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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Investigation of density and form factor of some F isotopes using Hartree-Fock and shell model calculations
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Structure of unstable 21,23,25,26F nuclei have been investigated
using Hartree – Fock (HF) and shell model calculations. The ground
state proton, neutron and matter density distributions, root mean
square (rms) radii and neutron skin thickness of these isotopes are
studied. Shell model calculations are performed using SDBA
interaction. In HF method the selected effective nuclear interactions,
namely the Skyrme parameterizations SLy4, Skeσ, SkBsk9 and
Skxs25 are used. Also, the elastic electron scattering form factors of
these isotopes are studied. The calculated form factors in HF
calculations show many diffraction minima in contrary to shell
model, which predicts less diffraction minima. The long tail

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The expansion of granting bank credit and its impact on the financial position of some Iraqi banks
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Abstract

                   The study aimed to identify the expansion in granting credit to Iraqi banking institutions and its impact on the financial position of Iraqi banks in terms of revenues, profits, expenses and property rights in banks, as the expansion in granting bank credit will correspond to an increase or decrease in some items of the balance sheet and the financial position of banks, so the problem of the current study It will be determined through whether the expansion of granting bank credit will affect the financial position of Iraqi banks or not by studying the selected research community of the 10 Iraqi banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, The research sample included the u

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Some Remineralization Materials and Resin Infiltration (ICON) on the Depth of White Spot Lesions
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Background: White spot lesions (WSLs) are subsurface enamel demineralization manifested as white opacities which had an esthetic problem. The purpose of this in-vitro study was to evaluate the lesion depth improvement of WSLs following application of fluoride varnish, tooth mousse and resin infiltration (ICON). Materials and methods: Artificial WSLs were created on 120 premolar teeth using demineralization solution with pH (4-4.5). Samples randomly allocated into four groups; fluoride varnish, tooth mousse, ICON and untreated group. Groups were discolored in Cola and orange juice for 24 hours. Teeth were ground sectioned by longitudinal cutting then these sections examined and photographed under stereomicroscope at 12X magnification then an

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archive
Irrigation intervals affect dhn1 expression and some physiological parameters in stay green and non-stay-green sorghum
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
International Workshop In Physics Applications
Antifungal activity of wide band gap Thioglycolic acid capped ZnS:Mn semiconductor nanoparticles against some pathogenic fungi(Article)
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The manganese doped zinc sulfide nanoparticles were synthesized by simple aqueous chemical reaction of manganese chloride, zinc acetate and thioacitamide in aqueous solution. Thioglycolic acid is used as capping agent for controlling the nanoparticle size. The main advantage of the ZnS:Mn nanoparticles of diameter ~ 2.73 nm is that the sample is prepared by using non-toxic precursors in a cost effective and eco-friendly way. The structural, morphological and chemical composition of the nanoparticles have been investigated by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersion spectroscopy (EDS) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The nanosize of the prepared nanoparticles was elucidated by Scan

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Pure And Applied Microbiology
The Effect of Polyester Fibers Addition on Some Mechanical Properties of Room Temperature Vulcanized Maxillofacial Silicon Elastomers
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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry Analysis of Heavy Metals in Some Food Additives Available in Baghdad Markets, Iraq
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Flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer (FAAS) was used in this study to determine the concentrations of heavy metals such as Ca, Fe, Mn, Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, Cu, Pb and Zn in some food additives of Iraq. The order of metal contents in food additives was found to be Ca ˃ Mn ˃ Fe ˃ Cu ˃ Zn ˃ Pb ˃ Cr ˃ Ni ˃ Co ˃ Cd. The concentration level of each metal was compared with that recommended by food agriculture organisation (FAO) and world health organisation (WHO). Calibration curves were linear for all standard solutions of heavy metals in the range starting from 0.02-0.4 mg/kg for Cd to 11-100 mg/kg for Ca. The correlation coefficients values (R2) of calibrations were investigated and ranged from 0.9971 for Cr to 0.9999 for Ca. Th

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Scopus
Publication Date
Fri Dec 20 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences
Genetic Polymorphisms at TNF-Alpha Receptors Associated some Autoimmune Diseases and Response of Anti-TNF Biologics: Review
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Some genetic factors are not only involved in some autoimmune diseases but also interfere with their treatment, Such as Crohn's disease (CD), Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), and psoriasis (PS). Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) is a most important pro-inflammatory cytokine, which has been recognized as a main factor that participates in the pathogenesis and development of autoimmune disorders. Therefore, TNF could be a prospective target for treating these disorders, and many anti-TNF were developed to treat these disorders. Although the high efficacy of many anti-TNF biologic medications, the Patients' clinical responses to the autoimmune treatment showed significant heterogeneity. Two types of TNF receptor (TNFR); 1 an

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesizing, Characterizing and Studying the Biological Activity of Some New Schiff-Bases Derivatives Containing the Monosaccharide Moiety
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A new series of ?-D-glucose as Schiff bases derivatives is synthesized and characterized with studying their bioactivity. Hydroxyl groups at C (1,2&5,6) sugar moiety are converted into acetal form through a reaction with dry acetone using phosphoric acid and anhydrous zinc chloride as catalysts producing 1,2:5,6-di-O-isopropyledine ?-D-glucofuranose(I). The five memberd ring acetal of C(5,6) is hydrolyzed with acetic acid (65%)and a reaction of the new product with sodium periodate is carried on to get an aldehyde moiety which is used to produce a new series of Schiff bases through reacting with different amino compounds such as 4-amino antipyrene . The suggested chemical structures of the prepared compounds are confirmed by using UV., FT

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Some Properties of Mortar and Concrete Using Brick, Glass and Tile Waste as Partial Replacement of Cement
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The using of waste products as a recycled material was one of the most important studies for saving money and reduces the pollution. Mortar and concrete mixes with (10, 20 and 30)% of brick, glass and tile powder as replacement by weight of cement was investigated. The concrete mixes using brick or glass as 10%replacement of cement exhibited enhancement in compressive strength about (6, 4.7 and 2.0)% and (7.2, 5.6 and 2)% at age 7, 28 and 90 days respectively compared to reference mix. The 20% replacement of glass powder also showed an increase in the compressive strength up to (8, 6.3 and 4) %at age 7,28 and 90 days respectively compared to reference mix. Finally concrete mix using (10, 20 and 30) % tile powder as replacement of cement sho

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