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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of some robust methods to estimate parameters of partial least squares regression (PLSR)
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   The technology of reducing dimensions and choosing variables are very important topics in statistical analysis to multivariate. When two or more of the predictor variables are linked in the complete or incomplete regression relationships, a problem of multicollinearity are occurred which consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with incorrect estimates results.

 There are several methods proposed to address this problem, including the partial least squares (PLS), used to reduce dimensional regression analysis. By using linear transformations that convert a set of variables associated with a high link to a set of new independent variables and unr

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Publication Date
Mon May 22 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Measurement of Uranium Concentrations in Human Blood in Some the Regions of Baghdad Governorate
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The aim of this research is to determine the concentrations of uranium in human blood in some regions of Baghdad governorate and to determine the level of contamination with uranium for these regions during the (2003) war. The results obtained have shown that the maximum uranium concentration in blood samples was found (0.256 ppm) in AL-Zaifranea region and AL-Sader city,while the minimum in AL-Shab region (0.052 ppm) ,the minimum of uranium concentration in the blood samples was found to be (0.008 ppm) (male,39 years old) lived in AL-Shab region, while the maximum of uranium concentration in the blood samples was found to be (0.44 ppm) (female, 55 years old ) lived in  AL-Sader city.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 21 2023
Journal Name
Chemical Methodologies
Spectroscopic and Antimicrobial Studies of Some Metal Complexes of Furfural Schiff Base Derivative Ligand
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A new furfural Schiff base derivative ligand (L-FSB) named N-(4- Bromo-2-methylphenyl)-1-(furan-2-yl)methanimine, was synthesized from the condensation reaction of furfural (fur) with 4-Bromo-2- methylaniline (bma) in 1:1molar ratio. A new series of VO(II), Cr(III), Mn(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II), Zn(II), and Cd(II) metal complexes are synthesized according to the metal content analysis in an 2:1 ligand:metal ratio. The stereochemistry of the ligand complexes have been deduced by Fourier Transform-Infra Red (FT-IR), Atomic Adsorption (A.A), Ultra violate-Visible Spectra (UV-Vis Spectra), (Mass Spectra, Proton,13Carbon-Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) (1H-NMR,13CNMR) for ligand), magnetic susceptibility at 25oC and conductivity measurements. Fr

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 17 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Potential of some Plant Extracts as Radical Scavengers and Dipeptidyl Peptidase-4 Inhibitors
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Seeds, beans, leaves, fruit peel and seeds of five plants (Ferula assa-foetida, Coffea robusta, Olea europaea, Punica granatum and Vitis vinifera, respectively) were extracted with four solvents (distilled water, 80% methanol, 80% acetone and a mixed solvent that included methanol, ethanol, acetone and n-butanol at proportions 7:1:1:1). Such manipulation yielded 20 extracts, which were phytochemically analyzed for total polyphenols (TP) and flavonoids (TF). The DPPH (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging activity (RSA) and DPP-4 (dipeptidyl peptidase-4) relative inhibition activity (RIA) were also assessed for each extract. The results revealed that mixed solvent extract of V.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 17 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Extraction Behaviour of Dioctylamine and Tricaprylamine Toward Uranium and Some of the Metal Ins
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 The extraction behaviour of a secondary amine (Dioctylamine) and a combination of secondary amine and tertiary amine (Tricapryl amine) toward some of the metal ions were investigated. Two types of diluents were applied, namely, mesitylene and treated Kerosene fraction. The extractability of dioctylamine and different combinations of tertiary amine and secondary amine toward uranium were investigated. The distribution coefficients and the separataion factors of uranium from the metal ions were calculated.

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Cytotoxic effects of new synthesis heterocyclic derivatives of Amoxicillin on some cancer cell lines
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A new Schiff base [I] was prepared by refluxing Amoxicillin trihydrate and 4-Hydroxy- 3,5-dimethoxybenzaldehyde in aqueous methanol solution using glacial acetic acid as a catalyst. The new 1,3-oxazepine derivative [II] was obtained by Diels- Alder reaction of Schiff base [I] with phthalic anhydride in dry benzene. The reaction of Schiff base [I] with thioglycolic acid in dry benzene led to the formation of thiazolidin-4-one derivative [III]. While the imidazolidin-4-one [IV] derivative was produced by reacting the mentioned Schiff base [I] with glycine and triethylamine in ethanol for 9 hrs. Tetrazole derivative [V] was synthesized by refluxing Schiff base [I] with sodium azide in dimethylformamid DMF. The structure of synthesized compound

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2003
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Tropical Disease Researches
The isolation and identification of some pathogenic bacteria from clinical cutaneous infection in human
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Nuclear structure study of some tin isotopes using the self-consistent mean field method
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Hartree-Fock calculations for even-even Tin isotopes using
Skyrme density dependent effective nucleon-nucleon interaction are
discussed systematically. Skyrme interaction and the general formula
for the mean energy of a spherical nucleus are described. The charge
and matter densities with their corresponding rms radii and the
nuclear skin for Sn isotopes are studied and compared with the
experimental data. The potential energy curves obtained with
inclusion of the pairing force between the like nucleons in Hartree-
Fock-Bogoliubov approach are also discussed.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
STUDY THE EFFECTS OF SOME MECHANICAL FACTORS ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THE HAMMER MILL
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Publication Date
Wed May 27 2015
Journal Name
Diyala Journal For Pure Science
Synthesis And Characterization Of Some New Metals Complexes Of [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-4-methoxybenzamide]
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A new ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-4-methoxybenzamide](MAA) was synthesized by reaction of 4-methoxybenzoylisothiocyanate with 3-aminoacetophenone,The ligand was characterized by elemental microanalysis C.H.N.S, FT-IR, UV-Vis and 1H,13CNMR spectra, some transition metals complexes of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption, From obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(MAA)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral