Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis The Consistency Between The Tariff And The Exchange Rate And Their Reflection On The Trade Balance In Iraq
...Show More Authors

       The trade balance is considered as a way to join the national economy with the world, So it is the mirror that reflect the economic center of the country and it is point to competitive ability of it, The tariff and the exchange rate perform a great role to motivate the domestic production and improve the trade balance if we direct them to achieve the same purpose. The Iraqi economic has trade balance which achieve overabundant during the years of studying because of the oil exports, while the other exports represent a small percentage it is hardly remember, and expansion in imports from other side causes exhaustion in oil revenues, and this make the trade balance in permanent

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The extent of adopting a number of green processing chain management activities in industrial companies An analytical study behind a sample of workers in Kirkuk Cement Factory
...Show More Authors

The research is based on the basic idea that companies today are moving towards a new trend towards protecting the environment coupled with the increasing wareness of the pollution damage caused by these companies due to their operations and activities in the environment. The two main reasons that led the researchers to choose this subject is the need to adapt the companies themselves in response to successive developments, The great development was that companies moved from the sole economic responsibility of the business to social responsibility by emphasizing socially responsible profit. The problem of research is the knowledge of the availability of the dimensions of the green processing series in Kirkuk Cement Factory The re

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis and Characterization of some Metal Complexes with (3Z ,5Z, 8Z)-2-azido-8-[azido(3Z,5Z)-2-azido-2,6bis(azidocarbonyl)-8,9-dihydro-2H-1,7-dioxa-3,4,5triazonine-9-yl]methyl]-9-[(1-azido-1-hydroxy)methyl]-2H1,7-dioxa-3,4,5-triazonine – 2,6 – dica
...Show More Authors

  The reaction of LAs-Cl8 : [ (2,2- (1-(3,4-bis(carboxylicdichloromethoxy)-5-oxo-2,5dihydrofuran-2-yl)ethane – 1,2-diyl)bis(2,2-dichloroacetic acid)]with sodium azide in ethanol with drops of distilled water has been investigated . The new product L-AZ :(3Z ,5Z,8Z)-2azido-8-[azido(3Z,5Z)-2-azido-2,6-bis(azidocarbonyl)-8,9-dihydro-2H-1,7-dioxa-3,4,5triazonine-9-yl]methyl]-9-[(1-azido-1-hydroxy)methyl]-2H-1,7-dioxa-3,4,5-triazonine – 2,6 – dicarbonylazide was isolated and characterized by elemental analysis (C.H.N) , 1H-NMR , Mass spectrum and Fourier transform infrared spectrophotometer (FT-IR) . The reaction of the L-AZ withM+n: [ ( VO(II) , Cr(III)  ,Mn(II) , Co(II) , Ni(II) , Cu(II) , Zn(II) , Cd(II) and

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
RETRIEVING DOCUMENT WITH COMPACT GENETIC ALGORITHM(CGA)
...Show More Authors

Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr
Interaction of Alpha Particles with Breast Tissue
...Show More Authors

As modern radiotherapy technology advances, radiation dose and dose distribution have improved significantly. As part of a natural evolution, there has recently been renewed interest in therapy, particularly in the use of heavy charged particles, because these types of radiation serve theoretical advantages in all biological and physical aspects. The interactions of alpha particle with matter were studied and the stopping powers of alpha particle with Breast Tissue were calculated by using Beth-Bloch equation, Zeigler's formula and SRIM software, also the Range and Liner Energy Transfer (LET) and Breast Thickness As well as Dose and Dose equivalent for this particle were calculated by using Mat lab language for (0.01-200) MeV alpha ene

... Show More
Publication Date
Mon Feb 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Pure And Applied Microbiology
Microbiological Identification of Bacteria with Leukemic Children
...Show More Authors

The most common form of childhood cancer is leukemia, Calculation for more than one third of all childhood cancers among those ages 1 day – 14 years. The diseases of leukemia are worldwide, it occurred in both genders from male and females and in all age. A total of 80 different samples of patient children were collected from the central teaching hospital of pediatric in Baghdad. Obtained during the period from 1st Sept. 2019 till the 31 th of Aug. 2020. Each isolates identification by using Vitek 2. Isolated organism in leukemic children show 18 (22.5 %) gram positive and 62 (77.5 %) gram negative from the total sample 80 (100.0 %). The percent of male is 45 more than female which represents 35 in most age groups between age (1 d

... Show More
View Publication
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Apr 20 2022
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Loc-hollow Fuzzy Modules with Related Modules
...Show More Authors

     The concept of a small f- subm was presented in a previous study. This work introduced a concept of a hollow f- module, where a module is said to be hollow fuzzy when every subm of it is a small f- subm. Some new types of hollow modules are provided namely, Loc- hollow f- modules as a strength of the hollow module, where every Loc- hollow f- module is a hollow module, but the converse is not true. Many properties and characterizations of these concepts are proved, also the relationship between all these types is researched. Many important results that explain this relationship are demonstrated also several characterizations and properties related to these concepts are given.

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Nov 04 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Patients’ Compliance with Essential Hypertension
...Show More Authors

Objective:
This study aims to asses the patients' compliance with essential hypertension in respect to antihypertensive
medications, follow-up, dietary pattern and health habits, to identify the associated long-term complications, and
to find out the relationship between patient's compliance, and demographic characteristics such as age, gender,
level of education, and duration of disease.
Methodology:
A descriptive study was carried out in Nasiriyah Teaching Hospital to achieve presented objectives .
Results:
The results of the study revealed that there were a significant association between educational level and total
patient's compliance, a significant association was found between the duration of disease and

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Transportation movement with containers in Iraqi harbors
...Show More Authors

The use of containers in transportation leads to the reduction in time and effort of the process of loading and unloading of goods as well as protecting the goods from damage and breakage and to reduce the financial costs.
. This development has led also to make changes in the sizes and capacity of ships, therefore changes in the ports must be taken place where they must be provided with an appropriate depth for such vessels, that means the increase in the depth of ports and the establishment of wide storage yards and to provide appropriate mechanisms for handling process.
In this study, the researcher has dealt with this type of transport business in Iraqi ports, namely:
1- Khur Al-Zubair port.
2- Um Qaser port.
In order

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hyperprolactenemia in Women with Systemic Lupus Erythematusus
...Show More Authors

Recent accumulated evidences suggest that prolactin is an important immunomodulator and may have a role in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The aim of this study was to assess the frequency of hyperprolactinemia in women with SLE and to evaluate its correlation with disease flares. Serum prolactin levels were measured in 62 women with SLE and 50 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. In patients and control groups prolactin levels were determined by immunoradiometric assay (IRMA). The prolactin level was found to be higher than normal rang in (40.3%) of SLE patients in active stage versus only (8.06%) of the same SLE patients but in the inactive stage and in (4%) of control group, the elevation was ranging between mi

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref