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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Potential of some Plant Extracts as Radical Scavengers and Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitors
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Seeds, beans, leaves, fruit peel and seeds of five plants (Ferula assa-foetida, Coffea robusta, Olea europaea, Punica granatum and Vitis vinifera, respectively) were extracted with four solvents (distilled water, 80% methanol, 80% acetone and a mixed solvent that included methanol, ethanol, acetone and n-butanol at proportions 7:1:1:1). Such manipulation yielded 20 extracts, which were phytochemically analyzed for total polyphenols (TP) and flavonoids (TF). The DPPH (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging activity (RSA) and DPP-4 (dipeptidyl peptidase-4) relative inhibition activity (RIA) were also assessed for each extract. The results revealed that mixed solvent extract of V.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 17 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Extraction Behaviour of Dioctylamine and Tricaprylamine Toward Uranium and Some of the Metal Ins
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 The extraction behaviour of a secondary amine (Dioctylamine) and a combination of secondary amine and tertiary amine (Tricapryl amine) toward some of the metal ions were investigated. Two types of diluents were applied, namely, mesitylene and treated Kerosene fraction. The extractability of dioctylamine and different combinations of tertiary amine and secondary amine toward uranium were investigated. The distribution coefficients and the separataion factors of uranium from the metal ions were calculated.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
The effect of using polyolefin fiber on some properties of slurry-infiltrated fibrous concrete
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Abstract<p>Slurry-infiltrated fibrous concrete (SIFCON) is a special type of concrete that has great strength, as well as high ductility. However, the unit weight is high, which exceeds the unit weight of fiber-reinforced concrete, because of the high fiber content. This research aims to verify the compressive and flexural strength, as well as the density of SIFCON when using two different fibers (steel and polyolefin). Sometimes mono type of fiber steel or polyolefin, sometimes by hybridizing two types of fiber steel + polyplefin. Volume fraction (6% for all species) was used. Hook-end steel fiber and polyolefin fiber are used. With hybridization, a total volume fraction of 6% was used, which </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the Nuclear Structure of Some Even-Even Ca Isotopes Using the Microscopic Theory
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The root-mean square-radius of proton, neutron, matter and charge radii, energy level, inelastic longitudinal form factors, reduced transition probability from the ground state to first-excited 2+ state of even-even isotopes, quadrupole moments, quadrupole deformation parameter, and the occupation numbers for some calcium isotopes for A=42,44,46,48,50 are computed using fp-model space and FPBM interaction. 40Ca nucleus is regarded as the inert core for all isotopes under this model space with valence nucleons are moving throughout the fp-shell model space involving 1f7/2, 2p3/2, 1f5/2, and 2p1/2 orbits. Model space is used to present calculations using FPBM intera

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Global Pharma Technology
Synthesis, Characterization and Study Biological Activity of Some New Compounds Derived From Phthalic Anhydride
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In this research , phthallic anhydride ring is opened with 4-methyl aniline and acetone as a solvent to results the compound [I] that reacted with dimethyl sulphate and anhydrous sodium carbonate formation to phathalate ester [II], while the acid hydrazide compound [III], was obtained from mixed the compound [II]with hydrazine hydrate, Synthesis four type of shiff bases[IV]a-d was synthesized from the reaction of acid hydrazide [III] with aromatic aldehyde or ketone , when reacted Shiff bases with phthalic anhydride or naphthalicanhydride,I get eight derivatives of oxazepine [V]a-d , [VI]a-d. The bacterial activity of the new compounds studied by four species of bacteria: Esherichia Coli, Enterobactecloacae (Gram negative) and staphylococcu

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 20 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Study of Some physical and chemical properties of sand dune of lower Mesopotamian Plain
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This investigation was conducted to examine some physical and chemical properties of sand dunes collected from Basrah (1 '2 and 3) 'Nassiriya (4 and 5) and Amara (6) provinces that situated in lower Mesopotamia plain.

 

The results indicate clearly that the dominant particles in the samples were sand that were ranging from (81) % to (97) %, however the aggregated size of (0.1 - 0.25) mm were predominates in the investigated sand dunes of the region . Also the study shows that the content of the organic matter and potassium ions were very low (0.1- 0.4% '0.02 -0.22 meq I 100 gm soil. Further more the current result shows high a percentage of calcium carbonate (20.3 - 42.5%). In addition, the study has found a

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Effect of adding Biohealth, zeolite and mineral fertilizer on some measurements of potato yield
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To know the effect of bio-enhancer (zeolite), biohealth, mineral fertilizers and their interactions, the possibility of replacing mineral fertilizers with bio-enhancers and bio-enhancers, and their effect on some potato yield measurements. A field experiment was conducted at one of the field stations of the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Baghdad, near the electronic calculator center, research station (F) in Al-Jadriya region in the loam mixture soil during autumn season 2021-2022 AD, It was designed using a completely randomized block design (RCBD) with three replicates. The factors of the study experiment included three levels of zeolite (0, 6 tons ha-1, and 12 tons ha-1), which were symbolized by (Z0)

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Some Properties of Polymer Modified Self-Compacting Concrete Exposed to Kerosene and Gas Oil
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This thesis aims to study the effect of addition polymer materials on mechanical properties of self-compacting concrete, and also to assess the influence of petroleum products (kerosene and gas oil) on mechanical properties of polymer modified self-compacting concrete (PMSCC) after different exposure periods of (30 ,60 ,90 ,and 180 days).

Two type of curing are used; 28 days in water for SCC and 2 days in water followed 26 days in air for PMSCC.

The test results show that the PMSCC (15% P/C ratio) which is exposed to oil products recorded a lower deterioration in compressive strength's values than reference concrete. The percentages of reduction in compressive strength values of PMSCC (15% P/C ratio) was

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
ANATOMICAL STUDY OF SOME SPECIES BELONGING TO THE PAPAVERACEAE FAMILY IN NORTH OF IRAQ
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    The anatomical features of leaves and stems of seven species belonging to five genera of the Papaveraceae family were studied, including: Fumaria bracteosa Pomel, 1875; Glaucium grandiflorum Boissier & A. Huet,1856; Hypecoum pendulum Linnaeus, 1753; Papaver fugax Poiret,1804; Papaver macrostomum Boissier & A. Huet, 1867; Papaver rhoeas Linnaeus, 1753 and Roemeria refracta de Candolle,1821. The results showed that the anticlinal cell walls of the adaxial surface were more thickened in P. fugax, H. pendulum, P. macrostomum and R.refracta, while it was thin in P. rhoeas. The cur

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Publication Date
Sun May 28 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Jour. For Pure & Appl. Sci
Synthesis of Some New Heterocyclic Fused Rings Compounds Based on 5-Aryl-1,3,4-Oxadiazole
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The work includes synthesis and characterization of some new heterocyclic compounds, as flow: The compound (3) (5-(4-chlorophenyl) -2-hydrazinyl-1,3,4-oxadiazole was synthesized by using two methods; the first method includes the direct reaction between hydrazine hydrate 80% and 5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2- (ethylthio) 1,3,4-oxadiazole (1), the second method involves converting 5-(4-chlorophenyl)-1,3,4-oxadiazol-2-amine (2) to diazonium salt then reducing this salt to compound (3) by stannous chloride. Compound (3) was used as starting material for synthesizing several fused heterocyclic compounds. The compound 6-(4- chlorophenyl)[1,2.4] triazolo [3,4,b][1,3,4] oxadiazole-3-(2H) thione (compound 4) was synthesized from the reaction of compo

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