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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 21 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The designed housing projects as an alternative for the informal building and their impact in addressing the heterogeneity of the urban escape in the built residential areas
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The phenomenon of informal building Spread recently in Iraqi residential areas, in general, and in Baghdad, in particular, due to the urgent housing need, on the one hand, and lack of commitment to building controls, on the other hand, to highlight the phenomenon of uncommitted building to controls and housing governing legislation in Iraq, leading to heterogeneity in both building densities and plot areas, and disorder in the urban fabric and urban escape of those areas. Research problem identified as the absence of a clear vision about the General aspects of the phenomenon of informal building in residential street scene, and the role of designed housing projects as a substitute for informal building in built residential areas. The des

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Evaluation Study of the Classroom Activities within the Developed English Course (Flying High) for the High School First- Grade Students in View of Creative Thinking Skills
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The study aims to examine the classroom activities of the developed English course (Flying High) for the high school first-grade students, identify creative thinking skills appropriate for this grade, and show the extent the classroom activities involve these skills from the female- teachers ‘point of view. The study adopted the descriptive survey method. The study community consists of all (50) English female-teachers who teach high school first grade in Arar city during the academic year (1440 -1441 A.H, the first semester). The study was applied to all respondents. The researcher used a questionnaire as a study tool. The study revealed that the female-teachers reported their disagreement and refusal of the classroom activities in th

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Activity- Based Costing technology and its role in Cost Guidance: An Applied Study at the General Company for Textile and Leather Industries - Leather plant - Factory No. (7)
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Iraqi industrial units face strong competition due to many problems including1- high production costs2- weak interest in studying the market3- lack of government support for their products4- dumping the market with imported products with specifications and a competitive price as well as adopting the traditional cost system in calculating costs that do not provide appropriate information for pricing decisions Which requires studying and analyzing these problems and dealing with them by adopting modern technologies so that they can compete, so the research aims to show the knowledge bases of technology Activity- Based Costing, with an indication of the role of technology Activity- Based Costing in rationalizing the tax In, and the

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of measurement and analysis of quality costs on continuous improvement: Applied research in the Directorate General for the distribution of electric power in the Middle Euphrates
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The research aims to identify the theoretical foundations for measuring and analyzing quality costs and continuous improvement, as well as measuring and analyzing quality costs for the Directorate of Electricity Supply / Middle Euphrates and continuous improvement of the distribution of electrical energy,The problem was represented by the high costs of failure and waste in electrical energy result to the excesses on the network and the missing (lost) energy,Thus, measuring and analyzing quality costs for the distribution of electrical energy and identifying continuous improvement leads to a reduction in missing and an increase in sales, as the research reached many conclusions, the most important of which is the high percentage o

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The evolution of the press image in the Iraqi press (An analytical study of the pictures of the first page of Al-Sabah newspaper for the year)
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This research sheds light on the development that has occurred on the use of press pictures in the Iraqi press by analyzing the form and content of the images used in (Al-Sabaah) newspaper for the 2012 model. The researcher's interest in this topic for what represented by the press picture of a way to highlight and attract the reader's attention to the substance journalist who represents the goals behind the newspaper publishing.

This research is divided into three sections. The first one dealt with the methodological framework of the research, and the second part addressed the aspect of press pictures and its history and technological development, while the third section devoted to the study of the development of the form and co

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 30 2016
Journal Name
International Business Management
ESTIMATE OF THE MULTIPLIER EFFECT OF THE MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY ON NON-OIL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN THE IRAQI ECONOMY FOR THE PERIOD OF 1990-2014
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The monetary policy is a vital method used in implementing monetary stability through: the management of income and adjustment of the price (monetary targets) in order to promote stability and growth of real output (non-cash goals); the tool of interest rate and direct investment guides or movement towards the desired destination; and supervisory instruments of monetary policy in both quantitative and qualitative. The latter is very important as a standard compass to investigate the purposes of the movement monetary policy in the economy. The public and businesses were given monetary policy signals by those tools. In fiscal policy, there are specific techniques to follow to do the spending and collection of revenue. This is done in order to

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impacts on profitability ratios: An applied research at the national insurance co. for the period 2004-2014
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The research is trying to identify the investment portfolio risks of the insurance company and their impact, on the Profitability ratios of the company, and whether the company's scientific methods followed in the measurement of these risks, and conducted research in the National Insurance Company. by relying on its annual budget as well as the annual reports, The search dealing with these data in theoretical and practical major premise to statistically significant between to investment portfolio risk and financial performance correlation and reach a set of conclusions and recommendations which are the following.                

investments include many ri

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 24 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Arabic Language Teachers’ Training Needs for Implementing Cognitive Trips Strategy when Teaching Arabic Language Courses in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: أمل ناصر الحربي, و وفاء العويضي
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The present work focuses on examining the strategy of cognitive trips and the Arabic language teachers’ training needs of such a strategy when teaching Arabic language courses in the Saudi Arabia Kingdom. To achieve the objective of the study, and check whether this strategy is used in lesson planning, lesson teaching, or lesson assessment, a descriptive approach and a questionnaire have been adopted. The researchers used a number of statistical tools, and chose a purposive sample, which consists of (58) Arabic language teachers from Saudi Arabia Kingdom. Results have shown that the training needs of Arabic language teachers for implemining the strategy of cognitive journeys while teaching Arabic language courses came in the following

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Problems of Teaching Computer Material Concerning Fourth Grade Students’ Point of View of in the Department of Computer College of Education for Women / University of Baghdad
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The aim of the research is to identify the problems of teaching computer material concerning fourth grade students’ point of view in the computer department in the College of Education for Women by identifying the statistically significant differences between the answers of female students to problems in the field of school administration and in the field of teaching computer subject included the sample of research On (39) of (50) students and (78%) From the fourth grade students in the department of computer who had achieved the theoretical part in the first semester and the assembly application in the second semester in the schools of Baghdad city for the aca

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 10 2024
Journal Name
Annals Of Applied Sport Science
The Effect of an Electronic Device Designed to Measure the Knee Bending Angle in Developing the Skill of Catch and Clearance the High Ball for Football Goalkeepers
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Background. The use of modern aids and technology has contributed greatly to football development, the goalkeeper is the most important position in the team, and the use of devices gave objective readings about the goalkeeper's ability in terms of skill and physical aspects. Objectives. The research aimed to prepare exercises using an electronic device to measure the knee bending angle because of its great importance in developing the skill of catching and dimensions of the high ball for football goalkeepers. Methods. The researchers used the experimental method, and the sample consisted of (4) male goalkeepers under 15 years of age, one of the research procedures was to determine the biomechanical variables affecting the development of the

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