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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 30 2022
Journal Name
Pakistan Journal Of Medical & Health Sciences
Measuring the Concentrations of Asbestos Fibers in Some Crowded Areas of Baghdad in The Summer of 2020
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Aims of this research to determine asbestos fibers levels in surrounding air of some crowded sites of Baghdad city were monitored in summer 2020. Collection of samples was conducted by directing air flow to a mixed cellulose ester membrane filter mounted on an open‑faced filter holder using sniffer a low flow sampling pump, samples of air were collected from five studied areas selected in some heavy traffic areas of Baghdad city, (Al-Bayaa and Al-Shurta tunnel, Al-Jadriya, and Al-Meshin commercial complex, control), then analyzed to determine concentrations of asbestos fibers. Counting of asbestos on the filters was carried out through using both scanning electron microscope SEM and an energy dispersive X‑ray system EDS to count

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Compound Exercises Using Added Relative Weights On Some Physical Abilities In Young Soccer Players
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of some agronomic technical in morphologe traits, yield compound and oil of rape seed c.v. pactol
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A field trial was conducted at Abu-Ghraib research station , Baghdad , Iraq . The objectives were to study the effect of nitrogen fertilizer and planting space on the performance of rape seed. A split-plot in a randomized complete of block design with three replications were used. Five levels of nitrogen fertilizer ( 120,160,200,240,280 Kg / ha ) were assigned to main plots, where as planting space in sub-plots. The result obtained confirmed that 280,240 kg / ha nitrogen maximized seed yield 1.830 , 1.773 ton/ha, oil yield,0.843,0.824 ton/ha .Results showed that planting space 30 cm produced the highest seed yield 1.90 ton / ha and oil yield , 0.884 ton / ha . Interactions between nitrogen fertilizer and p

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 28 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Synthesis, Structure Determination and Biological Study of Some Complexes of New Ligand Derived from L-ascorbic Acid
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2,2'-(1-(3,4-bis(carboxydichloromethoxy)-5-oxo-2,5-dihydrofuran-2-yl)ethane-1,2-diyl)bis(oxy)bis(2,2-dichloroacetic acid) a derivative of L-ascorbic acid was prepared by reaction of L-ascorbic acid with trichloroacetic acid (1:4) ratio, in the presence of potassium hydroxide. A series of new metal complexes of this ligand were prepared by a reaction with the chlorides of Cd(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II). The new ligand and its complexes were identified by C.H.N., IR, UV-visible spectra, Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), as well as 1H, 13C-NMR and Mass spectra for ligand L. The complexes were also identified by molar conductance, atomic absorption, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray diffraction for Cu (II) complex. FT-IR spectra

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the effect by CO2 laser on some optical properties of (Cd) thin film doping by Ni
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In this research study the effect of irradiation by (CW) CO2 laser on some optical properties of (Cds) doping by Ni thin films of (1)µm thickness has been prepared by heat evaporation method. (X-Ray) diffraction technique showed the prepared films before and after irradiation are ploy crystalline hexagonal structure, optical properties were include recording of absorbance spectra for prepared films in the range of (400-1000) nm wave lengths, the absorption coefficient and the energy gap were calculated before and after irradiation, finally the irradiation affected (CdS) thin films by changing its color from the Transparent yellow to dark rough yellow and decrease the value absorption coefficient also increase the value of energy gap.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Synthesis and Diagnosis of Some Derivatives of 1,2,4-Triazole-3-Dicarboxylic Acid and Study their Biological Activity
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Newly prepared derivatives of Heterocyclic of dicarboxylic acid include 1, 2, 4-Triazoledicarboxylic acid. Thiocarbohydrazine (TCH) reacts with aliphatic and aromatic dicarboxylic acids, and when these resulting compounds interact with compounds containing a group of carbonyl they result in Schiff base, which are very important in the industrial and medical fields and the acids used (oxalic acid, succinic, terephthalic) to prepare the triazole, then the reaction with Para-chlorobenzendihaide. and some physical properties were measured for these products. The biological activity of the prepared compounds has been studied, and it has been shown that they have different effects on the bacteria, compounds prepared with Fourier Transform Infrare

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Jour. For Pure & Appl. Sci.
Synthesis And Characterization Of Some New Metal Complexes Of Ethyl Cyano (2-Methyl Carboxylate Phenyl Azo Acetate)
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Complexes of (Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+, Cd2+ and Hg2+) with the ligand Ethyl cyano (2-methyl carboxylate phenyl azo acetate) (ECA) have been prepared and characterized by FTIR, (UV-Visible), Atomic absorption spectroscopy, Molar conductivity measurements and magnetic moments measurements. The following general formula has been suggested for the prepared complexes [M(ECA)2]Cl2 where M = (Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+ ,Zn2+, Cd2+, Hg2+) and the geometry is octahedral.

Publication Date
Mon Dec 21 2020
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
SEASONAL FLUCTUATION OF STINK BUG MUSTHA SPINULOSA (LEFEBVRE, 1831) (HEMIPTERA, PENTATOMIDAE) ON SOME TREES IN ERBIL CITY
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Phytophagous stink bugs (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae) are economically important insect pests of fruit, vegetable, nut and field crops. This study was carried out during the season of 2013 in orchards within Erbil city, to follow the stink bug Mustha spinulosa (Lefebvre, 1831) seasonal fluctuation on some fruit trees: olive, plum, apricot, pear, apple and almond.
The stink bug reaches its maximum abundance throughout the second week of August (38.2/tree) coinciding with mean temperature and relative humidity of 33.40C and 28.14% respectively, and the highest total mean of the number of the insect was recorded on the olive trees (181.8/tree). The study reveals that the stink bug attacked 22 trees (fruit and forest) while it has not atta

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining the Mobility of some Essential Elements in Saffron (Crocus sativus L.) by the Neutron Activation Analysis
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The main purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the concentrations of six essential metals (Na+, Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, Fe2+ and Zn2+) in saffron and a farm soil using the neutron activation analysis (NAA) as a nuclear spectrometry method. The stratified random sampling method was used here. The NAA results showed the well uptake of Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, Fe2+, and Zn2+ in saffron, which is lower than the toxicity range. Based on the contamination factor and geoaccumulation index, soil contamination levels were determined uncontaminated by Zn, moderately contaminated by Na+ and Fe2+, and strongly contamin

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 25 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry Analysis of Heavy Metals in Some Food Additives Available in Baghdad Markets, Iraq
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