total cholesterol ,LDLc and HDLc).Testis were removed for preparation histological sections to measures the diameters of seminferous tubules ,thickness of seminiferous epithelium and the numbers of spermatogenic cells.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Mixed Ligand Schiff Base Complexes of Some Meta(II) Salts: Preparation. Spectral Characterization and Antibacterial Screening
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FH Ghanim, Journal of Global Pharma Technology, 2018

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Chemical Health Risks
Synthesis, Characterization and Study the Biological Activity of Some New Heterocyclic Compounds Derived from Terephthalic Acid
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The organic compound imidazole has the chemical formula C3N2H4. Numerous significant biological compounds contain imidazole. The amino acid histidine is the most prevalent. The substituted imidazole derivatives have great potential for treating a variety of systemic fungi infections. Thiourea is an organosulfur compound with the formula SC(NH2)2. It is a reagent in organic synthesis. In this paper, some new imidazole and thiourea derivatives are synthesized, characterized, and studied for their biological activity. These new compounds were synthesized from the starting material terephthalic acid, which was transformed to corresponding ester [I] by the refluxing of diacid with methanol in the presence of H2SO4 as a catalyst, compound [I] con

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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Проблематика современного значения некоторых устаревших слов The misconception of the modern meaning of some old words
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The dictionary meaning of the word is a linguistic category of the thing in a specific way . it is also a brief description of it .The main function of the concept lies in the total scientific reflection of the things where as the main function of the meaning is a brief reference to a certain content (extralinguistic ) which shows human knowledge .   The meaning is (a storage unit ) of knowledge of the world ,but this does not give the extra linguistic meaning which the old words have . Hence, additional cultural ,ethnic,communicative

and genetic information is needed.

        All the old words which are brought into us

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 22 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research
Synthesis, Characterization and Antibacterial of Some New 4,4'-(pyridine-2,6-diylbis(1,3,4- oxadiazole-5,2-diyl))bisphenolPolymer
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4,4'-(pyridine-2,6-diylbis(1,3,4-oxadiazole-5,2-diyl))bisphenol monomer (3)was synthesized from cyclization of N'2,N'6-bis(4-hydroxybenzylidene)pyridine-2,6-dicarbohydrazide (2)in the presence of bromine in glacialacetic acid. Newly five polymers (P1-P5) were synthesized from reaction bis-1,3,4-oxadiazole bisphenolmonomer with five different di acid chloride. The antibacterial activity of the synthesized polymers was screened against gram positive and gram negative bacteria. Polymers P4 and P5 exhibited significant antibacterial against all microorganisms, as well these polymers showed highest antifungal activity.

Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study the Effects of Annona sp. Extract on Some Physiological Parameters and Fertility in Diabetic Mice
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     The current study was conducted to investigate Annona fruit pulp effects on the levels of various physiological biomarkers linked with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus after disease induction in mice, as well as indications of oxidative stress and male hormones. The rats were separated into four groups, three of which were given Alloxan (90 mg/kg body weight) to induce diabetes, while the fourth served as a negative control. The first group of diabetic mice received no therapy, the second received metformin (600 mg/kg body weight) and the third received Annona fruit puree. The mice were sacrificed at the end of the experiment, to acquire blood and tissue samples from the liver, kidneys and spleen. The first untreated gro

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Disorder Activity of Some Enzymes Plays an Important Role in Pathological Mechanism of Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease
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The aim of this research to show the role of some enzymes in pathological mechanism of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease. Sixty patients with RA and matched number of apparently healthy volunteers were included in the study. Spectrophotometric methods were used to determine Peroxy nitrite (ONOO), Nitric oxide (NO), Nitric oxide synthase activity (NOS) cycloxygenase-2 activity (COX-2), glutathione peroxidase (GPX) activity and superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity in serum of both groups. Colorimetric assay kits were used to determine Iron. Rheumatoid factor (RF) was determined using Imuno-Latex kit. ONOO, NO levels, and NOS activity were significantly higher in the patients compared to the control group. Conversely, Iron level, SOD

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 16 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis, Characterization and Antibacterial Activity of Some New Five-Seven Membered Rings Attached to Sulfonamide Compounds
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   This work includes the  synthesis of some new five- seven heterocyclic rings derived from benzenesulfonylhydrazide as starting material. Its condensation with 4-methoxy and 4nitro benzaldehyde gives the Schiff bases (1a,b). Schiff bases were reacted with cyclic anhydrides given  Oxazepine, Thiazepine derivatives(2,3,4 a,b)(seven membered ring) and with 2-mercapto benzoic acid gives thiazine derivatives (6a,b)(six membered ring) finally with thioglycolic acid give thiazolidine ring(five membered ring) scheme(3). The synthesized compounds have been characterized by melting points,FT-IR, 1H-NMR spectroscopy ,13CNMR and Elemental analysis. some of synthesized  compounds were tested for their antibacterial activity

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Current Research In Microbiology And Biotechnology
Detection of some Physiological and Immunological parameters in Iraqi clinical and subclinical hypothyroid patients: Relationship study
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The present study was performed to evaluate the level of some risk factors (biochemical and immunological) in hypothyroid Iraqi patients considering the different thyroid functional states (hypothyroidism and subclinical hypothyroidism).The study includes 82 patients clinically diagnosed with hypothyroidism. Three study groups have been investigated: (47 clinical hypothyroid patients, 12 subclinical hypothyroid patients 23 healthy individuals) of different ages. This study, show that the proportion of females (83.3 %), (87.2%) in subclinical and clinical hypothyroidisim respectively higher than the proportion of males (16.7%),(12.8%) in subclinical and clinical hypothyrodism respectively of the total patients.The majority of subclinical hyp

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Chemical Health Risks
Preparation, Characterization and Antibacterial Activity of some New Oxazolidin-5-one Derivatives Derived from Imine Compounds
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In this research, 5- membered heterocyclic compounds as oxazolidine-5-one J1-J5 derivatives were prepared using primary aromatic amine, aromatic carbonyl compounds and chloroacetic acid. By combining primary aromatic amines and aromatic carbonyl compounds, Schiff's bases were synthesized. Schiff bases are used with the chloroacetic acid compound to prepare oxazolidine-5-one J1-J5 derivatives. The compounds J1-J5 were described using NMR spectroscopy and FT-IR. .The biological efficacy was evaluated according to maximum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) toward Staphyloccoccus aureus and Esherichia coli. The best MIC was 210 μg ml-1 for J4 against the two pathogenic bacteria, while J1, J4, and J1 did not show any inhibitory effect against all

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