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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A Vision to development the Islamic banks that operating under the financial system based on interest: (Iraq Case Study)
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This paper aims to build a modern vision for Islamic banks to ensure sustainability and growth, as well it aims to highlight the positive Iraqi steps in the Islamic banking sector. In order to build this vision, several scientific research approaches were adopted (quantitative, descriptive analytical, descriptive). As for the research community, it was for all the Iraqi private commercial banks, including Islamic banks. The research samples varied according to a diversity of the methods and the data availability. A questionnaire was constructed and conducted, measuring internal and external honesty. 50 questionnaires were distributed to Iraqi academic specialized in Islamic banking. All distributed forms were subject to a thorough analys

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Al-Rawandi and His Book “Rahat Il-Sudoor and Ayat Il-Suroor” A historical Study in Content and Style
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The Rwandan author of comfort chests and verse pleasure of the most important historians of the Seljuks in the sixth century AH / twelfth century and belongs to the mostly ethnic scientists family has won favor with the Sultans of the Seljuks until he became the most famous Markhém is his main source of research sources with respect to the political and social history the Seljuks and the relationship of the Seljuk sultans of the Abbasid caliphs in Baghdad.
The book included the history of the Seljuks from the time of statehood in the fifth century AH / atheist century AD until the death of the Sultan Tgrl bin Arslan year 590 AH / 1193 AD and then shed Akhawarzmeyen, and touched the author at the end of the book in separate chapters t

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
Arab World English Journal
Pedagogical Stylistics as a Tool in the Classroom: An Investigation of EFL Undergraduate Students' Ability in Analyzing Poetic Language
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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Onkologia I Radioterapia
The prevalence of lymph proliferative disorders in a group of Iraqi patients and its relation to blood indices parameters
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Abstract: Lymphoproliferative Disorders (LPDs) are a group of neoplasms affecting various cells within lymphoid system. Each type has different treatment a..70619

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Problems Facing Working Women in the Labor Market (The Mall) as a Model:a Field Study in Al-RusafaArea/ Baghdad
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Most studies and research have tried to shed light on unemployment and employment in general, with less focus on the problems facing working women and the resulting social and economic consequences that threaten their human and professional lives. For women, working is one of the basic necessities for the sustainability of human life, and it constitutes an essential axis for both sexes and through it. It also gives a person the status and social status where the individual finds a ready opportunity to practice his intentions and desires, test his abilities and talents, and achieve his ambitions. The availability of full employment in general and the joining of women to the labor market is an important and fundamental factor in the sustai

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 17 2023
Journal Name
Migration Letters
Employing the Teleological-Causal Presumption between Al-Khwarizmi and Ibn Yaish’s Explanations of Al-Mufasal (even) as a Model
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It is a moral presumption that includes the object for its sake, and it is called the object for it or the object for its sake, which is the present tense after (lam, ki, fa, willn, and then), and it is not an excuse for the occurrence of the matter (1), and it requires a connection between the two sides of (a cause with a cause) united by a reason for a specific purpose (2). The object has a reason or an excuse, because it is an explanation of what came before it, of the cause. The reason for the occurrence of the action, being the motive for causing the action and the bearer of it (3), indicates that the infinitive is restricted to a special reason. So if I said: (I came to you with the hope of honoring you), then I attributed the coming

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 25 2025
Journal Name
Mustansiriya Medical Journal
The Pattern Of Skin Diseases Among Kindergarten Children In Baghdad. A Comparative Study Between Two Surveys Five Years Apart
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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Advances In The Theory Of Nonlinear Analysis And Its Application
The Influence of the Magnetic Domain on The Peristaltic Motion of The Non-Newtonian Fluid in A Curved Tube
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Meta Gene
Association analysis of FTO gene polymorphisms rs9939609 and obesity risk among the adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis
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Scopus (10)
Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Aug 25 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of cortisol as salivary psychological stress marker in relation to temporomandibular disorders among a sample of dental students
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Background: University dental students perceived a higher level of stress prior to the final exam associated with raised salivary cortisol levels which could be considered as a useful noninvasive biomarker for measuring acute stress. Using a Helkimo anamnestic and clinical dysfunction scoring for temporomandibular disorders can give a better insight about the association of this marker and temporomandibular joint disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluation level of salivary cortisol in stressor students with temporomandibular disorder and the relation between this marker in relation to temporomandibular disorder severity. This might give a better understanding to the role of psychological stress as an etiological factor for developin

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