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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Microstructure and Some Properties of Aluminum-Silicon Matrix Composites Reinforced by Alumina or Chromia
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In this work, yttrium oxide particles (powder) reinforced AL-Si matrix composites (Y2O3/Al-Si) and Chromium oxide particles reinforced AL-Si matrix composites (Cr2O3/AL-Si) were prepared by direct squeeze casting. The volume percentages of yttrium oxide used are (4, 8.1, 12.1, 16.1 vol %) and the volume percentages of the chromium oxide particles used are (3.1, 6.3, 9.4, 12.5 vol. %). The parameters affecting the preparation of Y2O3/Al-Si and Cr2O3/AL-Si composites by direct squeeze casting process were studied. The molten Al-Si alloy with yttrium oxide particles or with chromium oxide particles was stirred again using an electrical stirrer at speed 500 rpm  and the molten alloy was  poured  into the squeeze die cavity. Th

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 12 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Effect of Some of the Criteria of the Efficiency of House Fly Traps
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  The study revealed to the efficiency of some stick traps included standard Williams sticky trap with three modified forms of them, Ribbed cylindrical williams trap , pyramid williams trap and flat williams trap in catching of the house flies in a horsesØŒ stables. The results  showed slight differences between standard Williams traps and Ribbed cylindrical williams trap. On the other hand, there was significant difference between all modified forms of traps in mean number catch of house flies which reached to 597.6, 363.3 and 155.6 fly/ trap, for Ribbed cylindrical williams trap, pyramid williams trap,  flat sticky trap respectively. As for the experience of the effect of color types;  yellow, white, blue and red

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Synthesis, Characterization, Antibacterial and Antifungal Activity of Some Bis (1, 3, 4-oxadiazole) Polymer
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Pyridine-2, 6-dicarbohydrazide comp (2) was synthesized from ethanolic solution of diethyl pyridine-2, 6- dicarboxylate comp (1) with excess of hydrazine hydrate. Newly five polymers (P1-P5) were synthesized from reaction of pyridine-2, 6-dicarbohydrazide comp (2) with five different di carboxylic acid in the presence of poly phosphoric acid (PPA). The antibacterial activity of the synthesized polymers was screened against some gram positive and gram negative bacteria. Antifungal activity of these polymers was evaluated in vitro against some yeast like fungi such as albicans (candida albicans). Polymers P3, P4 and P5 exhibited highest antibacterial and antifungal against all microorganisms under test.

Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Kerbala University
Synthesis And Biological Activity Of Some New Compounds Containing 1,2,4-Triazole And Their Derivatives
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Condensation of 1,2- dibromo ethane with para hydroxy benzoic acid gave 1,2-Ethane-bis- 4-oxybenzoic [1]. This Compound was converted with the thionyl chloride to give 1,2-Ethane-bis- 4-oxybenzoyl chloride [2]. Reaction of compound [2] with thiosemicarbizades gave 1,2-Ethanebis[4-oxybenzoyl-thiosemicarbazide] [3] and opteined 1,2-Ethane-bis[3-mercapto-5-phenoxy- 1,2,4-triazole] [4] from treatment compound [3] with NaOH (4%) .The new compounds 1,2- Ethane-bis[3-(substituted thioacyl)-4-(substituted acyl)-5 phenoxy-1,2,4-triazole] [5a-d] and 1,2- Ethane-bis[3-(substituted alkylthio)-5 phenoxy-1,2,4-trizole] [5e-f] derived from compound [4] were synthesized and characterized by physical and spectral data. All the compounds [4], [5a-d] and [5e-

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 14 2006
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
[PDF] من iasj.net Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Transition Metal Complexes of Amino
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الوصف New complexes of Cu (ll), Ni (II)„Co (II), and Zn (ll) with 2-amino-5-p-Flouro Phenyl 1, 3, 4-Thiadiazole have been synthesized. The products were isolated, studied and characterized by physical measurements, ie,(FT-IR)„UV-Vis and the melting points were determined. The new Schiff base (L) has been used to prepare some complexes. The prepared complexes were identified and their structural geometry were suggested

Publication Date
Sun May 05 2013
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Science
The Effect Of Aqueous Extract Of Anastatica Hierochuntica On Some Hormones In Mouse Females
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Anastatica hierochuntica is believed to be very useful in Arab countries for treating various health disorders. The aqueous extract of Anastatica hierochuntica was investigated for its effects on hormones in mice females. the aqueous extract of plant at a dose level of 100mg/1mL showed significant increase (p<0.05) on levels of hormones LH, FSH, PRL level and PRO level. Clomid treated group showd significant increase in LH, FSH, and PRL while there was non-significant increase in PRO. From the above results, it is concluded for the first time that aqueous Anastatica hierchuntica extract offers significant effect of LH, FSH, PRL, and PRO in this mice females scompared with control.

Publication Date
Tue Jul 15 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Using dynamic Fuzzy programming to control the storage of some Department of Commerce stores
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In this research was to use the method of classic dynamic programming (CDP) and the method of fuzzy dynamic programming (FDP) to controlling the inventory in N periods and only one substance ,in order to minimize the total cost and determining the required quantity in warehouse rusafa principal of the ministry of commerce . A comparison was made between the two techniques، We found that the value of fuzzy total cost is less than that the value of classic total cost

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Comparison among the Synthesis of Some Azomethine Derivatives by Classical and Non-classical Methods
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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
some Chemical effects on growth of azotobacter chroococcum wild-type and it's mutant-44
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the effecth of some chemicals on growth of two azotobacter chroococcum and aniline caused significant increase of growth

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 15 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of silver nitrate incorporation into heat polymerized acrylic resin on some mechanical properties
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Background: Polymers are very rarely used in their form. These modifications are carried out in order to improve the properties of polymers.Recently silver have been used successfully as antimicrobial (medical and dental) biomaterials that can prevent caries and infection of implants Purposes: The aim of the present in vitro study is to evaluate the effect of addition of silver nitrate to acrylic resin in different concentrationsthrough several tests part of these are: The effect of this additive on impact strength, transverse strength, and tensile strength of AgNO3 – loaded resin, and to assess any effect of addition of silver nitrate on coloration of acrylic resin. Materials and methods: Different concentrations of silver nitrate

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