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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Seed weight effect on germination properties and seedling growth of some cultivars of lupine
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A laboratory experiment was carried out and repeated at field of College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad in 2017. First factor was three cultivars of lupine 'Giza-1', 'Giza-2' and 'Hamburg'. Second factor was three seed weights (lower weight, medium weight and higher weight) which was following the cultivars factor. Nested design was used. Results showed supremacy of 'Giza-1' cultivar significantly and gave higher germination ratio, radical length, seedling dry weight, seedling vigour index, field emergence ratio, plant height and number of leaves per plant. The treatment ('Giza-1'×higher seed weight) was supremacy significantly and gave higher germination ratio, radical length, plumule length, and seedling vigo

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Synthesis, Characterization and Study Biological Activity of Some New Compounds Derived From Phthalic Anhydride
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In this research , phthallic anhydride ring is opened with 4-methyl aniline and acetone as a solvent to results the compound [I] that reacted with dimethyl sulphate and anhydrous sodium carbonate formation to phathalate ester [II], while the acid hydrazide compound [III], was obtained from mixed the compound [II]with hydrazine hydrate, Synthesis four type of shiff bases[IV]a-d was synthesized from the reaction of acid hydrazide [III] with aromatic aldehyde or ketone , when reacted Shiff bases with phthalic anhydride or naphthalicanhydride,I get eight derivatives of oxazepine [V]a-d , [VI]a-d. The bacterial activity of the new compounds studied by four species of bacteria: Esherichia Coli, Enterobactecloacae (Gram negative) and staphylococcu

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
The effect of using polyolefin fiber on some properties of slurry-infiltrated fibrous concrete
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Abstract<p>Slurry-infiltrated fibrous concrete (SIFCON) is a special type of concrete that has great strength, as well as high ductility. However, the unit weight is high, which exceeds the unit weight of fiber-reinforced concrete, because of the high fiber content. This research aims to verify the compressive and flexural strength, as well as the density of SIFCON when using two different fibers (steel and polyolefin). Sometimes mono type of fiber steel or polyolefin, sometimes by hybridizing two types of fiber steel + polyplefin. Volume fraction (6% for all species) was used. Hook-end steel fiber and polyolefin fiber are used. With hybridization, a total volume fraction of 6% was used, which </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the Nuclear Structure of Some Even-Even Ca Isotopes Using the Microscopic Theory
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The root-mean square-radius of proton, neutron, matter and charge radii, energy level, inelastic longitudinal form factors, reduced transition probability from the ground state to first-excited 2+ state of even-even isotopes, quadrupole moments, quadrupole deformation parameter, and the occupation numbers for some calcium isotopes for A=42,44,46,48,50 are computed using fp-model space and FPBM interaction. 40Ca nucleus is regarded as the inert core for all isotopes under this model space with valence nucleons are moving throughout the fp-shell model space involving 1f7/2, 2p3/2, 1f5/2, and 2p1/2 orbits. Model space is used to present calculations using FPBM intera

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
The effect of some herbicides on the companion weed to three cultivars of oats
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A field experiment was carried out to find out the effect of some herbicides(Pallas, Crash, U46) on the companion weed to three cultivars of the oat crop (Shefa, Hamel, and Pimula) and the yield and its components of these cultivars. The results showed the superiority of the two treatments of spraying weed herbicides (T1 and T2 ) by giving the best results, as they recorded the lowest number of weed plants after 30 days of spraying reached 1.44 and 1.67 plant/m2 . Besides, the lowest weed dry weight was 0.11 and 0.00 g/m2, and the highest inhibition percentage in dry weight was 98.44% and 100.0% of the two treatments, respectively. The treatment T2 was also superior by giving the highest control percentage of 93.28% compared to the compari

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 05 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Antibacterial activity of ginger extracts and its essential oil on some of pathogenic bacteria
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The antimicrobial activity of ginger extracts ( cold-water, hot-water, ethanolic and essential oil ) against some of pathogenic bacteria ( Escherichia coli , Salmonella sp , Klebsiella sp , Serratia marcescens, Vibrio cholerae , Staphylococcus aureus , Streptococcus sp) was investigated using Disc diffusion method , and the results were compared with the antimicrobial activity of 12 antibiotics on the same bacteria . The results showed that the ginger extracts were more effective on gram-positive bacteria than gram-negative . V. cholerae and S. marcescens,were the most resistant bacteria to the extracts used , while highest inhibition was noticed against Streptococcus sp (28 mm) . The ethanolic extract showed the broadest antibacterial ac

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Searching Ground State Properties of some Light Proton-Rich Nuclei Using Whittaker Wave Functions
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Abstract<p>In this work, the Whittaker wave functions were used to study the nuclear density distributions and elastic electron scattering charge form factors for proton-rich nuclei and their corresponding stable nuclei (<sup>10,8</sup>B, <sup>13,9</sup>C, <sup>14,12</sup>N and <sup>19,17</sup>F). The parameters of Whittaker’s basis were fixed to generate the experimental values of available size radii. The Whittaker basis was connected to harmonic-oscillator basis through boundary condition at match point. The nuclear shell model was opted with pure configuration for all studied nuclei to compute aforementioned studied quantities except <sup>10</sup></p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Int. J. Nonlinear Anal. Appl.
A topology on a ring part of is-algebra
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Counseling Needs of Behavioral Problems among Students with Academic Learning Disabilities
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Learning Disabilities are described as a hidden and puzzling disability. Children with these difficulties have the potential to hide weaknesses in their performance because they are a homogenous group of disorders that consist of obvious difficulties in acquiring and using reading, writing, Mathematical inference. Thus, the research aims to identify the disabilities of academic learning in (reading, writing, mathematics), identify the problems of behavior (general, motor, social). Identify the relationship among behaviour problems. The research also aims to identify the counseling needs to reduce the behavioral problems. The researcher adopted the analytical descriptive method by preparing two main tools for measuring learning disabiliti

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
استخدام البرمجة الديناميكية في حل انموذج المعاينة الدورية الثابته لمشكلة الخزين مع تطبيق عملي في شركة الاقصى التجارية لاستيراد المولدات
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The purpose of this paper is use the Dynamic Programming to solve a deterministic periodic review model for inventory problem and then to find the optimal policies that the company must uses in the purchase or production  (in the practical application example the Al Aksa company purchase the generators from out side country).

 

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